tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46929806731079663292024-03-14T05:23:34.071-07:00Infield ChatterThe creator and lead writer of Infield Chatter is a huge baseball fan who wrote the Strategy Session column for MLBTalk.com from 1999-2001. Infield Chatter is designed to provide coverage on all aspects of baseball -- from the hot stove league to college baseball and everything in between. Feedback is encouraged.Infield Chatterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13470098202281099640noreply@blogger.comBlogger57125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4692980673107966329.post-37212326019385725802020-12-04T05:29:00.001-08:002020-12-04T05:40:43.567-08:00Landing Spots for the Top 10 Non-Tendered Free Agents <p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirjaeJA9e3LzYPMf8UYhvkXNTqOZmzUq12YFq2wxdLqgLyBWQ2gjvy4fTIy2VyRAQYCcAS42iT06JV_Tg5viv2sqoOI4p6rBdlDEjtSMy9jprlyzikoTrJlkaazv6y9m64Bk7GYMIKIbVt/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirjaeJA9e3LzYPMf8UYhvkXNTqOZmzUq12YFq2wxdLqgLyBWQ2gjvy4fTIy2VyRAQYCcAS42iT06JV_Tg5viv2sqoOI4p6rBdlDEjtSMy9jprlyzikoTrJlkaazv6y9m64Bk7GYMIKIbVt/w459-h370/image.png" width="459" /></a></div><br />On Wednesday evening, the 30 Major League clubs did not
tender contracts to 59 players.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The list
of players non-tendered reads like a who’s who of former top prospects and guys
who have enjoyed ample success in the big leagues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Earlier this week, we revealed our <a href="https://theinfieldchatter.blogspot.com/2020/11/free-agency-2020-21-where-will-they-go.html">top
20 free agents along with predictions</a> for where they would land.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Today, we do the same for the 10 best “non-tenders”
who now are free agents themselves:<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst">1) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dahlda01-bat.shtml">David
Dahl</a>, OF—<b>Houston Astros</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
former 22<sup>nd</sup> ranked prospect (<i>Baseball America</i>, 2015) has an
All-Star Game appearance and three straight seasons with an OPS+ of 110 or higher
on his resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And if the 2021 season
begins on time, he’ll still be only 26.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
the Astros lose <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brantmi02.shtml">Michael
Brantley</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml">Josh
Reddick</a>, they’ll be in the market for a left-handed bat who can play
multiple OF positions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>St. Louis, where
corner OF starters <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oneilty01.shtml">Tyler O’Neill</a>
and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fowlede01.shtml">Dexter
Fowler</a> had respective OPS+ marks of 68 and 92, is another possible
destination.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">2) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schwaky01.shtml">Kyle
Schwarber</a>, DH/OF—<b>New York Yankees</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Sure, with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml">Giancarlo Stanton</a>
firmly entrenched as the DH and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frazicl01.shtml">Clint
Frazier</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml">Aaron Judge</a>,
and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/voitlu01.shtml">Luke
Voit</a> populating the corner OF and 1B positions, Schwarber seems like a poor
fit in the South Bronx.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But then picture
Schwarber’s pull-oriented left-handed swing peppering the short RF porch in Yankee
Stadium for an easy 40 dingers and, suddenly, this marriage becomes a lot
easier to imagine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In yesterday’s <i>New
York Post</i>, <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/12/03/two-ways-yankees-can-make-kyle-schwarber-fit-with-roster/">Joel
Sherman explains how this could work</a>.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">3) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosared01.shtml">Eddie
Rosario</a>, OF—<b>Cleveland Indians</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Beauty’s in the eye of the beholder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Although Rosario has exactly one season with a bWAR higher than 2.2, he
seems like the second coming of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml">Babe Ruth</a>
when compared to the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mendoma01.shtml">Mario
Mendoza</a> clones that patrolled the Indians’ OF in 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t believe us?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, Rosario’s bWAR of 0.9 dwarfed the <b><i>combined</i></b>
bWAR of -1.8 (yes, friends, that was a negative number) posted by the <b><i>five</i></b>
Indians’ outfielders with the most ABs in 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In other words, expect Cleveland to do something to fix its OF this
winter and Rosario is as cost efficient a solution as you’ll find on the open
market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Tigers, White Sox, and Red
Sox head the list of other potential suitors.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">4) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duvalad01.shtml">Adam Duvall</a>,
OF/DH—<b>Minnesota Twins</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’s not
sexy, but Duvall is a proven power source who can hold his own defensively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He hit over 30 bombs in 2016 and 2017 and put
another 26 in the seats in just 310 ABs in 2019-20, though his OBP has always
been putrid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t be surprised if the
Twins come calling if they and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cruzne02.shtml">Nelson Cruz</a>
don’t reach a deal.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">5) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodonca01.shtml">Carlos
Rodon</a>, LHP—<b>Seattle Mariners</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
former third overall pick in 2014, Rodon never came close to fulfilling the
lofty expectations we all harbored on draft night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Still, he has a nuclear arsenal at his
disposal and will only turn 28 next week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The best fit for Rodon would be a team not expected to win in 2021 and thus
comfortable throwing him out there every five days, even with occasional
suboptimal results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Mariners make
perfect sense.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">6) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlar01.shtml">Archie
Bradley</a>, RHP—<b>Philadelphia Phillies</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Phillies’ bullpen woes are baseball’s worst-kept secret, and Bradley
is a high-upside arm that will come relatively cheap.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">7) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alberha01.shtml">Hanser
Alberto</a>, 2B—<b>St. Louis Cardinals</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Though Alberto isn’t near the player <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wongko01.shtml">Kolten Wong</a>
has been in the past, don’t be shocked if the Red Birds play a little game of
salary arbitrage, swapping Wong’s $12.5 million 2021 option for a salary not
more than one-fifth that amount.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">8) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mazarno01.shtml#all_resources_other">Nomar
Mazara</a>, OF—<b>Detroit Tigers</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Tigers will be vying for one of the free agent corner outfielders from a list
that includes <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pederjo01.shtml">Joc
Pederson</a>, Rosario, and Dahl, with Mazara as the possible consolation
prize.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As poor as Mazara’s 2020 was, he’s
still a far better player than <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stewach02.shtml">Christin
Stewart</a>, Detroit’s incumbent LF.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
he’s only 25.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to <i>The
Athletic’s</i> <a href="https://theathletic.com/2235960/2020/12/03/tigers-non-tendered-players-kyle-schwarber/">Cody
Stavenhagen, Detroit briefly pursued a trade for Mazara last offseason.</a></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">9) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/almoral01.shtml">Albert
Almora</a>, OF—<b>New York Mets</b>: The sixth overall pick from the 2012
draft, Almora’s bat has never developed as originally anticipated, and his inability
to walk and lack of power likely mean his days as an everyday starter are over.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That said, his dazzling defense and youth
(still 26) should make him appealing as a top-flight fourth OF to a host of
playoff contending teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Mets, especially
if they don’t land <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/springe01.shtml">George
Springer</a>, along with the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros all quickly come to
mind.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast">10) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casalcu01.shtml">Curt Casali</a>,
C—<b>Seattle Mariners</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Casali has
created a nice niche for himself as a back-up catcher who can catch one-third
to one-half of his team’s games without embarrassing himself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Mariners could strike again—the team will
be hesitant to rely solely on youngsters Luis Torrens and Cal Raleigh behind
the dish as they continue to introduce an impressive stable of talented arms
into the bigs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any team that loses out
in the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanja02.shtml">James
McCann</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml">Yadier
Molina</a> sweepstakes, such as the Mets, Phillies, and Cardinals, could also be
in the running for the Vanderbilt alum.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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following 2020’s bastardized 60-game season, and Major League Baseball possibly
12 short months away from labor Armageddon, there’s no better time than the
present to handicap the destinations for this offseason’s 20 top free agents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Did we mention money is scarce?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to Commissioner Ron Manfred, <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2914363-rob-manfred-says-mlb-teams-combined-for-3-billion-in-losses-amid-covid-19">MLB’s
30 teams lost a combined $3 billion in 2020</a>, a development which will
surely adversely affect paydays this winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That said, the arrival of hedge fund mogul Steve Cohen in Queens and the
likely December introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine (which should help ensure fans
will be in the stands for most, if not all, of 2021), should at least partially
mitigate the financial carnage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p class="MsoNormal">So, without further ado, let’s see where everyone goes:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst">1) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/springe01.shtml">George
Springer</a>, OF—New York Mets, 5 Years/$125 million: Sure, he just turned 31, but Springer is this
winter’s best all-round mercenary who’s showed no signs of aging. And combine that with a new Mets owner
(Cohen) who not only is richer than all of his contemporaries but also has an
extra $20 million to burn following <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml">Robinson
Cano’s</a> second PED suspension. Inking
Springer will allow the Mets to upgrade their entire OF defense by putting <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=nimmo-000bra">Brandon
Nimmo</a> back in a corner slot.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">2) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/realmjt01.shtml">J.T.
Realmuto</a>, C—Philadelphia Phillies, 5 Years/$120 million: Signing a soon-to-be 30-year-old backstop to
this mega contract as baseball remains stuck in a financial crevice may not
seem like a good idea, but let’s not forget that the Phillies are not exactly
in a position of strength. Even after
signing high-priced free agents <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml">Bryce
Harper</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wheelza01.shtml">Zack
Wheeler</a> and trading for Realmuto during the last two offseasons, the
Phillies haven’t been any better than mediocre.
Losing the 2-time All Star would just make the climb towards competitiveness
that much steeper.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">3) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml">Trevor
Bauer</a>, RHP—New York Mets, 5 years/$140 million: Yes, we’ve heard all the talk about Bauer’s
desire to sign 1-year deals for the rest of his career, but seeing is
believing. A hotly contested bidding war
will likely ensue for the services of the UCLA alum, with the likes of the Dodgers,
Angels, Padres, Yankees, Braves, and Blue Jays all vying for Bauer to grab
their Montblanc. But don’t sleep on the
Metropolitans, who still have a hole in their pitching staff after <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml">Jacob
DeGrom</a> and will be buoyed by Cohen’s zillions.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">4) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lemahdj01.shtml">D.J.
LeMahieu</a>, 2B—New York Yankees, 4 years/$72 million: LeMahieu was little more than an afterthought
when he signed with the Bronx Bombers following the 2018 season, but two Silver
Slugger awards later, retaining the former LSU star is front and center on GM
Brian Cashman’s to-do list. Although he
turns 33 next year, LeMahieu’s prowess on both offense and defense shouldn’t
preclude him from securing a long-term deal.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">5) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ozunama01.shtml">Marcell Ozuna</a>,
DH/OF—Toronto Blue Jays, 3 years/$55 million:
The Blue Jays’ brain trust has gone on record this fall stating that it
won’t shy away from big names, and following his resurgence in 2020, Ozuna is
just the big bat Toronto needs to take the pressure off its young core. The White Sox and Twins, assuming they don’t
re-sign <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cruzne02.shtml">Nelson
Cruz</a>, will also be in play. Finally,
to date Manfred has not decided whether the NL will once again carry the DH, a
development (or lack thereof) that will impact both Ozuna and Cruz. </p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">6) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brantmi02.shtml">Michael
Brantley</a>, OF/DH—Atlanta Braves, 2 years/$30 million: With <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml">Nick
Markakis</a><span class="MsoHyperlink">’</span> run as Atlanta’s RF most likely coming
to an end and youngster <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=waters002dre">Drew
Waters</a> not ready for prime time, Brantley would serve as a perfect stopgap for
the Braves. Despite turning 34 next May,
Brantley is still well above average on both sides of the ball and shouldn’t break
the bank.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">7) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cruzne02.shtml">Nelson Cruz</a>,
DH—Chicago White Sox, 2 years/$25 million:
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml">Edwin
Encarnacion</a> struck out as Chicago’s resident veteran slugger, but the South
Siders should have more luck with Cruz, as his stellar numbers would
attest. The presence of phenom <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=vaughn000and">Andrew
Vaughn</a>, which will make first baseman <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml">Jose Abreu</a>
the full-time DH sooner rather than later, would probably prevent Chicago from committing
more than two years to Cruz.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">8) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turneju01.shtml">Justin
Turner</a>, 3B—Los Angeles Dodgers, 2 years/$32 million: As <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-dodgers-possibilities">JP Morosi</a>
and <a href="https://theathletic.com/1558465/2020/01/27/bowden-the-rockies-trading-nolan-arenado-is-all-but-inevitable-which-teams-are-most-likely-to-make-a-deal/">Jim
Bowden</a> (subscription required) have recently pointed out, Rockies superstar
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml">Nolan
Arenado</a> could be an enticing option for the newly minted world champion
Dodgers. However, we urge caution—prior to
the February trade for and extension of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml">Mookie
Betts</a>, LA rarely pursued big ticket items.
And Turner, a Lakewood, CA native and Cal State Fullerton product, would
like nothing more than to conclude his career with his hometown team.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">9) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gregodi01.shtml">Didi
Gregorius</a>, SS—Cincinnati Reds, 3 years/$45 million: New Reds GM Nick Krall
is in a bind, guiding a small-market club with a closing window to
contend. Enter Gregorius, who’s an
accomplished SS with a powerful bat tailor made for the Great American Bandb…err,
we mean Ballpark. Sir Didi would block
prospect <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcijo02.shtml">Jose
Garcia</a>, who could then be used as trade fodder to land a power bat or
reliable starter.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">10) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tanakma01.shtml">Masahiro
Tanaka</a>, RHP—Washington Nationals, 1 year/$16 million: We don’t see the 32-year-old Tanaka, who’s
pitched for years with an elbow ligament tear, getting anything more than a
1-year deal. The Nationals, who might
lose their ace <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml">Max Scherzer</a>
to free agency after next season, seem like the ideal team to lure Tanaka with
a pricey one-year contract. The starting
quartet of Scherzer, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml">Stephen
Strasburg</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/corbipa01.shtml">Patrick
Corbin</a>, and Tanaka might be just the fearsome foursome needed to pitch the Nats
back into contention.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">11) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pederjo01.shtml">Joc Pederson</a>,
OF—Cleveland Indians, 2 years/$20 million:
The Tribe has gotten virtually no offense in recent years from its OF
corps, and the signing of Pederson would change that. While his difficulties against southpaws are
well documented, he’s a legitimate 30-HR bat whose defense is best suited for a
corner.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">12) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml">Andrelton
Simmons</a>, SS—Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years/$33 million: Simmons’ once sterling dWAR numbers (as
measured by Baseball Reference) declined every year in 2017-19; however, he’d still
be a good consolation prize for Philadelphia if Gregorius leaves.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">13) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml">J.A. Happ</a>,
LHP—Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year/$13 million:
Happ has already spent parts of six seasons north of the border,
including a banner 2016 campaign which saw him go 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and
sterling 1.17 WHIP. At 38 and coming off
another fine—albeit abbreviated—season, he’d be the perfect guy for the Blue
Jays to throw short term cash at.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">14) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/odorija01.shtml">Jake
Odorizzi</a>, RHP—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 1 year/$12 million: Odorizzi looked like he had turned a corner
in 2019, but suffered through an injury plagued 2020. The Angels, desperate for pitching, would be
the perfect team to entice the veteran righty with a “pillow” contract.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">15) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wongko01.shtml">Kolten Wong</a>,
2B—Washington Nationals, 2 years/$20 million:
It’s a sign of the times that Wong’s 2021 option for $12.5 million was
not exercised by the Cardinals. Just one
year ago he was coming off a 5.2 bWAR season and looked like he’d be a bulwark
in Mike Schildt’s lineup for years to come.
Wong’s speed and smooth defense would be an excellent fit for the
Nationals as they try to claw their way back to respectability in the tough-as-nails
NL East.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">16) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrli01.shtml">Liam
Hendricks</a>, RHP—Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years/$35 million: This was perhaps the easiest connection on
the whole list. The Phillies desperately
need a closer and Hendricks is the best one available. End.
Of. Story.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">17) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paxtoja01.shtml">James Paxton</a>,
LHP—Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year/$12 million:
If there ever was a pillow contract candidate, this is the guy. Paxton suffered through a nightmarish 2020 but
boasts a solid track record, having averaged about 150 IP and 3.0 bWAR in 2017-2019. The Jays would be eager to take a flyer on this
high-upside native Canadian on a low-risk contract.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">18) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/semiema01.shtml">Marcus
Semien</a>, SS—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3 years/$35 million: While most of the Angels’ efforts this
offseason will be focused on landing some arms for their beleaguered rotation, they’ll
also be forced to find a SS if Simmons leaves.
Semien’s profile isn’t all that dissimilar from Simmons’, but if his
banner 2019 is any indication, he offers more offense.</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">19) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlja02.shtml">Jackie
Bradley Jr.</a>, OF—Houston Astros, 2 years/$20: The Astros, faced with the prospect of losing
Brantley and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml">Josh
Reddick</a> from their OF corps this winter, could look to pounce on Bradley
and his world-class glove in CF. Bradley’s
inconsistent bat would be at least partially offset by the emergence of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml">Kyle Tucker</a>
and the rest of Houston’s high-powered lineup.</p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast">20) <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosentr01.shtml">Trevor
Rosenthal</a>, RHP—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3 years/$30 million: Two years removed from Tommy John surgery,
Rosenthal was his old dominant self in 2020, which will set off a bidding war
this winter. Once again, the Angels, in
an effort to build a winner during <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml">Mike Trout</a><span class="MsoHyperlink">’s</span> prime, will be poised to strike. <o:p></o:p></p><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items. For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era. Here's the Amazon link: </i></span><a href="https://goo.gl/rdnvQG" style="background-color: white; color: #039be5; font-family: roboto, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; white-space: nowrap;">goo.gl/rdnvQG</a> <i>Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)</i><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
It was supposed to be easy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Take all the young talent acquired from the trades of established
veterans, combine it with an infusion of several years’ worth of premium picks
(the result of multiple consecutive 100-loss seasons, of course), fill in any
remaining holes with strategic free agent signings, and then, finally, plan the
World Series parade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was the exact
blueprint the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros used en route to respective 2016
and 2017 World Series victories, and the Detroit Tigers would employ the same
plan to build juggernaut from scratch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Or so they thought.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Given that it’s been barely a year since Tigers GM Al Avila
publicly set the Tigers on their new course, it’s far too early to panic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, a number of serious issues have
surfaced that have led more than one analyst to question whether this iteration
of the reconstruction will be the one that comes to fruition.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The biggest problem with Detroit’s rebuild—and the way in
which it completely differs from what happened in Chicago and Houston—is that
it is based almost entirely around young pitching, a risky proposition given
the alarmingly high attrition rate of baby-faced hurlers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
From the onset of their tenure in Chicago, Theo Epstein
& Co understood the potential pitfalls surrounding young pitchers and
therefore opted to instead select the likes of OF <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/almoral01.shtml" target="_blank">Albert Almora</a></span>, 3B <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bryankr01.shtml" target="_blank">Kris Bryant</a></span>, and OF <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schwaky01.shtml" target="_blank">Kyle Schwarber</a> </span>with the Cubs’ first-round picks. And the Astros followed a similar route,
adding SS <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml" target="_blank"><span style="color: #351c75;">Carlos Correa</span></a>
and 3B <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml" target="_blank">Alex Bregman</a> </span>to a young positional corps
that already featured 2B <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml" target="_blank">Jose Altuve</a> </span>and OF <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/springe01.shtml" target="_blank">George Springer</a> </span>(though, in fairness, it must be noted
that Houston failed miserably with the selections of pitchers <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=appel-001mar" target="_blank"><span style="color: #351c75;">Mark Appel</span> </a>and <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=aiken-000bra" target="_blank">Brady Aiken</a></span>). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All of the aforementioned young hitters played a big role in
the Cubs and Astros’ championship runs, while the pitching chores for both clubs
were for the most part handled by guys who were mid-career acquisitions and
thus not susceptible to the high attrition rates that plague young pitchers.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Think about this:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>12
of the 17 postseason starts made by Cubs pitchers in 2016 were made by guys Chicago
acquired after their age 23 season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Similarly, only seven of Houston’s 18 postseason games in 2017 were started
by pitchers acquired by the ‘Stros prior to their 24<sup>th</sup> birthday.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Tigers, apparently, haven’t read the memo and are
already beginning to experience the risks associated with their strategy of
building around arms as opposed to bats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=perez-019fra" target="_blank">Franklin Perez</a></span>, 20, the headliner of last
August’s trade which sent long-time ace <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a> to Houston, boasts
three above-average pitches and has been viewed by many as a future #2
starter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, the young Venezuelan
missed the first half of this season with a lat strain before getting lit up to
the tune of a 6.52 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 19.1 rehab innings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this week Detroit shut Perez down for the
remainder of the season with shoulder inflammation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though Perez is still extremely young and
boasts excellent stuff, his struggles this year have raised doubts surrounding
his long-term durability.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=faedo-000ale" target="_blank">Alex Faedo</a></span>, Detroit’s
first-round selection last year, has had a decent season if you look at the
numbers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if you talk to scouts, they’ll
say that Faedo’s fastball has fallen several ticks to the 90-91 MPH range and
his changeup is a 45 on the standard 20-80 scouting scale.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a recipe for bullpen arm, assuming
nothing changes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With some of Detroit’s best pitching prospects taking their
lumps, the onus has fallen to the organization’s young hitters to pick up the
slack.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem is, however, that the
team simply does not boast the high-end positional talent necessary to
kickstart a successful rebuild.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=stewar004chr" target="_blank">Christin Stewart</a> </span>is the Tigers’
“premier” power prospect and supposed left fielder of the future, but his
mediocre .256/.340/.470 slash line entering play on Friday as a 24-year-old at
Triple A Toledo does not bode well for the future. In addition, the lead-footed, defensively-challenged
Stewart will likely be a liability in the vast pasture that is Comerica Park’s
outfield.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Stewart’s teammate, <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lugo--000daw" target="_blank">Dawel Lugo</a></span>,
was the key return piece in the <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml" target="_blank">J.D. Martinez</a> </span>trade
to Arizona. Detroit’s front office was
hopeful that Lugo would step into the 2019 lineup at second base, but the
23-year-old’s .268/.280/.349 effort this season has sparked fears that he may
be nothing more than <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machadi01.shtml" target="_blank">Dixon Machado</a></span> in disguise.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=camero000daz" target="_blank">Daz Cameron</a></span> was another
player Detroit obtained in exchange for Verlander.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After two rough years following his signing
by Houston in 2015, Cameron enjoyed a renaissance last season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What followed was a subpar .259/.346/.370
performance in 246 plate appearances at High A Lakeland until he was unexpectedly
promoted to AA Erie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although Cameron’s .301/.385/.510
at Double A represents a drastic improvement over his performance at Lakeland,
beware of a red herring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not only is his
.376 BABIP unsustainable in the long run, but his total numbers have been
greatly inflated by the fact that he plays half his games within the very cozy
confines of UPMC Park—his road numbers (.790 OPS, no home runs) pale in comparison
with what he’s done at home (.977 OPS, five home runs).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, Cameron should receive credit for
improving his strikeout rate from 28.6 percent to 22.5 percent since the
promotion.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rogers003jak" target="_blank">Jake Rogers</a></span>, 23, was the
final piece to the Verlander trade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Always
regarded as a defense-first catcher, there was optimism after a 2017 campaign that
saw him hit .261 with 18 homers spread out across 422 at bats between Low and
High A ball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately, Rogers has
experienced a serious regression this year, hitting just .201 with 90
strikeouts in approximately 300 plate appearances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of all the Tigers’ positional prospects in full-season ball,
<span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=parede000isa" target="_blank">Isaac Paredes</a> </span>is the best bet to eventually make
an impact at the big-league level. Just
19, Paredes has already been promoted to Erie, where’s he’s continued to show
the uncanny ability to barrel the baseball while keeping his strikeouts to a
minimum. However, at 5-11 and 225
pounds, conditioning is Paredes’ biggest problem. It’s a near certainty that he’ll have to move
off of shortstop, and if he’s not careful his propensity to add bad weight will
prohibit him from reaching his lofty ceiling.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Detroit’s second-round selection of 1B <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rivera000rey" target="_blank">Reynaldo Rivera</a> </span>last year was viewed as an aggressive
overdraft, with many Tigers’ followers concerned that Rivera would evolve into
a left-handed hitting version of <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=strieb001rya" target="_blank">Ryan Strieby</a></span>. Rivera’s performance this season has done
nothing to assuage those fears. The
6-06, 250-pound Rivera’s a one-dimensional player, and his .750 OPS combined
with a K-rate in excess of 26 percent while being old for Low A ball makes it
unlikely that he’ll develop into a major contributor for the parent club.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With Detroit’s main prospects having a down year, the
disappointment that emanated from Tigerland when the organization failed to
complete a major deal prior to the July 31<sup>st</sup> non-waiver trade deadline
was understandable. Although many fans
blamed Avila for Detroit’s inactivity, it was not Avila’s fault—the Tigers have
simply run out of good players to trade.
Despite an excellent first two seasons, untapped potential, and multiple
years of team control remaining, righthander <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fulmemi01.shtml" target="_blank">Michael Fulmer</a> </span>has regressed this season and has an injury history to go along
with a violent delivery. And OF <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml" target="_blank">Nick Castellanos</a></span>, his well-honed offensive game
notwithstanding, is barely a 2.5-bWAR player because of shoddy defense and poor
speed. Going forward, Castellanos’ trade
value will be further hindered by the fact that he’ll be a free agent following
the 2019 season thus be viewed as a mere rental. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ironically, the frustrations the Tigers experienced at during
this week’s trade deadline have been compounded by Detroit’s unexpected “success”
this season. You read that correctly—instead
of taking a nosedive and again securing the first pick in next year’s draft,
the Tigers have been semi-competitive and would be awarded the eighth selection
in the 2019 draft if this season ended Thursday night. And while the difference between the first
and eighth pick may seem like semantics to some baseball fans, those seven
picks in between could mean the difference between <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=386157" target="_blank">Bobby Witt Jr.</a> </span>(a potential franchise-chasing, five-tool shortstop) and <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://baylorbears.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=47" target="_blank">Shea Langeliers</a> </span>(a projected above-average big-league
regular behind the dish). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite all the negatives cited in this column, there is
still a glimmer of hope—albeit, just a glimmer—that this version of a rebuild
will produce a consistent contender.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maybe this year’s first overall draft pick, <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mize--000cas" target="_blank">Casey Mize</a></span>, will beat the odds and enjoy a long,
fruitful career as a splitter-firing <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tanakma01.shtml" target="_blank">Masahiro Tanaka</a> </span>clone. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maybe this year’s second-round pick, <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=meadow000par" target="_blank">Parker Meadows</a>, </span>will fulfill his vast potential and one day become
a 30-30 center fielder. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maybe righthander <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mannin002mat" target="_blank">Matt Manning</a> </span>will
continue his impressive ascent up the minor league ladder and team with Mize to
give Detroit a two-headed monster at the front of its rotation in several years.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maybe Paredes will shed 35 pounds and be the A.L.’s next
great two-way shortstop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maybe Fulmer will return fully recovered in 2019 and be the
centerpiece of a blockbuster at next year’s deadline that brings in a bounty of
top prospects.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maybe Detroit will lose 108 games next season and select Arkansas
slugger <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.arkansasrazorbacks.com/roster/heston-kjerstad/" target="_blank">Heston Kjerstad</a> </span>with the first overall
pick in the 2020 draft. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And maybe, just maybe, they’ll have to plan a World Series
parade down Woodward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Or maybe you’ll read a column five years from now urging
Detroit to trade Mize for a haul of prospects. <o:p></o:p></div>
<br /></div>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items. For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era. Here's the Amazon link: </i></span><a href="https://goo.gl/rdnvQG" style="background-color: white; color: #039be5; font-family: roboto, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; white-space: nowrap;">goo.gl/rdnvQG</a> <i>Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)</i><br />
<br />
In the <a href="https://theinfieldchatter.blogspot.com/2018/06/the-cleveland-indians-are-far-from.html" target="_blank">June 21<sup>st</sup></a>
edition of Infield Chatter, we recommended that the Cleveland Indians, in an
effort to plug their leaky bullpen, should should acquire reliever <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yateski01.shtml" target="_blank">Kirby Yates</a> from the San Diego Padres.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On Thursday, the Indians agreed to a swap
with the Padres, but instead of picking up Yates, they went for the gusto and
landed southpaw closer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/handbr01.shtml" target="_blank">Brad Hand</a> and lefty setup
man <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cimbead01.shtml" target="_blank">Adam Cimber</a></span> in exchange for catching
prospect <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mejiafr01.shtml" target="_blank">Francisco Mejia</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This blockbuster has four fascinating subplots with
reverberations that will be felt throughout baseball for the remainder of the
season as well as in subsequent years. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1) The Big Three in
the A.L. are now the Big Four.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Prior to this trade, the Indians bullpen was the team’s Achilles
heel and prevented the Tribe from being included in the conversation with the
A.L.’s three “super teams,” the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the season’s first half, Cleveland’s
bullpen had a 5.28 ERA, good for second-worst in all of baseball and better
only than the lowly Royals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In Hand, Cleveland now has a Swiss Army knife for its
beleaguered pen—he’s capable of multi-inning stints (10 of his 41 appearances
have gone longer than an inning), he can close, and most importantly, he’s nails
against both right-handed and left-handed hitters (he's held lefties to a .148 batting average
while limiting righties to a .229 mark).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Indians fans should be excited about Cimber as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though Cimber’s not as sexy as Hand, he’s been
money in 2018 and will provide Indians skipper Terry Francona with a viable
late-inning setup option.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cimber is not
an enforcer with a supersonic fastball; instead, he deploys his high-80’s
sinker and high-70’s slider with immaculate precision to generate plenty of
swings-and-misses as well as ground ball outs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The 27-year-old Cimber also doesn’t walk anyone, as indicated by his
pristine 5.1 K/BB ratio, and keeps the ball in the yard (just two
long balls allowed).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Combine Cleveland’s postseason rotation quartet of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml" target="_blank">Corey Kluber</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml" target="_blank">Trevor Bauer</a>,
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carraca01.shtml" target="_blank">Carlos Carrasco</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clevimi01.shtml" target="_blank">Mike Clevinger</a>, with a drastically improved bullpen (that would also be
bolstered by the edition of #5 starter <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biebesh01.shtml" target="_blank">Shane Bieber</a>),
and you’ve got a pitching corps that will be able to shut down the Astros, Red
Sox, or anyone else come October.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2) They're
celebrating in the streets of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and South Beach.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With the Indians forced to cede a consensus top-25 prospect
in Mejia, expect the Reds, Pirates, and Marlins to extract a bounty for <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/iglesra01.shtml" target="_blank">Raisel Iglesias</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverfe01.shtml" target="_blank">FelipeVazquez</a>, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/barraky01.shtml" target="_blank">Kyle Barraclough</a>,
respectively.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Look, as starters exit games earlier than ever—especially in
the postseason—the value of relievers has skyrocketed, especially those who can
erase both lefties and righties in late-inning, high-leverage situations and those
under club control for multiple seasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And Iglesias, Vazquez, and Barraclough check both of those boxes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Currently, the Cubs, who just placed closer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml" target="_blank">Brandon Morrow</a> on the DL, Red Sox, Braves, and Dodgers
all have sizable holes in their bullpens that must be plugged.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, as economics teaches us, when supply is
less than demand…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">3) The Indians’
window just got a little bigger.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cleveland president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff
made this trade with more than just 2018 in mind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Injured setup man extraordinaire <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millean01.shtml" target="_blank">Andrew Miller</a> and closer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allenco01.shtml" target="_blank">Cody Allen</a> can both walk as free agents after this season, and, due to the
escalating salaries of relievers, will likely leave small-market
Cleveland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But with Hand owed a
reasonable $16.5 million thru 2020 with a $10 million option for 2021 and
Cimber not even arbitration eligible, the Indians’ brain trust already has two future
bullpen pieces in place.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now combine all this with the fact that the Indians’ two
best players, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirjo01.shtml" target="_blank">Jose Ramirez</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml" target="_blank">Francisco Lindor</a>, are still under control for years to
come—including two team options, Ramirez’ contract runs through 2023 and Lindor
will not become a free agent until after 2021—while all of Cleveland’s vaunted
starters have nowhere to go until at least 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other words, don’t expect the Indians to
go away anytime soon.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">4) The Dodgers will
have some stiff competition in 2021.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s quite possible that LA, owned by investment titan Guggenheim Partners,
buoyed by billions in TV revenue, and run by arguably the sport’s sharpest
front office, will continue to have a choke hold over the N.L. West much like
the Yankees have dominated the A.L. for the last quarter century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But it’s also possible that the Padres, owners of baseball’s
deepest farm system, will one day put a dent in the Dodgers’ plans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It wasn’t enough for the Friars to have a 19-year-old who’s
evoked <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a> comparisons in <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=tatis-003fer" target="_blank">Fernando Tatis Jr</a>, a 21-year-old who scouts swear will
win a batting title in <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=urias-000lui" target="_blank">Luis Urias</a>, or an
18-year-old in <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ornela000tir" target="_blank">Tirso Ornelas</a> who’s already
posting a higher-than-league-average OPS in full-season ball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nor were the Padres content with about a
dozen high-ceiling pitching prospects dispersed throughout all levels of the
minors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nah, Padres GM A.J. Preller felt
compelled to add Mejia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And all Mejia
has done in his brief minor-league career is notch a 50-game hitting streak
while batting just shy of .300 and flashing an arm that rates as at least 70 on
the standard 20-80 scale.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While the Dodgers are the Best of the West in 2018, 2021 may
be a far different story. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="font-family: inherit;">(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items. For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era. Here's the Amazon link: </span></i></span><a href="https://goo.gl/rdnvQG" style="background-color: white; color: #039be5; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: nowrap;">goo.gl/rdnvQG</a> <i>Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)</i><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Things have not been this good in the Atlanta Braves’ player
development ranks in decades. Uber
phenom </span><span style="color: red; font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/acunaro01.shtml" target="_blank">Ronald Acuna</a> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">has made a significant
contribution to the playoff-contending big-league club. 3B Austin Riley has hit with power while
displaying </span><span style="color: red; font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">esque qualities on defense
at AA and AAA. And RHPs </span><span style="color: red; font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sorokmi01.shtml" target="_blank">Mike Soroka</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wright003kyl" target="_blank">Kyle Wright</a></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">, </span><span style="color: red; font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=toussa000tou" target="_blank">Touki Toussaint</a></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">, </span><span style="color: red; font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=anders000ian" target="_blank">Ian Anderson</a></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">, and a host of
other minor league hurlers have made huge strides in 2018 as they position
themselves to propel a burgeoning juggernaut into the 2020’s.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">But the most overlooked development in the system so far
this season has been the emergence of CF <span style="color: red;"><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=waters002dre" target="_blank">Drew Waters</a> </span>into
one of the most exciting five-tool prospects in the minors. Waters, Atlanta’s second-round pick last
year, has made enormous progress in his first stab at full-season ball and positioned
himself as the Braves’ next superstar in waiting.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Although Waters’ speed, athleticism, and switch-hitting
ability catapulted him into the first-round conversation last year, questions
surrounding his power and overall ceiling pushed him down to the second round,
where the Braves selected him with the 41<sup>st</sup> overall pick. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">There have been two keys to Waters’ breakout in 2018. First, and most importantly, has been his improved ability to make contact. In 165
plate appearances at Danville in the Appalachian League last year (following a
successful introductory stint in the Gulf Coast League), Waters’ K rate was a
staggering 36 percent. This season, in 304
PAs at Rome in the more challenging South Atlantic League—where, at 19, he’s more
than two years younger than the average player—Waters has almost cut his K rate
in half to 19 percent. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Such drastic improvement is almost unheard of and portends
well for Waters as he climbs the developmental ladder and faces more advanced
pitching.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The second key to Waters’ emergence has been his growing
power. Once again, Waters has exhibited
dramatic improvement in such a condensed time period. After posting an isolated power of .128 at
Danville, Waters has run his ISO all the way up to .220 at Rome. Although the native Georgian has just 8 home
runs after not quite two-thirds of the way through the 2018 campaign, his 26
doubles and six triples suggest that the balls Waters is now driving to the
gaps will wind up over the fence in several years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Assuming Waters continues to hone his offensive game in
coming seasons, the rest of his skills portfolio should allow him to evolve
into a budding superstar. His 60 speed
(on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale) means that he’ll be able to stick in
center field, but his strong, accurate arm would permit a shift to right
field in deference to Acuna. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Waters’ speed has also been an asset on the basepaths, where he’s
15 for 18 in stolen bases. And the 6-02,
185-pound Waters’ lithe physique should enable him to add strength without losing
a step, thus making 20 steals a season probable and 30 thefts not out of the
question.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Although Waters still has facets of his game
that need improvement—namely his performance against southpaws, against whom he’s
slashing only .202/.230/.286—his broad tool set combined with the substantial
progress he’s made in such a short time could mean the Braves have
yet another future star in their pipeline.</span></span></div>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
With MLB’s customary mid-summer
trade winds starting to gust as we approach the July 31<sup>st</sup> non-waiver
trade deadline, playoff contenders are once again scouring the market for
pitching reinforcements that they hope will turn World Series dreams into
reality come October. Although the Los
Angeles Angels of Anaheim open play on Friday a distant 13.5 games behind the
A.L. West-leading Houston Astros and 12 games in back of the Mariners, who are in
pole position for the second wild card, don’t be shocked if the Halos
aggressively pursue a headline pitching addition as well as other roster
enhancements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At 38-51, the Detroit Tigers are
buried in the standings and in the middle of a lengthy rebuild. Thus, as Crazy Eddie used to say in the
1980’s, everything must go. “Everything”
in this case includes <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fulmemi01.shtml" target="_blank">Michael Fulmer</a><span style="color: #00b050;">, </span>Detroit’s ace, and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml" target="_blank">Nick Castellanos</a>, its third-place hitter and
right fielder.<span style="color: #00b050;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #00b050;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>The Trade:</u></b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Tigers trade Fulmer and Castellanos to
the Angels for 1B <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=thaiss000mat" target="_blank">Matt Thaiss</a>, OF <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=marsh-000bra" target="_blank">Brandon Marsh</a>, and RHP <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cannin000gri" target="_blank">Griffin Canning</a>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #00b050;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>What the Angels are getting:</u></b> A frontline
starter to aid a beleaguered rotation and a #3 hitter to slot behind <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a>. While Fulmer’s 2018 numbers suggest that he hasn’t
enjoyed the same success as his 2016 Rookie of the Year effort or last year, he
still ranks 36th in Fangraphs WAR among MLB starting pitchers (<a href="https://theathletic.com/415142/2018/07/01/michael-fulmer-is-too-valuable-for-tigers-to-trade/" target="_blank">thanks, Kurt Mensching</a>),
and he’s been posting career-high velocities on both his four seamer and sinker. The 25-year-old would instantly become the
ace of the Angels’ rotation and bolster a pitching corps that has been ravaged
by injuries—six Angel pitchers have already underwent arm surgeries so far this
year. <span style="color: #00b050;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #00b050;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Castellanos would give Angels Manager
Mike Scioscia a lethal bat in the 3-hole.
His .305/.356/.519 slash line and 3.0 oWAR ensure that he’d be a massive
upgrade over incumbent RF <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/calhoko01.shtml" target="_blank">Kole Calhoun</a>, whose .497 OPS ranks last in the A.L. at the position.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #00b050;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Even if the Angels are unable to
catch the Astros or Mariners this season, this trade would satisfy GM Billy
Eppler’s main objective, which is to put the Halos in the best possible
position to win before Trout’s contract expires after 2020. Castellanos won’t become a free agent until
after next season, while Fulmer will not be eligible to leave until after 2022.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #00b050;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>What the Tigers are getting:</u></b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Detroit GM Al
Avila is ssensible enough to realize that he’d never be able to pry OF <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=adell-000jo-" target="_blank">Jo Adell,</a> the crown jewel
of the Angels system, away from southern California.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, Thaiss, Marsh, and Canning are all
highly-coveted prospects and their arrival in Detroit would
greatly accelerate the Tigers’ rebuild.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #00b050;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Thaiss, 23, is a hitting machine
who’s delivered at every minor league level and is now adding power to his
game, as evidenced by his .223 isolated power (ISO) at AA and AAA this season. With <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martivi01.shtml" target="_blank">Victor Martinez</a> likely retiring in October and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a> probably
relegated to DH next year, Thaiss would enjoy a clear path to Comerica Park.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #00b050;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Marsh is the dynamo of the
deal. Just 20, he’s still more
projection over performance but that gap has closed considerably in 2018. A left-handed hitter, the 6-04 Marsh still
has holes in his swing, but scouts are almost unanimous in the belief that
Marsh could be a perennial .280 hitter who belts at least 20 home runs a
season. On defense, Marsh has a center
fielder’s range but enough arm to play right field.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Canning, a second rounder in the
2017 draft, fell because of injury concerns that proved to be unfounded.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’s shot up three levels this season as a
velocity spike has enabled him to throw his fastball into the mid-90’s and his
three other offerings all rate as at least major-league average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Canning’s build, stuff, and superb command
have evoked some comparisons to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a>; however, other evaluators view him as a solid #3
starter. Nonetheless, he’d be a great
add to Detroit’s already bountiful collection of pitching prospects. <span style="color: #00b050;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br /></div>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite its relatively comfortable five-game divisional lead
in the A.L. Central (the largest margin in baseball) heading into Friday’s action,
the Cleveland Indians are a flawed club, plagued by holes in the lineup and
bullpen that will spark an early exit from the Oktoberfest if they’re not
addressed by the July 31<sup>st</sup> trade deadline.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Much like last season, Manager Terry Francona’s squad has
reaped the benefits of playing in MLB’s least competitive division, where the
Twins have been maddeningly inconsistent, and the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox
are in various stages of lengthy rebuilds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, the Indians’ grace period will end in the postseason when they’ll
have to face juggernauts like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first order of business for Indians’ President Chris
Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff should be to plug the club’s leaky bullpen,
which is second-to-last in the A.L. with a 5.42 ERA and has been especially taxed
since stud reliever <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millean01.shtml" target="_blank">Andrew Miller</a> went on the DL with a knee injury.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In drawing up possible solutions to
Cleveland’s bullpen woes, it’s vital to acknowledge the organization’s payroll
limitations in addition to the fact that the club will also need to save some
powder to bolster its lineup.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first move the Cleveland brain trust should consider is one
that doesn’t cost anything in terms of talent or money—shifting starter <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clevimi01.shtml" target="_blank">Mike Clevinger</a>
to the bullpen, where he’d eventually team up with Miller to give Francona two
shutdown setup guys capable of multi-inning stints.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clevinger could also become the successor to
closer <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allenco01.shtml" target="_blank">Cody Allen</a> or Miller, both of whom are set to depart as free agents
after this season.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Clevinger’s already-filthy stuff should transition well to
the pen, where the velocity on his fourseamer will likely tick up from
its current average of <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=605182&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=06/13/2018&s_type=2" target="_blank">93.9 MPH</a> and he’ll be able to rely more on his effective
curveball. Also, as Clevinger’s reverse-platoon splits indicate, Francona would
be able to count on him against both lefties and righties in late-inning,
high-leverage situations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p><br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cleveland’s replacement for Clevinger in the rotation should
also come from within.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>23-year-old <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biebesh01.shtml" target="_blank">Shane Bieber</a> has cruised through the minors in just two years, displaying pinpoint
control and an effective four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that scrapes
the mid-90’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just how good has Bieber
been?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 274 minor league innings, he’s
posted a ridiculous 2.20 ERA and an equally-outrageous 255/18 K/BB ratio.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As much as we like Clevinger as a multi-inning power
reliever, adding him to the bullpen would not be enough to end the Tribe’s late
inning misery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cleveland should target
another reliever, and, if possible, do so without substantially increasing
payroll.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, while the Indians should fix
their gaze in the direction of San Diego, they shouldn’t do so with the
intention of landing <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/handbr01.shtml" target="_blank">Brad Hand</a>, everyone’s favorite trade target.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, Cleveland should set its sights on righthander <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yateski01.shtml" target="_blank">Kirby Yates</a>, who won’t demand nearly the prospect haul that Hand would
and whose $1.1 million salary would easily fit into the Tribe’s budget. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Though he doesn’t carry the same cache as Hand, Yates could still
emerge as a difference maker for Cleveland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He’s been murder on right-handed hitters, who’ve posted a miniscule .263
OPS against the native Hawaiian without even delivering an extra-base hit in 59
plate appearances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition, his FIP
of 2.43 is a harbinger of more good things to come.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unfortunately, Cleveland’s deficiencies are not limited to its
bullpen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although the Indians rank third
in the A.L. in home runs and fourth in slugging and runs scored, the Tribe’s
offense is unbalanced with a disproportionate amount of production generated by
the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml" target="_blank">Francisco Lindor</a>-<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brantmi02.shtml" target="_blank">Michael Brantley</a>-<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirjo01.shtml" target="_blank">Jose Ramirez</a> troika.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That threesome has put up a .297/.363/.550 slash
line while the Indians’ other hitters have slashed a paltry .233/.311/.383.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Cleveland is to have any chance against lethal
playoff pitching, it will have to lengthen the sweet spot of its lineup.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Orioles will attract the attention of every team looking
to add some punch at the deadline.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not
only do the O’s boast <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a>, arguably the best hitter ever available at
the mid-season trade bazaar, but also <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml" target="_blank">Adam Jones</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No longer a viable option in center field,
Jones can still adequately man a corner and is on pace for his seventh <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">b</i>oWAR of at least 3.0 in the last nine
seasons. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cleveland should pursue both in
a trade. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Plugging Machado into the Indians lineup at the hot corner would
enable Francona to shift Ramirez to second base, where he rates as excellent,
and move <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kipnija01.shtml" target="_blank">Jason Kipnis</a> and his .611 OPS to the bench.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would not only give Cleveland the best all-round
infield in baseball, but also an unparalleled top of its lineup.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While Jones wouldn’t have the same impact as Machado, he’d
be a substantial upgrade over the cast of characters Francona has penciled into
the lineup in the corner outfield.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Jones’ OPS+ of 114 easily exceeds the 56 posted by <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guyerbr01.shtml" target="_blank">Brandon Guyer</a>, the 55
put up by <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisra01.shtml" target="_blank">Rajai Davis</a>, and the 43 <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreme01.shtml" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera</a> delivered before he was
released.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Even though they’d be just half-season rentals, acquiring
Machado and Jones would cost the Indians a hefty prospect package that would probably
include at least one of catcher <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mejiafr01.shtml" target="_blank">Francisco Mejia</a>, righthander <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mckenz000tri" target="_blank">Triston McKenzie</a>,
and outfielder <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=capel-000con" target="_blank">Conner Capel</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the Indians’
most recent draft class, assessed by many insiders to be among the best in MLB,
and the organization’s strong presence in Latin America would help offset the
loss of some of the organization’s best minor league talent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The acquisition of Machado and Jones would come at a
substantial monetary cost, with approximately $20 million being added to the
books on a pro rata basis (assuming the trade was made tomorrow).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This hefty amount would be in stark contrast
to the $4 million the Indians took on when they added <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bruceja01.shtml" target="_blank">Jay Bruce</a> last year and $4
million the team assumed when it traded for Miller and Guyer in 2016.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before ruling out the Tribe’s acquisition of Machado and
Jones due to its prohibitive cost, it’s important to realize that this small
market club’s window won’t be open forever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In fact, rotation stalwarts <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml" target="_blank">Trevor Bauer</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carraca01.shtml" target="_blank">Carlos Carrasco</a> will be
eligible to leave as free agents after the 2020 season, while ace <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml" target="_blank">Corey Kluber</a>
and Lindor’s contracts expire after 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And don’t forget about Miller and Allen’s likely departure after this
year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s been 70 years since a World Series flag was last hoisted on the banks of Lake Erie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
if the Indians don’t make the necessary changes in the weeks leading up to the
trade deadline, that unfortunate streak will continue indefinitely.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ensconced in last place in the AL Central with a 10-16
record, it's safe to say the Indians' 2015 season has not gone according to
plan. The Tribe was the chic pick by
many pundits to end the Tigers' run of four consecutive division titles and
post its first first-place finish since 2007.
Heck, even <a href="http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/03/24/mlb-preview-sports-illustrated-cover" target="_blank">Sports Illustrated</a>
picked Cleveland to advance to the World Series. But a leaky bullpen, an anemic offense, and
porous defense have all played major roles in the Indians' poor start.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Brewers, on the other hand, entered this season with far
more modest expectations, with almost all national writers picking Milwaukee to
finish in the middle of the pack or lower in the suddenly-competitive NL
Central. However, the Brew Crew's NL-worst
9-19 start has been far worse than anyone could have imagined, leading to the
May 4th ouster of Manager Ron Roenicke as well as sparking talk that the team
will start to auction veterans as part of a full-scale rebuild.</div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://theinfieldchatter.blogspot.com/2015/04/brewers-should-start-selling-build-for.html" target="_blank">As we discussed last week</a>, what makes Milwaukee's
situation even more precarious is the fact that three of the teams ahead of it
in the standings -- St. Louis, Chicago, and Pittsburgh -- have stockpiled
tremendous young talent and are currently much better positioned for the future. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Given the Indians' need to strengthen multiple weaknesses
before this season spirals out of control and the good sense it would make for
the Brewers to gear up for 2017 and beyond, we've thought up a trade that would
satisfy both team's objectives.</div>
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<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>The Trade:</u></b> The Brewers trade CF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml" target="_blank">Carlos Gomez</a> to the
Indians for the Tribe's top OF prospect, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=zimmer000bra" target="_blank">Bradley Zimmer</a>, and their best minor
league pitcher, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sheffi000jus" target="_blank">Justus Sheffield</a>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>What the Indians
are getting:</u></b> A legitimate 5-tool
player. Period. The
29-year-old Gomez is a 2-time All Star and former Gold Glove winner
whose WAR of 13.7 in 2013-14 lags only <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a> among
center fielders. Equally as important,
Gomez is under contract through next year, when he will earn a measly $9
million. Gomez' broad offensive skill
set would be an excellent fit in Cleveland's predominantly left-handed lineup
and his sterling glovework would be a
welcome addition for the defensively-challenged Tribe, whose Zone Rating, as
measured by <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2015-standard-fielding.shtml" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a> ranks as the 2nd-worst in the American
League.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bournmi01.shtml" target="_blank">Michael Bourn</a>, Cleveland's incumbent center fielder, is on
the books thru next year, when he will earn $14 million and has a $12 million
vesting option for 2017. However, it's
evident that his best days are behind him and he should be replaced. From 2012-14, the Houston native's OPS declined
from .739 to .674 and is at a measly .499 on the young season. His steals during the 3-year period also fell
from 42 to just ten (while his success rate declined from 76% to 62%). And if that's not enough, Bourn's defense has
also taken a dramatic turn for the worse -- his range factor has dropped from 2.52
in 2012 to 1.86 this season, nearly a full run lower than the league average of
2.73.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>What the Brewers
are getting:</u></b> SS <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lindor000fra" target="_blank">Francisco Lindor</a>
is easily Cleveland's best prospect, and it's doubtful GM Chris Antonetti would
let the 21-year-old stud be a part of any trade. However, Zimmer and Sheffield would make
excellent consolation prizes. Zimmer,
22, swings a high-octane lefty bat and as his .474 slugging percentage in the
pitcher-friendly Carolina League and 14 steals suggest, he would offer
Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin a dynamic talent to pair with RF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=coulte000cli" target="_blank">Clint Coulter</a> in the
Brewers' outfield of the future.</div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Despite
his smallish 5-10, 190-pound stature, Sheffield has big stuff,
including a fastball that routinely hits 97 mph and devastating slider. 18-year-old pitching prospects are always
lottery tickets, but Sheffield's sterling 3.7 K/BB ratio demonstrates that he
already has an excellent idea of how to pitch and his learning curve shouldn't
be as steep as most other pitching prospects in Low A. The arrival of Sheffield would give Milwaukee
another precocious arm to team with fellow left-handed fireballer <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=medeir000kod" target="_blank">Kodi Medeiros</a>, their
top pick in last year's draft.</span></span></div>
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<br />
While few pundits picked the Brewers to make the playoffs
this year, Milwaukee's 4-15 record following Sunday's game has the Brew Crew
poised for its worst record since going 56-106 in 2002. Worse yet, the organization's fall from grace
has come at a time when three of the four teams ahead of it in the suddenly
ultra-competitive NL Central could remain juggernauts for years to come.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
The 1st-place Cardinals have long been baseball's premier
franchise. In the 15 seasons since the
turn of the century, St. Louis has played in the postseason an astounding 11
times, including winning four National League titles and hoisting the World
Series trophy twice. And through astute
drafting, strong trades, and prudent forays into the free agent market, the
Cards don't look like they'll go away anytime soon.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After 20 years of futility, the Pirates, NL Wild Card contestants
the last two seasons, have built a winner with staying power. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colege01.shtml" target="_blank">Gerrit Cole</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a> are two of
the division's best 28-and-under talents, while minor leaguers like <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=glasno000tyl" target="_blank">Tyler Glasnow</a>,
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meadow000aus" target="_blank">Austin Meadows</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mcguir001ree" target="_blank">Reese McGuire</a> will help ensure this winning tradition
continues.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When Theo Epstein took over as the Cubs' president in 2011,
he promised to turn baseball's perpetual doormats into a "player
development machine." Well, he wasn't lying. In less than four years, Epstein & Co.
have added the likes of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bryankr01.shtml" target="_blank">Kris Bryant</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/russead02.shtml" target="_blank">Addison Russell</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solerjo01.shtml" target="_blank">Jorge Soler</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=almora001alb" target="_blank">Albert Almora</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=schwar001kyl" target="_blank">Kyle Schwarber</a> and others to form the game's most impressive stable of
young, high-end talent.</div>
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<br />
Simply put, the Brewers picked the wrong time to enter
baseball's abyss. However, there is a
silver lining. Unlike most cellar-dwelling
teams, Milwaukee actually has a decent number of star-caliber,
cost-controllable players who would command a sizeable return if traded. This potential bounty would combine with the
high-end prospects the Brewers have already accumulated to put the club on a
sharp upward trajectory.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Brewers' GM Doug Melvin's sexiest trade piece is CF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml" target="_blank">CarlosGomez</a>. The 29-year-old Gomez is a 2-time All Star and
former Gold Glove winner whose WAR of 13.7 in 2013-14 lags only <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a> and McCutchen among center fielders.
Equally as important, Gomez is under contract through next year, when he
will earn a measly $9 million. Gomez'
broad skill set and affordability would easily net the Brewers at least one
A-rated prospect and two complementary pieces in a trade. Top suitors at this early date could be the Indians
and Mariners, whose incumbent center fielders <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bournmi01.shtml" target="_blank">Michael Bourn</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksau01.shtml" target="_blank">Austin Jackson</a> have been trending down for several years. The Blue Jays could also enter the mix,
especially if GM Alex Anthopoulos thinks rookie CF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pompeda01.shtml" target="_blank">Dalton Pompey</a> needs more
seasoning in the minors.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
C <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lucrojo01.shtml" target="_blank">Jonathan Lucroy</a>, just 28, is another trade chip who would
bring back a bonanza in a trade. Not only
is Lucroy one of MLB's best-hitting backstops, but he's also outstanding at
pitch framing, a skill that's received increased scrutiny as more sophisticated
methods of statistical analysis within the sport have emerged. And like Gomez, Lucroy's contract--including
an affordable $5.25 million team option for 2017, he's due to earn just $9.25
million in 2016-17--ensures he can fit into any team's budget. The Astros, Marlins, Nationals, Red Sox, and White
Sox are all teams with aspirations of October baseball who could be seeking an
upgrade behind the plate. The return for
Lucroy should approximate the prospect treasure that a trade of Gomez would
fetch.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
SS <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml" target="_blank">Jean Segura</a>, 25, has appeared to bounce back nicely from a
down 2014, a year wracked by personal tragedy.
In 2013, Segura posted a robust .423 slugging percentage and 44 steals
to produce a solid WAR of 3.5. Not
arbitration eligible until after this season, Segura's upside and low price tag
would likely translate into a package of two solid prospects in a trade. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Those worried about who would replace the departed Segura
need to look no further than Triple A Colorado Springs, where 21-year-old
defensive wizard <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sardilu01.shtml" target="_blank">Luis Sardinas</a> is holding his own with the bat. However, Segura's ultimate replacement will
be 20-year-old wunderkind <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=arcia-000orl" target="_blank">Orlando Arcia</a>, who's currently slashing to the tune of
.423/.492/.596 at Double AA Biloxi.
Arcia's glove is already big-league ready and once he fills out his 6-00,
170-pound frame he could project as a poor man's <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcino01.shtml" target="_blank">Nomar Garciaparra</a>, but with
more steals and better defense. He's
that good.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Arcia forms one-third of a troika of talented Brewers
prospects. RF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=coulte000cli" target="_blank">Clint Coulter</a> is the
second guy fans in Milwaukee should be excited about. Coulter, 21, is a converted catcher, who in
his first full season in the outfield has evidently enjoyed being liberated
from the physical rigors of catching.
The Washington native has started off the year on fire, slashing .338/.434/.708
with 6 home runs in just 17 games at High A Brevard County. Rock solid at 6-03 and 220 pounds, Coulter's
power and patience at the plate mesh nicely with his cannon arm in the outfield
and evoke memories of long-time Angels great <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salmoti01.shtml" target="_blank">Tim Salmon</a>.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Southpaw <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=medeir000kod" target="_blank">Kodi Medeiros</a> is still just 18, which means that
the word "caution" is the first word that should be used when
describing his potential. However, his
97 mph fastball and dynamite breaking stuff could enable him to move quickly
through the Brewers' chain. He's also
off to a hot start, posting nearly a K/IP of nearly 12 and WHIP of .78 at Low A
Wisconson.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Any discussion about Milwaukee's future fortunes would be
incomplete if it didn't mention upcoming drafts. The Brewers under new Scouting Director Ray
Montgomery pick 15th this year in a draft that may be short on historical,
franchise-changing talent at the top but is still considered deep by most
insiders. And next year, assuming its
horrid start is not an aberration, the club will have a top-3 pick in a draft looks
like it will be loaded with premium talent.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Throwing in the towel on this season, and most likely 2016
and 2017 as well, certainly won't be easy for Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, one
of baseball's best front men. Despite
drawing from MLB's smallest metropolitan areas, Milwaukee's payroll has
consistently been in the middle of the pack as Attanasio has made winning a
priority since purchasing the team in 2005.
However, Attanasio should realize that taking a step back to regroup now
will put his club in a better position going forward to achieve sustained
success in dog-eat-dog world of the NL Central.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Mets' <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/94301/report-mets-fire-ticket-sales-vp?ex_cid=espnapi_public">recent
firing of the vice president of ticket sales</a> is just the latest in a long
line of mistakes the organization has made, cementing its status as New York's
second team. Apparently, the dismissed
executive is to blame for the Mets' woeful attendance -- 27,036 per game this
season, a 31 percent drop from the club's Citifield high water mark of 38,941
in 2009 -- despite a poor 65-74 record.</div>
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<br /></div>
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This dismissal is just the latest in what has been a long
line of mishaps by the Amazing Mess, but from a pure baseball standpoint it
pales in comparison to the team's decision to keep first round pick <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=confor001mic">Michael
Conforto</a> at short season Brooklyn despite the former Oregon State and Team
USA star being far too advanced for the league.
Conforto, a left-handed hitting left fielder, slashed .331/.403/.448 in
179 plate appearances and proved early on that he was ready for a stiffer
challenge than the one offered by the mediocre pitching in the New York-Penn
League.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Mets' justification for keeping Conforto confined to
Brooklyn was they believed the 21-year-old's presence would help the Cyclones
reach the playoffs (which it didn't). We
should also mention that the Cyclones are Mets owner Fred Wilpon's baby. He hails from Brooklyn and owns the franchise,
a set up that is uncustomary as most minor league franchises are owned and
operated by independent parties. So,
it's evident that the Mets owner has once again placed his personal agenda
above that of the big league club. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The Mets' refusal to move Conforto up the chain this summer
will clearly hurt both the club and the young slugger's development. In <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=plawec000kev">Kevin
Plawecki</a> (Triple A), <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=nimmo-000bra">Brandon
Nimmo</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/herredi01.shtml">Dilson
Herrera</a> (Double A), and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cecchi001gav">Gavin
Cecchini</a> (High A), New York has a slew of exciting position prospects that
will all be ready to join the parent club's young pitchers at the big league
level by early 2016, at the latest.
Promoting Conforto to High A a month ago would have made it easier for him
to catch up with his organizational peers and accelerated the Mets' much-needed
rebuilding effort.</div>
<br /></div>
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<br />
Poised to win the American League Central for the fourth
consecutive year, the Detroit Tigers' fortunes this October will rest squarely
on the right arm of one <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml">Justin Brooks Verlander</a>. Admittedly, that's a bold statement, especially
when you consider that Detroit's <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/">$164 million roster</a> includes the likes of
2012-13 MVP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml">Miguel Cabrera</a>, 2013 Cy Young <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml">Max Scherzer</a>, 2013 A.L. ERA leader
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml">Annibal Sanchez</a>, and 5-time All Star <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martivi01.shtml">Victor Martinez</a>. But Verlander is the Tigers' #1 starter. Their Big Dawg. Their <i>hombre</i>.
Their bouncer. Their ace. And to win in October you need an ace.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Unfortunately for the Tigers, Verlander has done everything
this season but pitch like an ace. In fact,
his 4.84 ERA this season is more than a full run higher than any of the Tigers'
other starters, and his WHIP of 1.45 also ranks as the worst among his rotation
mates. Definitely not results the Tigers' front
office envisioned when it gave Verlander a 7-year/$180 million extension last
year in the hope that he would be the horse that the organization could ride to
its first world championship since 1984.</div>
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<br /></div>
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It's imperative that Verlander right the ship before the
start of the playoffs for three reasons.
First, the rest of the Tigers' rotation does not eat enough innings to
compensate for the team's weak, overworked bullpen, which will leave Detroit
vulnerable in the late innings against playoff-caliber offenses like the A's,
Angels and Orioles. </div>
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<br /></div>
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In Scherzer, Sanchez, and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01.shtml">Rick Porcello</a> (we'll
assume that #5 starter <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smylydr01.shtml">Drew Smyly</a> will head to the bullpen in the playoffs), manager
Brad Ausmus has three capable starters, but they've averaged only 6.1 innings
per start since the beginning of last season.
This means that Ausmus will be relying on the bullpen to get eight
highly-leveraged outs in what will likely be razor-tight pitching duels where
one misplaced fastball or hanging curve could have disastrous results.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Let's look at Detroit's bullpen for a second. Closer <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nathajo01.shtml">Joe Nathan</a> has enjoyed s stellar
career with 360 saves and a 2.89 ERA, but this year he's already blown five
saves in just 25 attempts and his ERA is a bloated 5.89. </div>
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Setup man <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chambjo03.shtml">Joba Chamberlain</a> has had an excellent season, but
he's just two years removed from Tommy John surgery and on pace to equal his
personal best of 73 appearances in a season.
</div>
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<br /></div>
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Right hander <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/albural01.shtml">Al Albuquerque</a> has also posted good numbers
this season, however, his heavy workload may already be affecting his dynamite
stuff. His FIP of 4.19 suggests that his
current ERA of 3.31 will rise and his K/9 of 10.2 is his worst mark by almost
two full strikeouts. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally, left-handed specialists <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/krolia01.shtml">Ian Krol</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cokeph01.shtml">Phil Coke's</a>
aggregate ERA and WHIP of 4.70 and 1.60, respectively, have caused Ausmus to
reach for the Rolaids on more than one occasion this season.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Newly-acquired Joakim Soria is a stud, but even after his
arrival from Texas Detroit's bullpen
will still be a little short. This is
where Verlander comes in. Vintage
Verlander--assume the 2012 model when he had a 2.64 ERA to go along with a 1.06
WHIP and averaged 7.1 innings per start--would give his manager the luxury of saving his beleaguered bullpen
for other games when an 8-out effort will be necessary to achieve a win.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The second reason why Detroit needs Verlander to return to
form is that he and his fellow starters must mask an inconsistent offense. Although Detroit's 468 runs scored ranks
third in the A.L., and its OPS of .773 paces the junior circuit, the Tigers'
offense has gone in the tank for extended stretches this season and has been
particularly susceptible to power pitching.
For example, during a 9-17 stretch from May 19th-June 18th, Detroit
faced hard throwers like <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml">Trevor Bauer</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darviyu01.shtml">Yu Darvish</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml">Sonny Gray</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kazmisc01.shtml">Scott Kazmir</a>,
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hutchdr01.shtml">Drew Hutchison</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml">Chris Sale</a> and hit only .258, or 20 points below their full-season
average.</div>
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It will only get tougher in October, when the Tigers will
probably have to face the likes of Gray (remember his eight shutout innings in
Game 2 of the AL Division Series last year?), Kazmir, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml">Jeff Samardzija</a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml">Felix Hernandez</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richaga01.shtml">Garrett Richards</a> multiple times in a series. Detroit will need their starters to bring
their "A" games for such matchups, meaning Verlander pitching like he
has for most of this year simply won't cut it.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Tigers' poor defense is the final reason why Verlander
will need to regain his old magic once the leaves start to change color. Although second baseman <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinslia01.shtml">Ian Kinsler</a> and
rookie shortstop <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suareeu01.shtml">Eugenio Suarez</a> make a solid double play combination, Cabrera and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml">Nick Castellanos</a> offer below average range at the
corners. And <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml">Torii Hunter</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml">JD Martinez</a>,
who has earned a starting job because of his hot bat, are among the A.L.'s
worst outfielder's according to UZR rankings.</div>
<br />
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Simply put, Detroit's starters will need as many strikeouts
as possible to negate the team's porous defense. While Scherzer, with 10.1 strikeouts per nine
innings, has maintained his pace from last season, Porcello, Sanchez, and
Verlander's K/9 are down significantly.
Verlander's drop--from 8.9 in 2012 to a pedestrian 6.7 this year--is
particularly alarming and will have to be improved.</div>
</div>
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With the emergence of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suareeu01.shtml">Eugenio Suarez</a>, it's safe to say that
the Tigers will not be in the market for a starting shortstop as the trade
deadline nears. Suarez has put up a
strong .274/.355/.442 slash line in 111 plate appearances while paying stellar
defense. The 22-year-old Venezuelan is
yet another example of the Tigers' tremendous Latin scouting operations.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Speaking of the Tigers' Latin pipeline, keep an eye on
18-year-old shortstop <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=adames000wil">Willy Adames</a> at Low A West Michigan. In just his first season stateside, the 6-01,
180 pound Dominican, who is three-and-a-half years younger than the average
Midwest Leaguer, has a healthy .810 OPS with 12 (that's right, <i>TWELVE)</i> triples. Still inconsistent at times on defense,
Adames has more than enough of arm and range to stay at the position.</div>
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The Yankees' recent signing of ninth rounder Vince Conde,
a shortstop from Vanderbilt, paves the way for rising junior Dansby Swanson to
shift back to his original position, where his exceptional range should wow
scouts. However, Swanson is more than
just a one-trick pony -- since arriving in Nashville he's demonstrated remarkable
improvement at the plate and currently profiles as an ideal #2 hitter with
enough pop to belt 12-15 home runs annually.
Expect Swanson to be a top 15 pick in next June's draft.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And last but not least, Friday was the best day the Mets have had in a long time. Although not a shortstop, the signing of first round pick Michael Conforto will finally give the organization an element it sorely lacks: a bona fide left-handed power hitter with excellent pitch recognition skills. Conforto, a left fielder from PAC-12 power Oregon State, profiles as "rich man's" <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jenkige01.shtml">Geoff Jenkins</a> -- a guy with legit 30-home run power who might also walk 100 times. Though he'll make his professional debut for the Brooklyn Cyclones in Short Season A-Ball, he's expected to move fast and could be in the majors by Opening Day 2016.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
Earlier this week we gave you a sneak peak at the top 10
college players for an early look at next year's draft. Today, we'll give you the inside scoop on
these 10 best high school prospects:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1) <b><u>Daz Cameron</u></b>,
OF, Florida State commitment -- Mike's son has been on the scouting radar for
two years and is an explosive five-tool talent.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2) <b><u>Brendan Rodgers</u></b>,
SS, Florida State commitment -- A true shortstop who will be able to stay at
the position, he has a better hit tool and power than Nick Gordon, the fifth
overall selection this past June.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3) <b><u>Justin Hooper</u></b>,
LHP, UCLA commitment -- Physical 6-06 southpaw with three above average
pitches, including an electric fastball he already throws in the mid-90's.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4) <b><u>Beau Burrows</u></b>,
RHP, Texas A&M commitment -- Complements a low-to-mid-90's fastball that he
commands well with two excellent breaking pitches.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5) <b><u>Chris Betts</u></b>, C, Tennessee
commitment -- Tremendous raw power from the left side and has improved his
catching enough to give him a decent shot to remain behind the plate as he
advances.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
6) <b><u>Mike Nikorak</u></b>,
RHP, Alabama commitment -- The Pennsylvania native wasn't as high profile as
some of the other 2015 draft eligibles, but that all changed early in the
showcase season when he hit 97 mph with his heater.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
7) <b><u>Greg Pickett</u></b>,
OF, Mississippi State commitment -- Another guy who has really helped his stock
this summer. Put on a laser light show
at a Perfect Game tournament in Georgia last week and now has many scouts
believing he may have the best power/hit tool package in the entire 2015 draft
class.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
8) <b><u>Kyle Molnar</u></b>,
RHP, UCLA commitment -- Athletic righty has an exceptional track record against
high profile competition. Good 91-93 mph
fastball and his changeup is his best secondary offering.</div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
9) <b><u>Ryan Johnson</u></b>,
OF, TCU commitment -- Left-handed slugger could always mash, but has only
recently begun to demonstrate more speed and a strong, accurate arm in the
outfield.</div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">10)
<b><u>John Aiello</u></b>, 3B, Wake Forest
commitment -- Switch hitter with an advanced approach from both sides of the
plate.</span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
With the various college summer leagues and high school
showcases in full swing, it's a good time to give a lightning quick preview of
the players already on scouts' radar for next year's draft, which is
"only" 330 days away. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At this early juncture, it appears as if college pitchers
and high school position players will dominate the first round. However, keep in mind how early it is and
that we'll probably see a lot of volatility over the next 11 months.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Today we'll feature the top ten college players -- eight of
whom are pitchers -- and later in the week you'll be able to check out the top
ten guys from the high school ranks. And
tune in to Infield Chatter throughout the summer to receive periodic updates as
the summer leagues and showcases continue.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Here are the top ten rising college juniors at the start of
the summer:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1) <b><u>Mike Matuella</u></b>,
RHP, Duke University -- Physical specimen at 6-06, 225 pounds with ace-type
stuff, including a 95-97 mph fastball that doesn't lose velocity or movement in
the last innings. Perhaps the best
college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2) <b><u>James Kaprielian</u></b>,
RHP, UCLA -- Big kid with quality four-pitch mix, including a heater than hits
94 mph and two above-average breaking pitches.
Thinking man pitcher who's able to execute his game plan every time out.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3) <b><u>Kyle Funkhouser</u></b>,
RHP, Louisville -- A near carbon copy of Tigers' ace Max Scherzer at the same
stage of development. Funky delivery,
but he can dial his fastball up to 96 mph, and his vicious mid-80's slider makes
him nearly unhittable against righties. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4) <b><u>Carson Fulmer</u></b>,
RHP, Vanderbilt -- The frontman for Vandy's heralded troika going into 2015, his
94-96 mph fastball darts all over the strike zone and is virtually impossible
to square up. He complements his heater
with an equally devastating slider that sits 84-87 mph. His changeup is his weakest offering.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5) <b><u>Nate Kirby</u></b>,
LHP, Virginia -- Has a picture perfect motion, which results in exceptional
command of three above-average pitches, a 91-93 mph fastball, tight curveball,
and circle change. The young southpaw
also has an exceptional pick-off move and fields his position well.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
6) <b><u>Alex Bregman</u></b>,
2B/SS, LSU -- A fine shortstop but could evolve into a Craig Biggio clone on
the other side of the keystone. At the
plate, he's got a short, compact swing with enough juice to one day produce a
.300 average and 15 home runs. Also
boasts exceptional plate discipline.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
7) <b><u>Jake Lemoine</u></b>,
RHP, Houston -- At 6-05, 220 lbs, hehas a major league body but still needs to
work on his stuff. He can dial his
fastball up to 94 mph, but the offering has a lot more movement when it's
90-92. He can throw his slider in the
mid-80's, but the pitch tends to flatten out.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
8) <b><u>Walker Buehler</u></b>,
RHP, Vanderbilt -- Not a huge guy at 6-01, 170 lbs, but his stuff is electric. His 92-94 mph fastball has exceptional
tailing action, and his 12-to-6 curveball could be the best in college baseball
next year.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
9) <b><u>Dansby Swanson</u></b>,
SS-2B, Vanderbilt -- Better known for his fantastic defense when he showed up
in Nashville, he's improved his offensive game dramatically and now projects as
a bona fide two-hole hitter in the major leagues. Exceptional range and arm at shortstop.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">10)
<b><u>Brett Lilek</u></b>, LHP, Arizona
State -- This projectable lefty has a loose arm and the makings of four quality
pitches, including a fastball he can run up to 94 mph. He displayed a much smoother delivery this
past season.</span></span></div>
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Friday night's trade in which the Cubs shipped RHPs <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml">Jeff Samardzija</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hammeja01.shtml">Jason Hammel</a> off to Oakland in exchange for A's prospects SS
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=russel001add">Addison Russell</a> and OF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mckinn002bil">Billy McKinney</a> and RHP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/straida01.shtml">Dan Straily</a> is the first blockbuster of this season
and has four fascinating subplots with reverberations that will be felt
throughout baseball. </div>
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<b>1) Billy Beane realized
the A's lacked the necessary starting pitching to advance deep into October.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Leave it to Beane, long recognized as the game's best GM, to
realize that the A's, despite an MLB-best 53-33 record, had major question
marks up and down their entire rotation.
</div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkeja02.shtml">Jarrod Parker</a> was viewed as a rotation mainstay after going
25-16 in 2012-13 but is out for the entire season after undergoing Tommy John
surgery, while Drew Pomeranz was a major revelation until he broke his hand. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Ace <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml">Sonny Gray</a> is an emerging superstar but is on pace to
eclipse 200 IP for the first time in his young career and could be running on
fumes come October. </div>
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<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kazmisc01.shtml">Scott Kazmir</a> has proven that last year's comeback with
Cleveland was no fluke; however, his injury history remains a concern. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then there's <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chaveje01.shtml">Jesse Chavez</a>, who's filled in admirably, but
prior to this year he had started only twice in 191 big league appearances. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In Samardzija, Beane has acquired a legitimate #2 who can
eat innings and should enjoy the move from the cozy confines of Wrigley Field
to pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum. As it
is, Samardzija's enjoying a career year -- his 2.83 ERA currently ranks 10th in
the National League, while his 8.58 K/9 is eighth-best in the Senior
Circuit. The 29-year-old is not a free
agent until after next season.</div>
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Though not as talented as Samardzija, Hammel is also in the
midst of his best season and should fill in ably as Oakland's #4 behind Gray,
Samardzija, and Kazmir. Hammel's 2.92
ERA and 8.50 K/9 are just a tick behind Samardzija's and, if nothing else, he's
a guy who should give Oakland quality innings in bulk. The 31-year-old veteran is a free agent after
this season and will be exempt from the qualifying offer rule because he was
traded mid-season.</div>
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In
one fell swoop, Oakland acquired two horses that have transformed its starting
rotation from a patchwork job to one of the best in the league. It's still early and there are still trades
to be made, but if the postseason started tomorrow, Oakland would be the
consensus pick to represent the American League in the World Series.</div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<b>2) <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml">David Price</a> just
became a lot pricier.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Excuse us, we just couldn't avoid the pun. But it's true. With all due respect, Price is a better
pitcher than either Samardzija or Hammel will ever be, and, like Samardzija, his new team will enjoy his
services for TWO pennant races because he's not a free agent until after the
2015 season.</div>
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With the Cubs receiving one elite prospect (Russell) and one
very good one (McKinney) in the deal, the bar is set even higher for what the
Rays would be getting back in any Price trade.
<a href="http://theinfieldchatter.blogspot.com/2014/07/trade-fair-for-st-louis-price-is-right.html">In last week's Trade Fair </a>column, we discussed how St. Louis GM John
Mozeliak would probably not have to surrender organizational gem, OF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/taveros01.shtml">OscarTaveras</a>, in any deal for Price. Well,
throw that idea out the window. Given
what the A's paid for Samardzija and Hammel, if the Cardinals want the superior
Price, Taveras is a goner.</div>
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The same holds true for any other team that is hoping to
land Price. Take the Dodgers, for
example, who have been rumored to be in the market for the big left-hander's
services. To land Price, GM Ned Colletti
will have to give up either OF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peders001joc">Joc Pederson</a> or SS <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=seager001cor">Corey Seager</a>, as both guys
are in the same prospect class as Taveras.</div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>3) Does Cubs GM Theo
Epstein have a follow-up deal up his sleeve?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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This trade will give Chicago an abundance of highly-rated positional
prospects. Reed, 2B <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alcant003ari">Arismendy Alcantara</a>,
SS <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=baez--000jav">Javier Baez</a>, 3B <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bryant001kri">Kris Bryant</a> , OF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=soler-000jor">Jorge Soler</a>, OF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=almora001alb">Albert Almora</a>, and C/OF
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=schwar001kyl">Kyle Schwarber</a> are all consensus Top-100 prospects, while McKinney and a few
others are loudly knocking on the door.
However, the Cubs' pitching cupboard is shockingly thin.</div>
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Although, prospect-for-prospect deals are extremely rare in
baseball, we wouldn't put it past Epstein to swing such a deal to get back a
young, talented hurler. It's tough to
gauge which youngster would be on his way out, but our money is on Baez being
shown the door. With Russell, the
superior defender, now entrenched at SS, and Alcantara and Bryant ensconced at
their respective positions, there may simply not be enough room for Baez, whose
poor plate discipline has many scouts questioning what type of hitter he'll be
in the majors.</div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<b>4) The A's must
REALLY love <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=robert004dan">Daniel Robertson</a>.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The A's belief that Russell would one day evolve into a
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml">Barry Larkin</a>-type shortstop was no secret.
In fact, last winter many teams reportedly called Beane to ask about
Russell's availability only to be turned down.
However, Robertson's emergence this year probably made it easier for the
A's brass to part with the precocious Russell.</div>
<br />
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Robertson, just 20, is having a banner offensive year at
High A Stockton, where he's hitting .297/.402/.465 against older
competition. More importantly, however,
has been his defensive development. Drafted
out of high school as a shortstop in 2012, Robertson was always viewed as a guy
who'd one day shift to third base, where he profiles as a <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml">David Wright</a> clone. That was until he showed up
in spring training with much more range and improved glove work. </div>
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Believe it or not, we're already past the mathematical
midpoint of the season. And believe it
or not, the <b>Cardinals</b> are 44-39. A decent record, but one that would leave
them out of the playoffs if the season ended on June 30th. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
St. Louis' pitching -- more specifically, it's pitching
health -- has been its Achilles heel this year.
Despite a sterling 10-4, 2.01 mark, <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml">Adam Wainwright</a></span> has battled elbow inflammation and recently missed a start, while
shoulder ailments have forced <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml">Michael Wacha</a></span> and <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcija02.shtml">Jaime Garcia</a></span> to join <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kellyjo05.shtml">Joe Kelly</a></span>
and his sore hamstring on the disabled list.
</div>
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And to make matters worse, <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millesh01.shtml">Shelby Miller</a></span> has been plagued by inconsistency after a solid rookie campaign
in 2013.</div>
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What St. Louis needs is a rotation stalwart, a guy who can
take the ball every fifth day and give the bullpen a reprieve by going seven, eight, or even nine innings while
stifling even the toughest opposing lineups.
<span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml">David Price</a></span> is that guy.<u><o:p></o:p></u></div>
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Has <i>anything</i> gone
right for the <b>Rays</b> in 2014? Serious
injuries to <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moorema02.shtml">Matt Moore</a></span> (Tommy John Surgery), <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hellije01.shtml">Jeremy Hellickson</a></span> (arthroscopic elbow surgery), and <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbal01.shtml">Alex Cobb</a></span> (oblique strain), left the pitching staff in
tatters for most of the first half, while subpar performances by virtually all
key position players have severely weakened the lineup. The end result has been a 36-49 record, the
worst in the American League.</div>
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Even Yogi Berra would admit that the Rays' season is
essentially over, and, given the Rays' financial constraints, it's time for GM
Andrew Friedman to start shedding marketable assets and position the team for
the future. He should start with Price,
the organization's most coveted player.</div>
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<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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<b><u>The Trade:</u></b> The Rays trade Price to the Cardinals for OF <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=piscot001ste">Stephen Piscotty</a></span>, RHP <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://carlos%20martinez/">CarlosMartinez</a></span>, and LHP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=kamins000rob">Rob Kaminsky</a>.</div>
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<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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<b><u>What the Cardinals
are getting:</u></b> A stud, plain and
simple. Much has been written about
Price's diminished stuff, but according to <span style="color: red;">Fan Graphs</span>,
Price's fastball velocity in his last five starts -- a stretch in which he's
struck out at least ten hitters in each outing -- is at a two-year high, and
the movement on his renowned slider is nearly as good as ever. Price would serve as the ideal left-handed
foil to Wainwright, and, along with the reliable Lance Lynn, would give St.
Louis the starting troika necessary to repel all Wild Card challengers and
advance deep into October.</div>
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Price, who's not a free agent until after the 2015 season,
would be available to the Cardinals for <i>two</i>
stretch runs, which should substantially increase the Rays' asking price.</div>
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<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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<b><u>What the Rays are
getting:</u></b> Tampa GM Andrew
Friedman will surely ask for hotshot OF prospect <span style="color: red;">Oscar
Taveras</span>, a request that Cardinals boss John Mozeliak will certainly
rebuke in this era of suppressed offense.
However, a Piscotty/Martinez/Kaminsky package makes for an excellent
consolation prize. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Piscotty, 23, has a skill set similar to the Rays' currently
disabled wunderkind Wil Myers, except Piscotty has slightly less power and
walks more. He can play either outfield corner
and is hitting .312/.373/.444 at Triple A.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Martinez, who's alternated between starting and relieving at
the big league level, is a flamethrower with enough secondary pitches to make
it as a #3 starter. The 22-year-old
Dominican has a WHIP of 1.33 and 3.48 ERA in 48 major league innings this
season.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kaminsky, 19, would be much more than just a throw-in. The southpaw was St. Louis' first round pick
last year and is currently eating up Low A hitters to the tune of a 1.26 ERA, 0.900
WHIP, and 47 strikeouts in 50 innings.</div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In
exchange for 1.5 years of Price, the Rays would be getting 17.5
years of control of the three aforementioned prospects.</span></span></div>
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The Padres' season has not gone according to plan, to say
the least.</div>
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<br /></div>
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After increasing payroll by 32 percent and beginning the
2014 campaign with Wild Card hopes, the team stumbled out of the gate and by
the last week of June was mired in fourth place in the NL West with a 34-45
record, just 1.5 games ahead of the woeful cellar-dwelling Arizona
Diamondbacks.</div>
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<br /></div>
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San Diego's anemic offense has been the primary culprit, as
its .216 batting average (yes, .<i>216</i>)
is MLB's worst since the 1910 White Sox, and only <i>one</i> regular with more than 200 plate appearances -- <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithse01.shtml">Seth Smith</a> -- has an
OPS higher than .617, which, on a park-adjusted basis, is 22 percent lower than
the National League average.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And despite a respectable 3.38 ERA -- 5th best in the NL --
the Padres' pitching staff has not been without its disappointments. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo09.shtml">Josh Johnson</a>,
signed as a free agent to be the ace of the staff, will not even take the mound
in 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cashnan01.shtml">Andrew Cashner</a>,
the team's de facto top gun, has already been on the disabled list twice this
season due to elbow and shoulder soreness , and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kenneia01.shtml">Ian Kennedy</a>, the rotation's #2 arm and after Johnson its priciest, has a
ballpark-adjusted ERA that's well above league average.</div>
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<br /></div>
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On another negative note, Byrnes & Co. have doled out
several long-term contracts to several young players who simply haven't
performed after signing on the dotted line.
The Maybin family was celebrating in March 2012 when <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maybica01.shtml">Cameron</a> inked a 5-year/$25 million deal, but he's posted
a lethargic .241/.297/.353 slash line since then. Byrnes, a former Red Sox executive, probably
had visions of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml">Dustin Pedroia</a> when he signed 2B <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gyorkje01.shtml">Jedd Gyorko</a> to a 6-year/$36 million dollar contract
prior to Opening Day, but Gyorko's .482 OPS has instead evoked memories of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/milbola01.shtml">Larry Milbourne</a>.
RHP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/luebkco01.shtml">Cory Luebke</a> and C <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/luebkco01.shtml">Nick Hundley</a> have also regressed or been injured since signing
extensions.</div>
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So what you have here is a hazardous concoction of a popgun
offense, an underperforming pitching staff, and an ownership group convinced it
hadn't realized a justifiable return on its investment. The end result was the pink slip that landed
on Josh Byrnes' desk on Saturday , a mere three-and-a-half years after he was
hired.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Whether Byrnes deserved to be fired after such a short
tenure is still up for debate. Some
national writers, such as <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24594674/padres-who-need-all-the-help-they-can-get-fire-a-good-baseball-man">Jon Heyman</a>, argue that
Byrnes' ouster was ill-advised, while others, like <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=2451">Keith Law</a> (ESPN subscription required) and <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/sd/anthony-castrovince-padres-make-the-right-move-in-underwhelming-season?ymd=20140622&content_id=81124346&vkey=news_sd">Anthony Castrovince</a>, maintain that it was time for Byrnes to go.</div>
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<br /></div>
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However, what no one has discussed is the fact that San
Diego's loaded farm system will give Byrnes' permanent replacement a tremendous
competitive advantage when he moves into the corner office and starts to make
his own mark on the organization. At
nearly every position on the field the Padres boast a top-tier prospect who
ranks among the top 100 in the game.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let's start with catcher, where 21-year-old <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hedges000aus">Austin Hedges</a> is one of the two best all-round
backstops in the minor leagues (the Red Sox' <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla">Blake Swihart</a> is the other). Don't be
fooled by Hedges' pedestrian numbers at Double A San Antonio, one of the most
pitcher-friendly parks in the minors, and instead pay attention to his
outstanding contact rates and burgeoning power.
On defense, Hedges has no peer.
His soft hands, agility, and strong, accurate arm should translate into
multiple Gold Glove awards.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hedges' new teammate, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=renfro002dus">Hunter Renfroe</a>,
has raced through the system and reached Double A less than a year after
signing as San Diego's 1st round pick out of Mississippi State. Renfroe, 22, profiles as a classic power bat/rifle-armed
right fielder a la <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salmoti01.shtml">Tim Salmon</a>. He has some swing-and-miss to his game but
has made huge strides since starting his professional career.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At Low A Fort Wayne, first baseman <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bauers000jak">Jake Bauers</a> has done nothing but hit.
A 7th round pick last year, Bauers is shredding Midwest League pitching
to the tune of .379/.453/.563 and at 18 is the youngest player is the
circuit. Though not a slugger in the
classic sense, Bauers' smooth left-handed stroke and slick glove work evoke
memories of Mark Grace.</div>
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Across the diamond from Bauers, third baseman <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peters000dus">Dustin Peterson</a> has also drawn rave reviews from
scouts and opposing managers. Signed as
a shortstop out of the Arizona prep ranks, the 19-year-old's above average
range and cannon arm have enabled him to make a seamless transition to the hot
corner. At the plate, Peterson's short,
compact swing should be good for at least a .270-.280 average and 20-25
home runs a year once he fills out.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Residents of Eugene, Oregon better hurry to PK Park if they
want to catch a glimpse of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=turner000tre">Trea Turner</a> before
this year's 1st round pick gets promoted.
Turner is an electric shortstop who can transform a game with his bat,
glove, and especially his legs. In just eight
games, Turner has swiped five bags without getting caught.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Admittedly, the Padres aren't as stacked in the pitching
department, and attrition commonly claims more hurlers than it does
hitters. But San Diego does boast a
number of talented, young arms capable of making an impact at the big league
level.</div>
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<span style="color: red;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kellyca01.shtml">Casey Kelly</a> should already be
in his second full major league season, Tommy John surgery in March 2013
derailed his plans. When healthy,
Kelly's best pitch is a 92-94 MPH power sinker that induces groundball after
groundball. The 24-year-old threw well
in two rehab starts at AA, but remains sidelined after experiencing what the
Padres described as minor elbow soreness.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League has
distorted <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wisler000mat">Matt Wisler's</a> numbers, but the 21-year-old
has all the tools to develop into a legitimate #2 starter once he learns how to
better put away left-handed hitters.
Wisler has exceptional control of a fastball he can dial up to the
mid-90s, a sharp slider, and an average changeup.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
20-year-old LHP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=fried-001max">Max Fried</a> has
been called "<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml">Clayton Kershaw</a> light"
and "another <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml">Cole Hamels</a>" because of
his mound moxie, projectability, and quality stuff. However, the 20-year-old former 1st round
selection hasn't pitched a single inning this year due to elbow soreness. The team maintains that his arm is
structurally sound and doesn't require surgery.
When right, Fried has more upside than any other pitcher in the
organization, so it's imperative that he regain his health.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hard-throwing RHPs <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=eflin-000zac">Zack Eflin</a>
and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=weicke001wal">Walker Weickel</a> were selected in the same 2012
draft as Fried and have had mixed results as minor leaguers. Eflin has progressed nicely through the
system and had an excellent first two months in the hitter-friendly High Class
A California League this season. After a
rocky 2013 in Low A, Weickel has repeated the assignment and continues to experience
mechanical issues with his delivery.
However, scouts remain encouraged by his large, durable frame and above
average 3-pitch repertoire.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Padres may have pulled off the heist of last month's
draft when RHP Zach Lemond fell to them in the 3rd
round. The big right-hander from Rice
was having a terrific season after making the transition from the bullpen to
the starting rotation, where he showcased an impressive 3-pitch mix that
included a mid-90's heater, ridiculous mid-80's spike curveball, and effective fading
changeup. However, elbow inflammation
and the poor injury history of former Rice pitchers scared teams away in the
first two rounds.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Speaking of the draft, a continuation of their poor
performance will guarantee the Padres a high pick next year (if the 2015 draft
was held tomorrow San Diego would have the 5th pick), and give the organization
the opportunity to add to its already impressive stockpile of premium talent.</div>
</div>
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Of course, many of these players will sign pro contracts after being drafted in June and will never step foot on a college campus.</span></div><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><div align="justify"><br />1) <strong>Tyler Matzek</strong>, LHP; <strong>Oregon</strong> – This projectable lefty boasts a polished four-pitch repertoire, including a 93-94 mph fastball.</div><div align="justify"><br />2) <strong>Shelby Miller</strong>, RHP; <strong>Texas A&M</strong> – Rapidly rising up draft boards due to easy mid 90's velocity and much improved offspeed stuff.</div><div align="justify"><br />3) <strong>Matt Purke</strong>, LHP; <strong>Texas Christian</strong> – Eerily similar to Matzek, however he's not as developed physically and his motion is more three-quarters.</div><div align="justify"><br />4) <strong>Austin Maddox</strong>, C; <strong>Florida</strong> – Simply put, a beast. An intimidating presence both at the plate and behind it. </div><div align="justify"><br />5) <strong>Jacob Turner</strong>, RHP; <strong>North Carolina</strong> – Well-proportioned power pitcher with two plus pitches and the command of a college upperclassman.</div><div align="justify"><br />6) <strong>Donavan Tate</strong>, OF; <strong>North Carolina</strong> – The best athlete in the entire draft. Lethal bat, laser arm and blazing speed. Also a prized football recruit.</div><div align="justify"><br />7) <strong>Zach Wheeler</strong>, RHP; <strong>Kennesaw State</strong> – His commitment to a third-tier program all but ensures that he'll head straight to the pro ranks.</div><div align="justify"><br />8) <strong>Matt Davidson</strong>, 3B; <strong>USC</strong> – Coming off a down junior season, he torched showcase pitching all summer.</div><div align="justify"><br />9) <strong>Luke Bailey</strong>, C; <strong>Auburn</strong> – The best all-around catcher in a loaded high school crop. Could easily start right now for most Division I programs.</div><div align="justify"><br />10) <strong>Tyler Skaggs</strong>, LHP; <strong>Cal State Fullerton</strong> – Not as mechanically-sound as Matzek and Purke, but has just as much velocity with more room for projection.</div><div align="justify"><br />11) <strong>Bobby Borchering</strong>, 3B; <strong>Florida</strong> – Displays startling power from both sides of the plate. An adequate fielder who should be able to stick at the hot corner.</div><div align="justify"><br />12) <strong>Jonathan Walsh</strong>, C; <strong>Texas</strong> – Very athletic for a catcher. Smacks the ball from both sides of the plate and has exceptional mobility and a nice arm behind it.</div><div align="justify"><br />13) <strong>Madison Younginer</strong>, RHP; <strong>Clemson</strong> – Superb mechanics and a picture perfect pitcher's build. Mixes a 90-93 mph fastball with a solid curveball and changeup.</div><div align="justify"><br />14) <strong>Jeff Malm</strong>, 1B; <strong>USC</strong> – His smooth swing and slick fielding conjure up memories of a Casey Kotchman circa 2001. </div><div align="justify"><br />15) <strong>Brian Goodwin</strong>, OF; <strong>North Carolina</strong> – His pure hitting/speed package elicit Curtis Granderson comparisons. A true center fielder.</div><div align="justify"><br />16) <strong>Jiovanni Mier</strong>, SS; <strong>USC</strong> – Acrobatic fielder whose offense has started to catch up to the rest of his game. Enjoyed an excellent showcase season.</div><div align="justify"><br />17) <strong>Mychal Givens</strong>, P/SS; <strong>Oklahoma State</strong> – Despite highlight reel ability at shortstop, his future's on the mound. Throws 95 mph easy with a good curveball.</div><div align="justify"><br />18) <strong>Max Stassi</strong>, C; <strong>UCLA</strong> – Fantastic catch-and-throw skills, including a gun for an arm. Also displays surprising pop given his smallish stature.</div><div align="justify"><br />19) <strong>Ian Krol</strong>, LHP; <strong>Arizona</strong> – A "finesse" lefty who has three plus pitches including a 90+ mph fastball.</div><div align="justify"><br />20) <strong>Matt Hobgood</strong>, RHP; <strong>Cal State Fullerton</strong> – Already enormous and hasn't stopped growing. Rough mechanics could land him in the pen full-time.</div><div align="justify"><br />21) <strong>Deven Marrero</strong>, SS; <strong>Arizona State</strong> – Silky-smooth fielder with an ideal shortstop's build. His bat lags behind his glove but is rapidly improving.</div><div align="justify"><br />22) <strong>Jacob Marisnick</strong>, OF; <strong>Oregon</strong> – Projection oozes from his lithe, yet muscular, frame. A five-tool athlete who resembles Dale Murphy on the diamond.</div><div align="justify"><br />23) <strong>Richie Shaffer</strong>, 3B; <strong>Clemson</strong> – A prototypical third baseman with a howitzer for an arm and immense power potential. Would likely start as a freshman.</div><div align="justify"><br />24) <strong>LeVon Washington</strong>, 2B; <strong>Florida</strong> – The fastest player on this list who can play anywhere in the middle of the diamond. Potent bat with plenty of gap power.</div><div align="justify"><br />25) <strong>Keyvius Sampson</strong>, RHP; <strong>Florida State</strong> – Live body and live arm. Already throws 92-94 mph and projects to throw harder once he matures. </div><div align="justify"><br />26) <strong>Patrick Schuster</strong>, LHP; <strong>Florida</strong> – Has very similar mechanics to Purke, though his stuff isn't as crisp.</div><div align="justify"><br />27) <strong>Chad James</strong>, LHP; <strong>Oklahoma State</strong> – Yet another lanky lefty whose three-pitch mix includes low 90's heat.</div><div align="justify"><br />28) <strong>Slade Heathcott</strong>, OF; <strong>LSU</strong> – Can hit 94 mph from the mound, but his future lies elsewhere. Lightning quick bat and a strong, accurate arm from the outfield.</div><div align="justify"><br />29) <strong>Will Myers</strong>, 3B; <strong>South Carolina</strong> – Accomplished athlete who has both caught and pitched in high school. Has undeniable power potential.</div><div align="justify"><br />30) <strong>Danny Aldrich</strong>, OF; <strong>Wake Forest</strong> – A picture-perfect left-handed stroke. MVP of the '08 Summer World Wood Bat Tournament.<br /> </span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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Looked great in fall ball.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Shortstop</strong> – Andy Burns, Kentucky – Highest ranked high school prospect in Colorado held his own as a 17-year-old in the Northwoods League last summer.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Third Base</strong> – Zack Cox, Arkansas – Has prodigious raw power from the left side and a cannon arm at the hot corner. Will be draft eligible as a sophomore.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Outfield</strong> – Brian Humphries, Pepperdine – If he develops more power he has more upside than any other position player on this list. Should lead off in '09. </div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Outfield</strong> – Zach Cone, Georgia – Breathtaking five tool potential yet still very raw. Might see only limited playing time this year.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Outfield </strong>– Chase Davidson, Georgia – Has the most power in the entire freshman class, however he's streaky. Runs well for his size and has a strong throwing arm.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Designated Hitter</strong> – Harold Martinez, Miami – Will try to reverse a disappointing end to his high school career. Expected to start immediately at third base for the Hurricanes.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher </strong>– Gerrit Cole, UCLA – The most highly touted member of his class. Turned down $2 million from the Yankees and will bring his 97 mph heater to Westwood.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher</strong> – Sonny Gray, Vanderbilt – An arm injury and an ironclad Vandy commitment severely hurt his draft stock. Will probably begin as a weekday starter.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher</strong> – Alex Meyer, Kentucky – He turned down $2 million and a trip on Red Sox owner John Henry's private plane for a chance to pitch for his mother's alma matter.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher </strong>– Michael Palazzone, Georgia – Lanky projectable build with best curveball in '08 high school class. Also features a 92-94 MPH fastball.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher</strong> – Mark Pope, Georgia Tech – Will break in as G-Tech's closer, but he's too good to remain in the bullpen for his entire college career.<br /><br />Second Team</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Catcher </strong>– Ben McMahon, Florida – Will start immediately for the Gators and contribute both on offensive and defense.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>First Base</strong> – Ricky Oropesa, Southern California – USC's lone marquee freshman should be a fixture in the middle of the lineup right out of the gate.</div><div align="justify"> </div><div align="justify"><strong>Second Base</strong> – Riccio Torres, Arizona State – Joins older brother Raoul in the Sun Devils' infield. Already has enough plate discipline to be an effective lead-off hitter.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Shortstop</strong> – Brandon Loy, Texas – He leveraged an excellent fall into a starting assignment in the spring. A defensive whiz.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Third Base</strong> – Shane Kroker, Wake Forest – A defensive standout who could probably start at shortstop for most teams. However, questions about his bat remain.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Outfield</strong> – Cory Farris, Kentucky – This former All-Kentucky running back showcased his exceptional strength with mammoth home runs in fall ball.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Outfield</strong> – Bryan Haar, San Diego – Uber-athletic middle-of-the-field player who enjoyed a banner summer in Alaska.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Outfield</strong> – Austin Stadler, Wake Forest – Had an eye-opening fall, hitting .396. Should also see time on the mound, where he led the Deacons in scrimmages with 21 strikeouts.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Designated Hitter</strong> – Zack Wilson, Arizona State – Will see action all over the diamond in '09. Hits the ball with authority to all fields.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher</strong> – Daniel Marrs, Wake Forest – Improved conditioning has allowed him to tighten up his body and improve his endurance. Should see action as a weekend starter.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher</strong> – Nick Maronde, Florida – Excellent mound presence and moxie are overshadowed by three quality pitches, including a low 90's fastball with tailing action.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher</strong> – Brett Mooneyham, Stanford – Will compete for a spot in the Cardinal's weekend rotation. His father, Bill, pitched in the majors with Oakland. </div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher</strong> – Brian Busick, Stanford – A pro body with four above average pitches. A near lock to be a weekend starter in 2010. Will serve in the bullpen until then.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Pitcher</strong> – Anthony Fazio, Rice – He'll compete with fellow freshman Taylor Wall for the Sunday starter role. The loser will start mid-week.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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Has the strong arm and quick release necessary to stop any running game.</div><div align="justify"><br />First Base</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Hunter Morris</strong>, Sophomore, Auburn – The most imposing power hitter in the sophomore class. Makes surprising contact for the style of hitter he is and has showed the ability to work a walk. An average first baseman with soft hands but substandard footwork and range.</div><div align="justify"><br />Second Base</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Kyle Seager</strong>, Junior, North Carolina – An excellent pure hitter who makes plenty of contact with hard backspin. His swing rarely gets long due to his simple, mechanically sound approach. A former shortstop, he has more than enough arm for second and is adept at turning the double play.</div><div align="justify"><br />Shortstop</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Rick Hague</strong>, Sophomore, Rice – A physical shortstop in the same mold as Green. He centers the ball well and has good loft in his swing. Is sure-handed with plenty of range and a cannon arm. Missed summer ball due to shoulder surgery, but should be ready to go by spring.</div><div align="justify"><br />Third Base</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Chris Dominguez</strong>, Red Shirt Junior, Louisville – By far the most power of any collegiate. First player on the Cape to hit three homers in one game since Frank Thomas in 1988. A solid fielder but will probably outgrow third base. Returned to school after being selected in the 5th round by the Rockies.</div><div align="justify"><br />Outfield</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Brett Jackson</strong>, Junior, California (Berkeley) – Perhaps the best raw athlete on either team, he was a standout football player in high school. Started to put it all together last summer on the Cape, where he flashed an intimidating power/speed combo. Should be able to stay in center field as a pro.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Brett Eibner</strong>, Sophomore, Arkansas – Earned more accolades as a pitcher in high school but has tremendous upside as a hitter. Though still somewhat raw, he's showed good power to all fields as well as the ability to hit for average. His speed/arm combo enables him to play anywhere in the outfield.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Matt den Dekker</strong>, Junior, Florida – A dynamic all-around player. A line drive machine who's developed more punch as he's filled out. Has had difficulty hitting with wood, however. Has blazing speed in addition to being an intelligent base runner. A true center fielder with an adequate arm. </div><div align="justify"><br />Designated Hitter</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Marc Krauss</strong>, Junior, Ohio – The second-best pure hitter in the college ranks after Ackley, but lacks Ackley's athleticism. Stung the ball the entire summer on the Cape and was especially proficient going the other way. Has an average arm, but poor speed could result in a move to first base.</div><div align="justify"><br />Starting Pitchers</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Kyle Blair</strong>, Sophomore, San Diego – Should battle Harvey as the best collegiate pitcher in 2010. Reminds many scouts of Kevin Brown due to his build and terrific command of a mid 90's power sinker and vicious slider. Sat out most of last summer because of a heavy spring workload.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Brandon Workman</strong>, Sophomore, Texas – Was unhittable at times on the Cape last summer, mixing a boring 93-95 mph fastball with an above average slider and developing changeup. His large, sturdy build should enable him to become a front-of-the-rotation horse at the next level.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Chance Ruffin</strong>, Sophomore, Texas – The son of 12-year major league veteran Bruce Ruffin, he has the moxie and poise you'd expect from someone with such a pedigree. He also has first-rate stuff, including a fastball he can dial into the mid-90's, a hammer curve and serviceable changeup.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Mike Minor</strong>, Junior, Vanderbilt – Compares favorably to former Commodore Jeremy Sowers. Throws the kitchen sink at hitters -- a 88-91 mph fastball, spike curveball, slider and circle changeup. Not an intimidating mound presence, but should evolve into a reliable #3 in pro ball.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Barret Loux</strong>, Sophomore, Texas A&M – A big, flamethrowing Texan in the same mold as Workman, He uses an electric mid-90's fastball to set up his power curve and above average changeup. A well-conditioned athlete who maintains his velocity well into the late innings.</div><div align="justify"><br />Reliever</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Jason Stoffel</strong>, Junior, Arizona – Strong, compact build with especially thick legs. Throws a low 90's fastball with good movement as well as a power curve. Perfect closer mentality -- never gets rattled and has a short memory. Threw a plus changeup in high school but hasn't needed it in college.<br /> </span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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As a result, preferential treatment is admittedly given to hitters who have enjoyed success swinging wood bats in summer league play.</span></div><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><div align="justify"><br />Catcher</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Ryan Ortiz</strong>, Junior, Oregon State – An offense-first catcher who has made significant strides defensively. Extremely quick to the ball. Has also added power as he's filled out. His quick release compensates for a fringe average arm. Needs more work blocking pitches in the dirt.</div><div align="justify"><br />First Base</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Ben Paulsen</strong>, Junior, Clemson – Generates terrific power with a balanced left-handed stroke. Unlike most home run hitters, he has almost no uppercut. His swing does get long at times, however, which leaves him susceptible to high, hard stuff. A slick fielder with exceptionally soft hands.</div><div align="justify"><br />Second Base</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Robbie Shields</strong>, Junior, Florida Southern – Don't let the Division II school fool you. He derives outstanding bat speed from strong wrists and forearms, which results in power to all fields. Currently a shortstop, but his lack of range will likely force a move to second. His bat also projects at the hot corner.</div><div align="justify"><br />Shortstop</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Grant Green</strong>, Junior, Southern California – A new generation, five-tool shortstop in the mold of Troy Tulowitzki. Gets good extension on his swing with the ability to hit for both average and power. Sure-handed in the field with a cannon arm. Should be a top five pick in June.</div><div align="justify"><br />Third Base</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Derek Dietrich</strong>, Sophomore, Georgia Tech – A strong left-handed hitter in the Robin Ventura mold. Has undeniable power but is also adept at shortening his stroke with two strikes. He might outgrow shortstop, but his arm plays anywhere on the diamond. A probable first round pick in 2010.</div><div align="justify"><br />Outfield</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Dustin Ackley</strong>, Junior, North Carolina – A hitting machine who sprays line drives all over the field with a short, crisp swing. Boasts great speed. Should be ready to man center field in '09 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery last summer. The second-highest ranked position player after Green.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Kentrail Davis</strong>, Sophomore, Tennessee – Draft eligible sophomore has a potent left-handed bat capable of scorching line drives to all fields. Runs very well despite stocky build, though he's expected to slow considerably once he reaches his late 20's. A poor fielder whose weak arm limits him to left field.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>A.J. Pollack</strong>, Junior, Notre Dame – Despite two solid seasons in South Bend, he didn't gain notoriety until he hit .377 on the Cape in '08 while flashing an impressive mix of power and speed. A solid center fielder who could enhance his value by moving to second base in the pros.</div><div align="justify"><br />Designated Hitter</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Blake Smith</strong>, Junior, California (Berkeley) – An interesting two-way player. At the plate he reminds scouts of Ryan Klesko with his light-tower power. On the mound he hits 93 mph on the gun and also features a sharp curveball. He currently profiles best as a rifle-armed, power-hitting right fielder.</div><div align="justify"><br />Starting Pitchers</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Stephen Strasburg</strong>, Junior, San Diego State – The most complete college pitching prospect since Mark Prior in '01. Throws a fastball which reaches the high 90's, a hammer curve and solid changeup, all with extraordinary command. Has a large, durable frame and sound mechanics.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Alex White, Junior</strong>, North Carolina – Another premier pitching prospect. Repertoire features a fastball in the mid 90's and a wicked slider, though he must work on his command and fine tune his changeup. Accomplished athlete with the stamina necessary to maintain his velocity deep into games.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Kyle Gibson</strong>, Junior, Missouri – The latest stud in a long line of Missouri aces. Already hits the low 90's with his fastball and should add a few more ticks once he fills out. Also throws the best slider in the college ranks. However, he still needs to tighten his motion and refine his mechanics.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Andrew Oliver</strong>, Junior, Oklahoma State – Eligibility is in doubt due to alleged relationship with a pro agent. Still, his talent is evident every time he takes the mound. Throws a heavy 92-93 mph two-seamer as well as a cutter. Curveball and changeup also show promise. Pinpoint control.</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Matt Harvey</strong>, Sophomore, North Carolina – Likely the #1 ranked pitcher in 2010. Throws a lively 92-94 mph fastball with late, darting life, in addition to a first-rate curve and changeup. Excellent mound presence. His lanky build and easy arm action leave plenty of room for projection.</div><div align="justify"><br />Relief Pitcher</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Kendal Volz</strong>, Junior, Baylor – Had far more success coming out of the bullpen for Team USA than as a starter for Baylor. Throws mid 90's heat with a power curveball. His lack of a changeup and intimidating mound presence could translate into a closer role in pro ball.<br /> </span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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Here’s the lineup:</span></div><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><div align="justify"><br />Today we’ll give our Preseason Top 40.</div><div align="justify"><br />Tomorrow we’ll provide our Preseason First Team All-Americans.</div><div align="justify"><br />Wednesday our Preseason Second Team All-Americans will be available.</div><div align="justify"><br />Thursday we’ll uncover the Freshman All-Americans.</div><div align="justify"><br />Finally, Friday we’ll cover the Top Thirty Recruits for 2010.</div><div align="justify"><br />So, without further ado, here’s your Preseason Top 40 for 2009:</div><div align="justify"><br />1) <strong>North Carolina</strong> -- No school has a 1-2 starting pitching tandem as intimidating as Alex White and Matt Harvey. <br /><br />2) <strong>Louisiana State</strong> -- They have college baseball's most toxic lineup with a perfect mix of speed, power and high average hitters.<br /><br />3) <strong>Rice</strong> – Will Rick Hague be next year's Grant Green?<br /><br />4) <strong>Texas</strong> – Chance Ruffin, Brandon Workman, Cole Green, Cameron Rupp & Kevin Keyes give the 'Horns the best sophomore class in the nation.<br /><br />5) <strong>Texas A&M</strong> – Barret Loux, Alex Wilson, Brooks Raley and Clayton Ehlert represent the deepest starting pitching quartet in the country.<br /><br />6) <strong>Stanford</strong> – Brent Milleville, Joey August and Jeff Whitlow will add senior experience to an otherwise underwhelming lineup.<br /><br />7) <strong>Clemson</strong> – Once again, Coach Leggett fields the deepest team in the ACC.<br /><br />8) <strong>San Diego</strong> – The million dollar question -- Will Kyle Blair be able to replace Brian Matusz at the top of USD's vaunted rotation?<br /><br />9) <strong>Georgia Tech</strong> – Coach Hall's decision to insert freshman Mark Pope into the closer's role speaks volumes as to the sorry state of the Yellow Jackets' bullpen.<br /><br />10) <strong>Missouri</strong> – Max Scherzer, Aaron Crow………Kyle Gibson. Mizzou is developing quite a pitching legacy.<br /><br />11) <strong>Cal State Fullerton</strong> – Gary Brown, Christian Colon and Josh Fellhauer are all locks to steal 20 bases in '09.<br /><br />12) <strong>Oklahoma State</strong> – Much of their success will hinge on whether stud southpaw Andy Oliver is deemed eligible by the NCAA.<br /><br />13) <strong>Baylor</strong> – This is the last chance for Kendal Volz, Aaron Miller and Dustin Dickerson to justify all the hype that surrounded them as incoming freshman.<br /><br />14) <strong>Georgia</strong> – Growing pains? On any one day there might be as many as four freshman starting for Coach Perno.<br /><br />15) <strong>Miami (FL)</strong> – The loss of Erik Erickson to arm surgery could have a devastating effect on the Hurricanes' pitching staff.<br /><br />16) <strong>Arkansas</strong> – Brett Eibner is the best prospect no one's ever heard of.<br /><br />17) <strong>Arizona State</strong> – Will this year's freshman crop be as good as the one from '06? It better be because the Sun Devils' fortunes depend on it.<br /><br />18) <strong>Mississippi</strong> – After Arizona State's Carlos Ramirez, David Phillips will be the JuCo transfer to make the biggest impact in '09.<br /><br />19) <strong>Florida State</strong> – Unlike highly-ranked FSU squads of the past, this year's version has no surefire early round picks.<br /><br />20) <strong>Kentucky</strong> – The Wild Cats will get as far as the freshman trio of Alex Meyer, Andy Burns and Cory Farris take them.<br /><br />21) <strong>Louisville</strong> – 6'4" 240 lbs man-child Chris Dominguez gives new meaning to the moniker "Louisville Slugger."<br /><br />22) <strong>UCLA </strong>– Gerrit Cole is our early favorite for Freshman of the Year.<br /><br />23) <strong>UC Irvine</strong> – Talk about underwhelming on paper -- we'd be shocked if ONE player from this team advances past Double A in pro ball.<br /><br />24) <strong>California</strong> (Berkeley) -- If Brett Jackson puts it all together he could emerge as the Pac-10's most dynamic player.<br /><br />25) <strong>Florida</strong> – There's always next year. The Gators are the unanimous choice for the strongest 2010 recruiting class. However, that may change on draft day.<br /><br />26) <strong>Oklahoma</strong> – As good as the Sooners are, they're only the consensus sixth-best team in the Big 12.<br /><br />27) <strong>Fresno State</strong> – On paper, the Bulldogs look merely pedestrian. Then again, last year this time people were saying the exact same thing about the defending champs.<br /><br />28) <strong>Southern California</strong> – He's still only 19, yet we've seemingly been waiting forever for junior Robert Stock to bust out.<br /><br />29) <strong>Pepperdine</strong> – Seeing how newcomer Brian Humphries develops will be one of this year's most interesting storylines. He has a chance to be a five-tool superstar.<br /><br />30) <strong>Coastal Carolina</strong> – If Scott Woodward hangs around for all four years he's almost a sure bet to swipe 200 bags.<br /><br />31) <strong>Tulane</strong> – The Green Wave will battle East Carolina all season for the C-USA's second slot behind perennial powerhouse Rice.<br /><br />32) <strong>Michigan</strong> – Chris Fetter is faced with the daunting task of replacing departed staff ace Zach Putnam.<br /><br />33) <strong>East Carolina</strong> – Say all you want about Rice and its dominance, but sophomore Seth Maness could easily emerge as the C-USA'a top pitcher in 2009.<br /><br />34) <strong>Alabama</strong> – Brandon May, Ross Wilson, Josh Rutledge and Jake Smith comprise college baseball's most talented all-around infield.<br /><br />35) <strong>Nebraska</strong> – With six teams ranked in front of them in the Big 12, the Cornhuskers would have to put together a dream season to make it to the 64-team dance.<br /><br />36) <strong>Auburn</strong> – Watching Kevin Patterson and Hunter Morris hit is in itself worth the price of admission.<br /><br />37) <strong>Wichita State</strong> – The fact that Wichita State is ranked first in the MVC after losing its six best players speaks to the weakness of the MVC more than anything else.<br /><br />38) <strong>South Carolina</strong> – Huge shoes to fill…..Justin Smoak, Phil Disher, Reese Havens and James Darnell took 79 home runs and 267 RBI with them to the pros.<br /><br />39) <strong>Virginia</strong> – The Cavaliers have a solid core of underclassmen, but replacing David Adams, Greg Miclat, Jeremy Farrell and Jacob Thompson is a lot to<br /><br />40) <strong>Oregon State</strong> -- If their pitching performs up to expectations, the Beavers could easily shock people and wind up in Omaha for the third time in four years.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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The Royals, on the other hand, play in one of baseball’s smallest markets, continually have one of the game’s lowest payrolls and have finished over .500 just ONCE during those same 14 seasons.</span></div><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><br /><div align="justify"><br />Their differences aside, the Yankees and Royals actually shared the back page this morning when both teams made superb personnel decisions. New York signed veteran lefty Andy Pettitte to a bargain basement one–year contract worth $5.5 million plus incentives, while Kansas City inked young ace Zack Greinke to a four-year deal worth $38 million.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br />To state each of the reasons why the Pettitte move was a good one for the Yankees would be an academic exercise at this point as every media outlet from ESPN to ranyontheroyals.com has dedicated valuable time and effort to that very task. However, the one benefit of the deal we feel obliged to discuss is the tremendous amount of flexibility it gives Yankees skipper Joe Girardi.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br />In Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, Girardi has at his disposal two young, ultra-talented right-handers. Yet both have serious questions as the 2009 season approaches. After bouncing from the bullpen to the starting rotation in ’08, Chamberlain’s assignment for this season is still somewhat murky, as is the general consensus regarding his durability as a starter. </div><br /><div align="justify"><br />Hughes endured a horrid ’08 campaign after logging only a handful innings in Triple A, and many in the game feel strongly that he needs more minor league seasoning before giving the big leagues another shot.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br />The re-signing of Pettitte allows New York greater latitude in dealing with Chamberlain and Hughes. Rather than having to once again force feed Hughes, the Yankees now have the luxury of giving Hughes all the time he needs in AAA. However, should the 22-year-old be lights out this spring and prove that he’s ready for primetime, Chamberlain can shift to the bullpen (where many analysts, including this writer, feel he belongs anyway), where he can serve as a caddy for Mariano Rivera. Rivera, it should be noted, turns 40 later this year and is recovering from shoulder surgery.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br />As an aside, we feel Pettitte will have a strong year. Not only will he be supported by a better defense and lineup, as well as have the incentive of earning an additional $6.5 million in assorted roster/performance bonuses, but he’ll also be pitching for a shot at the Hall of Fame. With 215 career victories, a 15+ win season would probably convince the native Texan, still just 36, to stick around in 2010. And if he gets into the 240-250 wins range, his sterling 18-7 postseason record, would help him considerably.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br />Halfway across this great country of ours, the Royals’ signing of Greinke was received with pure glee. And with good reason, as GM Dayton Moore hasn’t exactly impressed anyone with the moves he’s made this winter. With new arrivals Willie Bloomquist, CoCo Crisp and Mike Jacobs joining Jose Guillen and Miguel Olivo in K.C.’s starting lineup, Moore will be paying over $24 million this year to five guys with career OBPs of .331 and under.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br />And then there’s Kyle Farnsworth, who was rewarded for his 1.53 WHIP last year with a two-year deal guaranteeing him almost $10 million.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br />But, alas, Moore finally got one right by locking up Greinke through his first two years of free agency. Greinke had a breakthrough 2008, finishing in the top ten in the A.L. in ERA, total strikeouts, strikeouts per nine innings and strikeouts-to-walks, and at 25 is poised to emerge as one of the Junior Circuit’s top pitchers.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br />The new contract will pay Greinke $3.75 million this year, $7.25 million in 2010 and $13.5 million in 2011 and 2012. Assuming Greinke remains healthy (not an unreasonable assumption since he’s never missed time due to arm trouble), he would be a very sound investment for Moore and the Royals. </div><br /><div align="justify"></div><br /><div align="justify">To illustrate this point we’ve used the table below to compare Greinke’s metrics with other right-handers of the same body type (i.e. between six-feet and Greinke’s six-foot-three) and pitching style who earned more than $10 million in 2008. In the spirit of conservatism we’ve assumed that Greinke at 27 and 28, his prime years when he’ll be earning $13.5 million, will perform exactly as he did as a 24-year-old in ’08 and not experience the statistical spike most power pitchers do when they reach their late twenties.</div><br /><div align="justify"><br /><strong>Player Salary Innings ERA WHIP K/BB</strong><br /></div><br /><div align="justify">Greinke $13.5mm 202.3 3.47 1.28 3.27<br /></div><br /><div align="justify">Oswalt $13.0mm 208.7 3.54 1.18 3.51<br />Hudson $13.0mm 142.0 3.33 1.16 2.13<br />Vazquez $11.5mm 208.3 4.67 1.32 3.28<br />Sheets $11.0mm 198.3 3.09 1.15 3.36<br /></div><br /><div align="justify">After examining the evidence provided, it’s clear that even with the conservative estimate of his future performance, Greinke is easily on a par with his contemporaries earning eight figures per season. Now throw in the fact that salaries will escalate between 2008 and 2011-12 (when Greinke is due his $13.5 million per annum) and it becomes obvious that the Royals got themselves one heck of a deal. </div><br /><div align="justify">And for that they have the privilege of sharing the headlines with the vaunted Yankees. </div><br /><div align="justify">At least for a day. </span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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In fact, if Spring Training started tomorrow, manager Joe Girardi would be faced with the daunting task of determining who from the motley crew of Brett Gardner, Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera will patrol center field.</div><div align="justify"><br />Frankly put, none of the three has any business logging significant time in center for a contending team. Gardner’s a gifted fielder who can fly, but he was overmatched in 127 big league at bats last year to the tune of .228/.283/.299. </div><div align="justify"><br />Damon can still hit, as evidenced by his .303/.375/.461 effort in 2008, but chronic leg and ankle problems make his durability a big question mark. Plus, his popgun arm makes him a natural fit in left field. </div><div align="justify"><br />Cabrera regressed significantly at the plate in ’08 and most scouts agree that his ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder.</div><div align="justify"><br /><em>As a result, the Yankees’ lack of a viable center fielder combined with the Blue Jays’ dubious financial situation (discussed below) paves the way for an intriguing intra-divisional blockbuster in which New York sends outfielder Xavier Nady, young starter Ian Kennedy and prospect Austin Jackson north of the border in exchange for center fielder Vernon Wells.</em></div><div align="justify"><br />Let’s first dissect how this trade impacts the Yankees. In Wells, 30, Cashman has the opportunity to acquire one of baseball’s best all-round center fielders still in his prime. He’s a three-time Gold Glove winner, whose excellent instincts and cannon arm compensate for average speed.</div><div align="justify"><br />Wells’ superb defense notwithstanding, it’s on offense where the Yankees would really reap the benefits of adding the two-time All-Star to the mix. While the addition of Teixeira will certainly instill fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers, that alone won’t completely offset the loss of free agents Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu – two sluggers who have career OPS’ in excess of .900. </div><div align="justify"><br />While Wells is not an on-base machine in the mold of a Giambi or Abreu, he’s a legitimate 30 homer threat (he’s hit 28 or more home runs in three separate seasons) who can hit for a high average while making consistent contact. He’d represent a huge upgrade over either Gardner or Cabrera and would be a perfect fit to hit in the five-hole behind Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.</div><div align="justify"><br />Wells’ contract also works for the Yankees. Although he’s owed $117 million through 2014, he’s due to earn “only” $10 million in 2009. Assuming Nady makes $6 million next season (he’s arbitration eligible for the last time in ’09), adding the incremental $4 million to the payroll would still enable Cashman to meet his goal of having an ‘09 payroll lower than last season’s. </div><div align="justify"><br />Wells’ salary does rise dramatically over $20 million in 2010 and beyond, but it’s important to note that Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon and their combined ‘09 pay of $26 million, all are eligible to come off the books after next season.<br /> <br />Earlier we alluded to the perilous financial straits the Blue Jays could find themselves in going forward. This is true for two reasons. First, the Canadian dollar has depreciated by over 20% against the greenback (a troubling development for Toronto since the ball club derives a majority of its revenue in the local currency). Second, team owner Ted Rogers passed away in December, creating a power vacuum at the top and much speculation that the team will be sold.</div><div align="justify"><br />Given the economic plight the Jays might eventually find themselves in, trading Wells and the $117 million he’s owed is not out of the question. However, this trade is about more than simple dollars and cents as Nady, Kennedy and Jackson are all capable of making significant contributions.</div><div align="justify"><br />Nady is coming off an impressive .305/.357/.510 campaign and entering his walk year. And if history is any indication, he should be primed for another big season and therefore able to easily match Wells’ .839 OPS from a year ago. Nady would slide comfortably into right field and enable Alexis Rios to move to center, his natural position.</div><div align="justify"> <br />By acquiring Kennedy, the Blue Jays would be adding to an already-impressive stable of young arms, which includes the likes of Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Brett Cecil, and David Purcey. This is not insignificant given the fact that EVERY other team in the A.L. East – even the Orioles -- boasts a plethora of young, power pitching.</div><div align="justify"><br />This trade would not just benefit Toronto in the long run, however. With the recent defection of A.J. Burnett (to the Yankees, no less) and injuries to Marcum and McGowan, the addition of Kennedy would provide the Jays with much needed pitching depth for 2009. Also, it’s important to note that Kennedy isn’t arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season.</div><div align="justify"><br />Though Kennedy’s ’08 could be considered a lost year (0-4, 8.17), let’s not forget that he just turned 25 and his career WHIP and K:BB ratio in the minors are a world class 0.97 and 3.5:1, respectively. Perhaps all the laid back Californian needs to kick start his career is an escape from the New York pressure cooker.</div><div align="justify"><br />Jackson, the final piece of the Jays’ haul, has a skill set that is eerily reminiscent of Wells’ about a decade ago. Like Wells, his ability to take excellent routes to the ball and strong arm make up for speed that’s maybe a tick above average. While his home run power hasn’t yet manifested itself, his bat speed and crisp stroke suggest that he should be good for at least 20 dingers a year once he fills out and adds strength. All in all, Jackson would be an ideal long-term replacement for Wells and fit perfectly between Rios and Travis Snider in Toronto’s outfield of the future.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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