Infield Chatter

The Top 30 College Baseball Recruits for 2010

2009-02-06T17:52:00.000-08:00

In the final installment of our 2009 College Preview we take a look into a future as we provide the top 30 recruits for 2010. Of course, many of these players will sign pro contracts after being drafted in June and will never step foot on a college campus.

1) Tyler Matzek, LHP; Oregon – This projectable lefty boasts a polished four-pitch repertoire, including a 93-94 mph fastball.

2) Shelby Miller, RHP; Texas A&M – Rapidly rising up draft boards due to easy mid 90's velocity and much improved offspeed stuff.

3) Matt Purke, LHP; Texas Christian – Eerily similar to Matzek, however he's not as developed physically and his motion is more three-quarters.

4) Austin Maddox, C; Florida – Simply put, a beast. An intimidating presence both at the plate and behind it.

5) Jacob Turner, RHP; North Carolina – Well-proportioned power pitcher with two plus pitches and the command of a college upperclassman.

6) Donavan Tate, OF; North Carolina – The best athlete in the entire draft. Lethal bat, laser arm and blazing speed. Also a prized football recruit.

7) Zach Wheeler, RHP; Kennesaw State – His commitment to a third-tier program all but ensures that he'll head straight to the pro ranks.

8) Matt Davidson, 3B; USC – Coming off a down junior season, he torched showcase pitching all summer.

9) Luke Bailey, C; Auburn – The best all-around catcher in a loaded high school crop. Could easily start right now for most Division I programs.

10) Tyler Skaggs, LHP; Cal State Fullerton – Not as mechanically-sound as Matzek and Purke, but has just as much velocity with more room for projection.

11) Bobby Borchering, 3B; Florida – Displays startling power from both sides of the plate. An adequate fielder who should be able to stick at the hot corner.

12) Jonathan Walsh, C; Texas – Very athletic for a catcher. Smacks the ball from both sides of the plate and has exceptional mobility and a nice arm behind it.

13) Madison Younginer, RHP; Clemson – Superb mechanics and a picture perfect pitcher's build. Mixes a 90-93 mph fastball with a solid curveball and changeup.

14) Jeff Malm, 1B; USC – His smooth swing and slick fielding conjure up memories of a Casey Kotchman circa 2001.

15) Brian Goodwin, OF; North Carolina – His pure hitting/speed package elicit Curtis Granderson comparisons. A true center fielder.

16) Jiovanni Mier, SS; USC – Acrobatic fielder whose offense has started to catch up to the rest of his game. Enjoyed an excellent showcase season.

17) Mychal Givens, P/SS; Oklahoma State – Despite highlight reel ability at shortstop, his future's on the mound. Throws 95 mph easy with a good curveball.

18) Max Stassi, C; UCLA – Fantastic catch-and-throw skills, including a gun for an arm. Also displays surprising pop given his smallish stature.

19) Ian Krol, LHP; Arizona – A "finesse" lefty who has three plus pitches including a 90+ mph fastball.

20) Matt Hobgood, RHP; Cal State Fullerton – Already enormous and hasn't stopped growing. Rough mechanics could land him in the pen full-time.

21) Deven Marrero, SS; Arizona State – Silky-smooth fielder with an ideal shortstop's build. His bat lags behind his glove but is rapidly improving.

22) Jacob Marisnick, OF; Oregon – Projection oozes from his lithe, yet muscular, frame. A five-tool athlete who resembles Dale Murphy on the diamond.

23) Richie Shaffer, 3B; Clemson – A prototypical third baseman with a howitzer for an arm and immense power potential. Would likely start as a freshman.

24) LeVon Washington, 2B; Florida – The fastest player on this list who can play anywhere in the middle of the diamond. Potent bat with plenty of gap power.

25) Keyvius Sampson, RHP; Florida State – Live body and live arm. Already throws 92-94 mph and projects to throw harder once he matures.

26) Patrick Schuster, LHP; Florida – Has very similar mechanics to Purke, though his stuff isn't as crisp.

27) Chad James, LHP; Oklahoma State – Yet another lanky lefty whose three-pitch mix includes low 90's heat.

28) Slade Heathcott, OF; LSU – Can hit 94 mph from the mound, but his future lies elsewhere. Lightning quick bat and a strong, accurate arm from the outfield.

29) Will Myers, 3B; South Carolina – Accomplished athlete who has both caught and pitched in high school. Has undeniable power potential.

30) Danny Aldrich, OF; Wake Forest – A picture-perfect left-handed stroke. MVP of the '08 Summer World Wood Bat Tournament.

2009 Preseason College Baseball All-Freshman Teams

2009-02-06T07:28:00.000-08:00

The 2009 College Preview continues today with our Preseason Freshman All-America Teams.

First Team

Catcher – Jordan Swaggerty, Arizona State – Will initially share catching duties with JuCo transfer Carlos Ramiriez and should also see time in Coach Murphy's bullpen.

First Base – Danny Hultzen, Virginia – He very easily could have made this list as a pitcher, but he swung the Cavaliers' most potent bat in the fall.

Second Base – Tony Rendon, Rice – His athletic ability will enable him to play all over the diamond for Coach Graham. Looked great in fall ball.

Shortstop – Andy Burns, Kentucky – Highest ranked high school prospect in Colorado held his own as a 17-year-old in the Northwoods League last summer.

Third Base – Zack Cox, Arkansas – Has prodigious raw power from the left side and a cannon arm at the hot corner. Will be draft eligible as a sophomore.

Outfield – Brian Humphries, Pepperdine – If he develops more power he has more upside than any other position player on this list. Should lead off in '09.

Outfield – Zach Cone, Georgia – Breathtaking five tool potential yet still very raw. Might see only limited playing time this year.

Outfield – Chase Davidson, Georgia – Has the most power in the entire freshman class, however he's streaky. Runs well for his size and has a strong throwing arm.

Designated Hitter – Harold Martinez, Miami – Will try to reverse a disappointing end to his high school career. Expected to start immediately at third base for the Hurricanes.

Pitcher – Gerrit Cole, UCLA – The most highly touted member of his class. Turned down $2 million from the Yankees and will bring his 97 mph heater to Westwood.

Pitcher – Sonny Gray, Vanderbilt – An arm injury and an ironclad Vandy commitment severely hurt his draft stock. Will probably begin as a weekday starter.

Pitcher – Alex Meyer, Kentucky – He turned down $2 million and a trip on Red Sox owner John Henry's private plane for a chance to pitch for his mother's alma matter.

Pitcher – Michael Palazzone, Georgia – Lanky projectable build with best curveball in '08 high school class. Also features a 92-94 MPH fastball.

Pitcher – Mark Pope, Georgia Tech – Will break in as G-Tech's closer, but he's too good to remain in the bullpen for his entire college career.

Second Team

Catcher – Ben McMahon, Florida – Will start immediately for the Gators and contribute both on offensive and defense.

First Base – Ricky Oropesa, Southern California – USC's lone marquee freshman should be a fixture in the middle of the lineup right out of the gate.

Second Base – Riccio Torres, Arizona State – Joins older brother Raoul in the Sun Devils' infield. Already has enough plate discipline to be an effective lead-off hitter.

Shortstop – Brandon Loy, Texas – He leveraged an excellent fall into a starting assignment in the spring. A defensive whiz.

Third Base – Shane Kroker, Wake Forest – A defensive standout who could probably start at shortstop for most teams. However, questions about his bat remain.

Outfield – Cory Farris, Kentucky – This former All-Kentucky running back showcased his exceptional strength with mammoth home runs in fall ball.

Outfield – Bryan Haar, San Diego – Uber-athletic middle-of-the-field player who enjoyed a banner summer in Alaska.

Outfield – Austin Stadler, Wake Forest – Had an eye-opening fall, hitting .396. Should also see time on the mound, where he led the Deacons in scrimmages with 21 strikeouts.

Designated Hitter – Zack Wilson, Arizona State – Will see action all over the diamond in '09. Hits the ball with authority to all fields.

Pitcher – Daniel Marrs, Wake Forest – Improved conditioning has allowed him to tighten up his body and improve his endurance. Should see action as a weekend starter.

Pitcher – Nick Maronde, Florida – Excellent mound presence and moxie are overshadowed by three quality pitches, including a low 90's fastball with tailing action.

Pitcher – Brett Mooneyham, Stanford – Will compete for a spot in the Cardinal's weekend rotation. His father, Bill, pitched in the majors with Oakland.

Pitcher – Brian Busick, Stanford – A pro body with four above average pitches. A near lock to be a weekend starter in 2010. Will serve in the bullpen until then.

Pitcher – Anthony Fazio, Rice – He'll compete with fellow freshman Taylor Wall for the Sunday starter role. The loser will start mid-week.

College Baseball Second Team Preseason All-Americans

2009-02-04T09:22:00.000-08:00

We continue our college preview by presenting our Preseason Second Team All-Americans. As was the case with the First Team, all players selected for this squad are done so based on their performance as well as their pro potential.

Catcher

Micah Gibbs, Sophomore, Louisiana State – A cerebral catcher in the Jason Varitek mold. Also is a switch-hitter, like Varitek, with pop from both sides of the plate. His compact body allows him to effectively block pitches in the dirt. Has the strong arm and quick release necessary to stop any running game.

First Base

Hunter Morris, Sophomore, Auburn – The most imposing power hitter in the sophomore class. Makes surprising contact for the style of hitter he is and has showed the ability to work a walk. An average first baseman with soft hands but substandard footwork and range.

Second Base

Kyle Seager, Junior, North Carolina – An excellent pure hitter who makes plenty of contact with hard backspin. His swing rarely gets long due to his simple, mechanically sound approach. A former shortstop, he has more than enough arm for second and is adept at turning the double play.

Shortstop

Rick Hague, Sophomore, Rice – A physical shortstop in the same mold as Green. He centers the ball well and has good loft in his swing. Is sure-handed with plenty of range and a cannon arm. Missed summer ball due to shoulder surgery, but should be ready to go by spring.

Third Base

Chris Dominguez, Red Shirt Junior, Louisville – By far the most power of any collegiate. First player on the Cape to hit three homers in one game since Frank Thomas in 1988. A solid fielder but will probably outgrow third base. Returned to school after being selected in the 5th round by the Rockies.

Outfield

Brett Jackson, Junior, California (Berkeley) – Perhaps the best raw athlete on either team, he was a standout football player in high school. Started to put it all together last summer on the Cape, where he flashed an intimidating power/speed combo. Should be able to stay in center field as a pro.

Brett Eibner, Sophomore, Arkansas – Earned more accolades as a pitcher in high school but has tremendous upside as a hitter. Though still somewhat raw, he's showed good power to all fields as well as the ability to hit for average. His speed/arm combo enables him to play anywhere in the outfield.

Matt den Dekker, Junior, Florida – A dynamic all-around player. A line drive machine who's developed more punch as he's filled out. Has had difficulty hitting with wood, however. Has blazing speed in addition to being an intelligent base runner. A true center fielder with an adequate arm.

Designated Hitter

Marc Krauss, Junior, Ohio – The second-best pure hitter in the college ranks after Ackley, but lacks Ackley's athleticism. Stung the ball the entire summer on the Cape and was especially proficient going the other way. Has an average arm, but poor speed could result in a move to first base.

Starting Pitchers

Kyle Blair, Sophomore, San Diego – Should battle Harvey as the best collegiate pitcher in 2010. Reminds many scouts of Kevin Brown due to his build and terrific command of a mid 90's power sinker and vicious slider. Sat out most of last summer because of a heavy spring workload.

Brandon Workman, Sophomore, Texas – Was unhittable at times on the Cape last summer, mixing a boring 93-95 mph fastball with an above average slider and developing changeup. His large, sturdy build should enable him to become a front-of-the-rotation horse at the next level.

Chance Ruffin, Sophomore, Texas – The son of 12-year major league veteran Bruce Ruffin, he has the moxie and poise you'd expect from someone with such a pedigree. He also has first-rate stuff, including a fastball he can dial into the mid-90's, a hammer curve and serviceable changeup.

Mike Minor, Junior, Vanderbilt – Compares favorably to former Commodore Jeremy Sowers. Throws the kitchen sink at hitters -- a 88-91 mph fastball, spike curveball, slider and circle changeup. Not an intimidating mound presence, but should evolve into a reliable #3 in pro ball.

Barret Loux, Sophomore, Texas A&M – A big, flamethrowing Texan in the same mold as Workman, He uses an electric mid-90's fastball to set up his power curve and above average changeup. A well-conditioned athlete who maintains his velocity well into the late innings.

Reliever

Jason Stoffel, Junior, Arizona – Strong, compact build with especially thick legs. Throws a low 90's fastball with good movement as well as a power curve. Perfect closer mentality -- never gets rattled and has a short memory. Threw a plus changeup in high school but hasn't needed it in college.

College Baseball Preseason First Team All-Americans

2009-02-03T06:32:00.000-08:00

In today’s column we continue to prepare for the upcoming college season by presenting our Preseason First Team All-Americans. Just one note, however. The players selected for this team are done so based on their performance as well as their pro potential. This is especially important for position players, who will have to make the transition from aluminum bats to wood once their collegiate days are over. As a result, preferential treatment is admittedly given to hitters who have enjoyed success swinging wood bats in summer league play.

Catcher

Ryan Ortiz, Junior, Oregon State – An offense-first catcher who has made significant strides defensively. Extremely quick to the ball. Has also added power as he's filled out. His quick release compensates for a fringe average arm. Needs more work blocking pitches in the dirt.

First Base

Ben Paulsen, Junior, Clemson – Generates terrific power with a balanced left-handed stroke. Unlike most home run hitters, he has almost no uppercut. His swing does get long at times, however, which leaves him susceptible to high, hard stuff. A slick fielder with exceptionally soft hands.

Second Base

Robbie Shields, Junior, Florida Southern – Don't let the Division II school fool you. He derives outstanding bat speed from strong wrists and forearms, which results in power to all fields. Currently a shortstop, but his lack of range will likely force a move to second. His bat also projects at the hot corner.

Shortstop

Grant Green, Junior, Southern California – A new generation, five-tool shortstop in the mold of Troy Tulowitzki. Gets good extension on his swing with the ability to hit for both average and power. Sure-handed in the field with a cannon arm. Should be a top five pick in June.

Third Base

Derek Dietrich, Sophomore, Georgia Tech – A strong left-handed hitter in the Robin Ventura mold. Has undeniable power but is also adept at shortening his stroke with two strikes. He might outgrow shortstop, but his arm plays anywhere on the diamond. A probable first round pick in 2010.

Outfield

Dustin Ackley, Junior, North Carolina – A hitting machine who sprays line drives all over the field with a short, crisp swing. Boasts great speed. Should be ready to man center field in '09 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery last summer. The second-highest ranked position player after Green.

Kentrail Davis, Sophomore, Tennessee – Draft eligible sophomore has a potent left-handed bat capable of scorching line drives to all fields. Runs very well despite stocky build, though he's expected to slow considerably once he reaches his late 20's. A poor fielder whose weak arm limits him to left field.

A.J. Pollack, Junior, Notre Dame – Despite two solid seasons in South Bend, he didn't gain notoriety until he hit .377 on the Cape in '08 while flashing an impressive mix of power and speed. A solid center fielder who could enhance his value by moving to second base in the pros.

Designated Hitter

Blake Smith, Junior, California (Berkeley) – An interesting two-way player. At the plate he reminds scouts of Ryan Klesko with his light-tower power. On the mound he hits 93 mph on the gun and also features a sharp curveball. He currently profiles best as a rifle-armed, power-hitting right fielder.

Starting Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg, Junior, San Diego State – The most complete college pitching prospect since Mark Prior in '01. Throws a fastball which reaches the high 90's, a hammer curve and solid changeup, all with extraordinary command. Has a large, durable frame and sound mechanics.

Alex White, Junior, North Carolina – Another premier pitching prospect. Repertoire features a fastball in the mid 90's and a wicked slider, though he must work on his command and fine tune his changeup. Accomplished athlete with the stamina necessary to maintain his velocity deep into games.

Kyle Gibson, Junior, Missouri – The latest stud in a long line of Missouri aces. Already hits the low 90's with his fastball and should add a few more ticks once he fills out. Also throws the best slider in the college ranks. However, he still needs to tighten his motion and refine his mechanics.

Andrew Oliver, Junior, Oklahoma State – Eligibility is in doubt due to alleged relationship with a pro agent. Still, his talent is evident every time he takes the mound. Throws a heavy 92-93 mph two-seamer as well as a cutter. Curveball and changeup also show promise. Pinpoint control.

Matt Harvey, Sophomore, North Carolina – Likely the #1 ranked pitcher in 2010. Throws a lively 92-94 mph fastball with late, darting life, in addition to a first-rate curve and changeup. Excellent mound presence. His lanky build and easy arm action leave plenty of room for projection.

Relief Pitcher

Kendal Volz, Junior, Baylor – Had far more success coming out of the bullpen for Team USA than as a starter for Baylor. Throws mid 90's heat with a power curveball. His lack of a changeup and intimidating mound presence could translate into a closer role in pro ball.

The College Baseball Preseason Top 40

2009-02-02T09:40:00.000-08:00

With the college baseball season set to kick of later this month (Opening Day is Friday, February 20th across the country), now is an ideal time to switch gears and talk some ping. We’ll dedicate this week’s columns to previewing the 2009 college season. Here’s the lineup:

Today we’ll give our Preseason Top 40.

Tomorrow we’ll provide our Preseason First Team All-Americans.

Wednesday our Preseason Second Team All-Americans will be available.

Thursday we’ll uncover the Freshman All-Americans.

Finally, Friday we’ll cover the Top Thirty Recruits for 2010.

So, without further ado, here’s your Preseason Top 40 for 2009:

1) North Carolina -- No school has a 1-2 starting pitching tandem as intimidating as Alex White and Matt Harvey.

2) Louisiana State -- They have college baseball's most toxic lineup with a perfect mix of speed, power and high average hitters.

3) Rice – Will Rick Hague be next year's Grant Green?

4) Texas – Chance Ruffin, Brandon Workman, Cole Green, Cameron Rupp & Kevin Keyes give the 'Horns the best sophomore class in the nation.

5) Texas A&M – Barret Loux, Alex Wilson, Brooks Raley and Clayton Ehlert represent the deepest starting pitching quartet in the country.

6) Stanford – Brent Milleville, Joey August and Jeff Whitlow will add senior experience to an otherwise underwhelming lineup.

7) Clemson – Once again, Coach Leggett fields the deepest team in the ACC.

8) San Diego – The million dollar question -- Will Kyle Blair be able to replace Brian Matusz at the top of USD's vaunted rotation?

9) Georgia Tech – Coach Hall's decision to insert freshman Mark Pope into the closer's role speaks volumes as to the sorry state of the Yellow Jackets' bullpen.

10) Missouri – Max Scherzer, Aaron Crow………Kyle Gibson. Mizzou is developing quite a pitching legacy.

11) Cal State Fullerton – Gary Brown, Christian Colon and Josh Fellhauer are all locks to steal 20 bases in '09.

12) Oklahoma State – Much of their success will hinge on whether stud southpaw Andy Oliver is deemed eligible by the NCAA.

13) Baylor – This is the last chance for Kendal Volz, Aaron Miller and Dustin Dickerson to justify all the hype that surrounded them as incoming freshman.

14) Georgia – Growing pains? On any one day there might be as many as four freshman starting for Coach Perno.

15) Miami (FL) – The loss of Erik Erickson to arm surgery could have a devastating effect on the Hurricanes' pitching staff.

16) Arkansas – Brett Eibner is the best prospect no one's ever heard of.

17) Arizona State – Will this year's freshman crop be as good as the one from '06? It better be because the Sun Devils' fortunes depend on it.

18) Mississippi – After Arizona State's Carlos Ramirez, David Phillips will be the JuCo transfer to make the biggest impact in '09.

19) Florida State – Unlike highly-ranked FSU squads of the past, this year's version has no surefire early round picks.

20) Kentucky – The Wild Cats will get as far as the freshman trio of Alex Meyer, Andy Burns and Cory Farris take them.

21) Louisville – 6'4" 240 lbs man-child Chris Dominguez gives new meaning to the moniker "Louisville Slugger."

22) UCLA – Gerrit Cole is our early favorite for Freshman of the Year.

23) UC Irvine – Talk about underwhelming on paper -- we'd be shocked if ONE player from this team advances past Double A in pro ball.

24) California (Berkeley) -- If Brett Jackson puts it all together he could emerge as the Pac-10's most dynamic player.

25) Florida – There's always next year. The Gators are the unanimous choice for the strongest 2010 recruiting class. However, that may change on draft day.

26) Oklahoma – As good as the Sooners are, they're only the consensus sixth-best team in the Big 12.

27) Fresno State – On paper, the Bulldogs look merely pedestrian. Then again, last year this time people were saying the exact same thing about the defending champs.

28) Southern California – He's still only 19, yet we've seemingly been waiting forever for junior Robert Stock to bust out.

29) Pepperdine – Seeing how newcomer Brian Humphries develops will be one of this year's most interesting storylines. He has a chance to be a five-tool superstar.

30) Coastal Carolina – If Scott Woodward hangs around for all four years he's almost a sure bet to swipe 200 bags.

31) Tulane – The Green Wave will battle East Carolina all season for the C-USA's second slot behind perennial powerhouse Rice.

32) Michigan – Chris Fetter is faced with the daunting task of replacing departed staff ace Zach Putnam.

33) East Carolina – Say all you want about Rice and its dominance, but sophomore Seth Maness could easily emerge as the C-USA'a top pitcher in 2009.

34) Alabama – Brandon May, Ross Wilson, Josh Rutledge and Jake Smith comprise college baseball's most talented all-around infield.

35) Nebraska – With six teams ranked in front of them in the Big 12, the Cornhuskers would have to put together a dream season to make it to the 64-team dance.

36) Auburn – Watching Kevin Patterson and Hunter Morris hit is in itself worth the price of admission.

37) Wichita State – The fact that Wichita State is ranked first in the MVC after losing its six best players speaks to the weakness of the MVC more than anything else.

38) South Carolina – Huge shoes to fill…..Justin Smoak, Phil Disher, Reese Havens and James Darnell took 79 home runs and 267 RBI with them to the pros.

39) Virginia – The Cavaliers have a solid core of underclassmen, but replacing David Adams, Greg Miclat, Jeremy Farrell and Jacob Thompson is a lot to

40) Oregon State -- If their pitching performs up to expectations, the Beavers could easily shock people and wind up in Omaha for the third time in four years.

The Yankees and Royals: Birds of a Feather?

2009-01-27T16:59:00.000-08:00

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals should NEVER be mentioned in the same column, let alone the same sentence or headline. The Yankees are baseball’s consummate high rent tenant, perennially fielding the sport’s best paid team while playing in America’s largest city and media capital. Oh, and they’re pretty good too, having made the playoffs in 13 of the last 14 seasons. The Royals, on the other hand, play in one of baseball’s smallest markets, continually have one of the game’s lowest payrolls and have finished over .500 just ONCE during those same 14 seasons.

Their differences aside, the Yankees and Royals actually shared the back page this morning when both teams made superb personnel decisions. New York signed veteran lefty Andy Pettitte to a bargain basement one–year contract worth $5.5 million plus incentives, while Kansas City inked young ace Zack Greinke to a four-year deal worth $38 million.

To state each of the reasons why the Pettitte move was a good one for the Yankees would be an academic exercise at this point as every media outlet from ESPN to ranyontheroyals.com has dedicated valuable time and effort to that very task. However, the one benefit of the deal we feel obliged to discuss is the tremendous amount of flexibility it gives Yankees skipper Joe Girardi.

In Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, Girardi has at his disposal two young, ultra-talented right-handers. Yet both have serious questions as the 2009 season approaches. After bouncing from the bullpen to the starting rotation in ’08, Chamberlain’s assignment for this season is still somewhat murky, as is the general consensus regarding his durability as a starter.

Hughes endured a horrid ’08 campaign after logging only a handful innings in Triple A, and many in the game feel strongly that he needs more minor league seasoning before giving the big leagues another shot.

The re-signing of Pettitte allows New York greater latitude in dealing with Chamberlain and Hughes. Rather than having to once again force feed Hughes, the Yankees now have the luxury of giving Hughes all the time he needs in AAA. However, should the 22-year-old be lights out this spring and prove that he’s ready for primetime, Chamberlain can shift to the bullpen (where many analysts, including this writer, feel he belongs anyway), where he can serve as a caddy for Mariano Rivera. Rivera, it should be noted, turns 40 later this year and is recovering from shoulder surgery.

As an aside, we feel Pettitte will have a strong year. Not only will he be supported by a better defense and lineup, as well as have the incentive of earning an additional $6.5 million in assorted roster/performance bonuses, but he’ll also be pitching for a shot at the Hall of Fame. With 215 career victories, a 15+ win season would probably convince the native Texan, still just 36, to stick around in 2010. And if he gets into the 240-250 wins range, his sterling 18-7 postseason record, would help him considerably.

Halfway across this great country of ours, the Royals’ signing of Greinke was received with pure glee. And with good reason, as GM Dayton Moore hasn’t exactly impressed anyone with the moves he’s made this winter. With new arrivals Willie Bloomquist, CoCo Crisp and Mike Jacobs joining Jose Guillen and Miguel Olivo in K.C.’s starting lineup, Moore will be paying over $24 million this year to five guys with career OBPs of .331 and under.

And then there’s Kyle Farnsworth, who was rewarded for his 1.53 WHIP last year with a two-year deal guaranteeing him almost $10 million.

But, alas, Moore finally got one right by locking up Greinke through his first two years of free agency. Greinke had a breakthrough 2008, finishing in the top ten in the A.L. in ERA, total strikeouts, strikeouts per nine innings and strikeouts-to-walks, and at 25 is poised to emerge as one of the Junior Circuit’s top pitchers.

The new contract will pay Greinke $3.75 million this year, $7.25 million in 2010 and $13.5 million in 2011 and 2012. Assuming Greinke remains healthy (not an unreasonable assumption since he’s never missed time due to arm trouble), he would be a very sound investment for Moore and the Royals.

To illustrate this point we’ve used the table below to compare Greinke’s metrics with other right-handers of the same body type (i.e. between six-feet and Greinke’s six-foot-three) and pitching style who earned more than $10 million in 2008. In the spirit of conservatism we’ve assumed that Greinke at 27 and 28, his prime years when he’ll be earning $13.5 million, will perform exactly as he did as a 24-year-old in ’08 and not experience the statistical spike most power pitchers do when they reach their late twenties.

Player Salary Innings ERA WHIP K/BB

Greinke $13.5mm 202.3 3.47 1.28 3.27

Oswalt $13.0mm 208.7 3.54 1.18 3.51
Hudson $13.0mm 142.0 3.33 1.16 2.13
Vazquez $11.5mm 208.3 4.67 1.32 3.28
Sheets $11.0mm 198.3 3.09 1.15 3.36

After examining the evidence provided, it’s clear that even with the conservative estimate of his future performance, Greinke is easily on a par with his contemporaries earning eight figures per season. Now throw in the fact that salaries will escalate between 2008 and 2011-12 (when Greinke is due his $13.5 million per annum) and it becomes obvious that the Royals got themselves one heck of a deal.

And for that they have the privilege of sharing the headlines with the vaunted Yankees.

At least for a day.

Trade Fair: All’s Wells for Yankees

2009-01-21T10:33:00.000-08:00

The Yankees, by most accounts, had a tremendous offseason. After finishing out of the money for the first time since Bill Clinton’s first summer in office, the organization went on a $423 million spending spree which netted Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. In addition, GM Brian Cashman traded for power hitter Nick Swisher.

Despite all the fun Cashman has had playing with the Steinbrenners’ money, his job is not finished. The Yankees still have several holes, the largest of which is in the middle of their outfield. In fact, if Spring Training started tomorrow, manager Joe Girardi would be faced with the daunting task of determining who from the motley crew of Brett Gardner, Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera will patrol center field.

Frankly put, none of the three has any business logging significant time in center for a contending team. Gardner’s a gifted fielder who can fly, but he was overmatched in 127 big league at bats last year to the tune of .228/.283/.299.

Damon can still hit, as evidenced by his .303/.375/.461 effort in 2008, but chronic leg and ankle problems make his durability a big question mark. Plus, his popgun arm makes him a natural fit in left field.

Cabrera regressed significantly at the plate in ’08 and most scouts agree that his ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder.

As a result, the Yankees’ lack of a viable center fielder combined with the Blue Jays’ dubious financial situation (discussed below) paves the way for an intriguing intra-divisional blockbuster in which New York sends outfielder Xavier Nady, young starter Ian Kennedy and prospect Austin Jackson north of the border in exchange for center fielder Vernon Wells.

Let’s first dissect how this trade impacts the Yankees. In Wells, 30, Cashman has the opportunity to acquire one of baseball’s best all-round center fielders still in his prime. He’s a three-time Gold Glove winner, whose excellent instincts and cannon arm compensate for average speed.

Wells’ superb defense notwithstanding, it’s on offense where the Yankees would really reap the benefits of adding the two-time All-Star to the mix. While the addition of Teixeira will certainly instill fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers, that alone won’t completely offset the loss of free agents Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu – two sluggers who have career OPS’ in excess of .900.

While Wells is not an on-base machine in the mold of a Giambi or Abreu, he’s a legitimate 30 homer threat (he’s hit 28 or more home runs in three separate seasons) who can hit for a high average while making consistent contact. He’d represent a huge upgrade over either Gardner or Cabrera and would be a perfect fit to hit in the five-hole behind Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.

Wells’ contract also works for the Yankees. Although he’s owed $117 million through 2014, he’s due to earn “only” $10 million in 2009. Assuming Nady makes $6 million next season (he’s arbitration eligible for the last time in ’09), adding the incremental $4 million to the payroll would still enable Cashman to meet his goal of having an ‘09 payroll lower than last season’s.

Wells’ salary does rise dramatically over $20 million in 2010 and beyond, but it’s important to note that Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon and their combined ‘09 pay of $26 million, all are eligible to come off the books after next season.

Earlier we alluded to the perilous financial straits the Blue Jays could find themselves in going forward. This is true for two reasons. First, the Canadian dollar has depreciated by over 20% against the greenback (a troubling development for Toronto since the ball club derives a majority of its revenue in the local currency). Second, team owner Ted Rogers passed away in December, creating a power vacuum at the top and much speculation that the team will be sold.

Given the economic plight the Jays might eventually find themselves in, trading Wells and the $117 million he’s owed is not out of the question. However, this trade is about more than simple dollars and cents as Nady, Kennedy and Jackson are all capable of making significant contributions.

Nady is coming off an impressive .305/.357/.510 campaign and entering his walk year. And if history is any indication, he should be primed for another big season and therefore able to easily match Wells’ .839 OPS from a year ago. Nady would slide comfortably into right field and enable Alexis Rios to move to center, his natural position.

By acquiring Kennedy, the Blue Jays would be adding to an already-impressive stable of young arms, which includes the likes of Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Brett Cecil, and David Purcey. This is not insignificant given the fact that EVERY other team in the A.L. East – even the Orioles -- boasts a plethora of young, power pitching.

This trade would not just benefit Toronto in the long run, however. With the recent defection of A.J. Burnett (to the Yankees, no less) and injuries to Marcum and McGowan, the addition of Kennedy would provide the Jays with much needed pitching depth for 2009. Also, it’s important to note that Kennedy isn’t arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season.

Though Kennedy’s ’08 could be considered a lost year (0-4, 8.17), let’s not forget that he just turned 25 and his career WHIP and K:BB ratio in the minors are a world class 0.97 and 3.5:1, respectively. Perhaps all the laid back Californian needs to kick start his career is an escape from the New York pressure cooker.

Jackson, the final piece of the Jays’ haul, has a skill set that is eerily reminiscent of Wells’ about a decade ago. Like Wells, his ability to take excellent routes to the ball and strong arm make up for speed that’s maybe a tick above average. While his home run power hasn’t yet manifested itself, his bat speed and crisp stroke suggest that he should be good for at least 20 dingers a year once he fills out and adds strength. All in all, Jackson would be an ideal long-term replacement for Wells and fit perfectly between Rios and Travis Snider in Toronto’s outfield of the future.

No Teixeira? No Problem! Epstein has BoSox Ready to Roll in '09

2009-01-16T06:19:00.000-08:00

Through the first half of January, Theo Epstein has demonstrated once again why he belongs in the top tier of baseball’s general managers. Thwarted by the Yankees in his attempt sign free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira, the Red Sox’ wunderkind was left with two choices.

First, Epstein could have tried to sign a high-priced substitute, like slugger Adam Dunn, in the hopes of recouping as much of Teixeira’s production as possible.

Or he could have ignored the high-rent district altogether and instead set his sights on established players coming back from injuries willing to sign short-term, incentive-laden contracts.

Epstein wisely chose the latter option.

For just $10.7 million in total 2009 base salaries, Epstein inked starters Brad Penny and John Smoltz, reliever Takashi Saito, catcher Josh Bard and outfielders Rocco Baldelli and Mark Kotsay. All are proven major leaguers, who have combined for a total of 8,466 at bats, 5,045 innings pitched, and, most importantly, 11 All-Star Game appearances.

Each of the six contracts signed represents pure upside for Boston. Not only do the corresponding base salaries barely add up to half the $20 million Teixeira will earn in 2009, but each also has a tenor of only one year (though Saito and Bard’s deals carry club options) and will therefore provide Boston with vital financial flexibility should any of the new arrivals succumb to injuries or poor performance.

However, should Smoltz & Co. fulfill or even exceed expectations, the incremental cost of all aggregate roster/performance bonuses is $22 million – a mere pittance given the Red Sox’ planned payroll of $140 million. And looking at each player’s ability and past performance, it’s easy to see how this monetary sum represents just a fraction of the potential on-field return for the Red Sox.

Imagine the tremendous boost the team would receive should Smoltz deliver 130 quality innings and Saito was able to flash his trademark 97 mph fastball and tight slider in the late innings of 60 games.

And think of the impact a healthy and effective Penny would have, gobbling up innings at the tail end of manager Terry Francona’s rotation.

And picture Baldelli spelling youngster Jacoby Ellsbury in center field or J.D. Drew in right against lefties, against whom he’s posted a robust .841 OPS in 508 career at bats.

Even if the six newest Red Sox provide just moderate returns in the middle rung of most fans’ expectations scale, they’d still serve three vital purposes.

First, they’d provide sufficient depth to allow Epstein to dangle other players as trade bait. For example, if the vintage Penny reports to camp in February, perhaps Epstein would have enough confidence in the depth of his pitching staff to address the team’s long-term catching situation by trading prospect Michael Bowden in exchange for either Texas’ Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Arizona’s Miguel Montero.

Second, the presence of guys like Kotsay, Smoltz, Penny and Baldelli will prevent Boston from rushing its top prospects. Now Clay Buchholz can have as much time as he needs in Pawtucket to hone his fastball command, while first baseman Lars Anderson and outfielder Josh Reddick will have the luxury of learning to hit lefties in Portland instead of at Fenway in the heat of a pennant race.

Finally, all six players will provide insurance against injuries. What if four-time All-Star Mike Lowell takes longer than anticipated to return from offseason hip surgery? Not a problem. Kevin Youkilis could simply move across the diamond to third base, while Francona could plug Kotsay in at first, where he excelled in the playoffs last year.

True, losing out to the Yankees in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes was a hard pill for Red Sox Nation to swallow. But Theo Epstein’s decision to sign half a dozen veteran free agents at discount prices could result in a far greater return, including yet another trip to the postseason.

How Lowe can you go: Braves Overpay for Starter

2009-01-13T11:50:00.000-08:00

The Atlanta Braves, already in the midst of an underachieving offseason, are on the verge of significantly overpaying for Derek Lowe. Make no mistake, Lowe is an excellent pitcher who has enjoyed considerable success in seven years as a starter; however, he’s not worth the four-year/$60 million contract he’s about to sign.

We’ve already implied how much we like Lowe. In fact, in this very column we argued strongly that the lanky right-hander would be a perfect fit for the Red Sox (a better fit, in fact, than slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira). But what works for the Red Sox obviously doesn’t work for the Braves. With studs Josh Beckett and Jon Lester fronting Boston’s starting five, Lowe would have slid very comfortably into the middle of the Red Sox’ rotation, where his durability and groundball-inducing sinker would have made him an ideal #3 starter on a championship caliber team.

The Braves, on the other hand, are asking Lowe to be their ace. And given the type of pitcher the lanky right-hander is, that just won’t work. A proven workhorse who has not missed a single start over the last seven seasons, Lowe is perfectly capable of posting quality start after quality start over the long haul of a 162-game season. However, what he is not capable of doing is outdueling Cole Hamels or Johan Santana in the heat of a pennant race. And that’s exactly the elixir Atlanta needed this offseason.

The Braves began the offseason by almost acquiring Jake Peavy from the Padres. Peavy, still only 27, is just the pitcher who could have stuck a dagger in the Phillies’ or Mets’ hearts come August or September. He has averaged a strikeout per inning during his career, posted an ERA under 3.00 in four of the last five seasons and won the CY Young in 2007. Plus, at $56 million over the next four years (not counting the $22 million club option for 2013), he represents a fixed cost well within the Braves’ budget. However, negotiations collapsed in the 11th hour and Peavy remains a Padre.

The Braves were also close to inking A.J. Burnett to a long-term deal. When healthy, Burnett might even have better stuff than Peavy. He also would have been aided by a move to the weaker National League. But the Yankees’ $82.5 million offer was too much for the 32-year-old righty to pass up and he’ll be donning Pinstripes for the next five years.

Along the way, GM Frank Wren traded for Javier Vazquez and signed Japanese free agent Kenshin Kawakami. Both pitchers’ m.o. is similar to that of Lowe – innings eaters who will provide quality innings, but will never be mistaken for the ace of a staff.

So with Spring Training just five weeks away, Wren found himself in a quandary. With the acquisitions of Vazquez and Kawakami, he had committed nearly $20 million to the Braves ’09 payroll, yet still had no ace. And with Peavy and Burnett off the table, his options were dwindling. Thus, Wren panicked and gave Lowe and his agent, Scott Boras, whatever they wanted, which appears to be a king’s ransom.

But the question remains. Could Wren have done anything differently?

The answer is a resounding yes.

He had two options. The first we discussed in this column on December 31st and would have entailed acquiring Zack Greinke from the Royals. It would have likely cost the Braves standout shortstop Yunel Escobar, but Escobar is replaceable and in Greinke Atlanta would have obtained a young ace still two years away from free agency.

The other option would have been far more controversial but carried with it more potential upside – signing free agent Ben Sheets to an incentive-laden one-year deal.

When healthy, Sheets’ stuff is right up there with Peavy and Burnett’s. However, staying off the disabled list has been a monumental task for Sheets since 2004. He was actually well on his way in ’08 until he tore a muscle in his forearm and had to miss some time in September as well as the postseason. The seriousness of the injury has been a point of contention around baseball.

Sheets’ agent, Casey Close, claims his client should be 100% recovered by Spring Training and has been willing to share Sheets’ medical reports with potential suitors. Various executives, however, have their doubts and cite Sheets’ lengthy injury history as reason enough to steer clear of a long-term deal (Sheets has missed 32 starts – the equivalent of one full season – since 2005).

The Braves should have taken advantage of this stalemate by offering Sheets a one-year/$8 million deal with another $8 million in innings-based incentives, as well as a $16 million option for 2010 that would have vested after 200 innings. This would have made sense for both sides. If Sheets pulled up lame, he’d be off the Braves books in a year. But a healthy Sheets would have surely propelled the Braves into contention, because when he pitches the fireballer is lights out. In fact, Sheets’ lifetime 1.20 WHIP is nearly identical to Peavy’s 1.19 mark and is better than Lowe’s (1.27) and Burnett’s (1.28).

This contract would have been a no-brainer for Sheets as well. With no other serious pursuers, Sheets would have had the opportunity to earn up to $16 million in 2009 and 2010 and re-enter the free agent market in the winter of 2010-11 while still just 32. Now, he’s left to try and find a job in the worst free agent market since collusion more than two decades ago.

And the Braves are left to fend for themselves without a bona fide ace in a division that has two of the game’s best in Hamels and Santana. It should be another disappointing summer in Dixie.

Ranking Baseball's 30 General Managers

2009-01-08T13:31:00.000-08:00

As the Hot Stove League continues to sizzle, let’s take a step back and evaluate the guys making all the key decisions this winter. We’ve placed each of the 30 current GMs in one of six categories based on recent job performance as well as past results. In the spirit of fairness, the jury’s still out on nine guys who’ve been GM for less than two full years – they simply have not had sufficient time to make a mark at their new positions. However, there are two notable exceptions: Andy MacPhail of the Orioles and Walt Jocketty of the Reds enjoyed so much success at prior jobs we were comfortable ranking them.

The Elite

1) Billy Beane, Oakland A’s – No GM has done more with less for so long. The standard bearer for other small market GMs. After a down 2007 and 2008 look for the A’s to rebound this year.

2) Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox – Boston’s immense payroll notwithstanding, he’s accumulated more hardware than anyone since 2003 (5 playoff appearances and two World Championships). Has enjoyed unbridled success going against the grain of sentimentality (see trades of Garciaparra, Nomar and Ramirez, Manny) while delivering on his promise to transform the organization into a “player development machine.”

3) Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers – Surprised? Don’t be. He led Texas to that organization’s only three postseason appearances then laid the groundwork for the Brewers’ first playoff game in 26 years. Last July’s trade for C.C. Sabathia was a master stroke. It won’t get any easier following the departures of Sabathia, Ben Sheets and all-world scouting director Jack Zduriencik.

Knocking on the Door

4) Kenny Williams, Chicago White Sox – Williams changes his spots more than a chameleon. He successfully added veterans prior to the ChiSox’ World Series run in 2005 then shortly thereafter started building for the long term by adding young talent in Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Carlos Quentin and Tyler Flowers. Regardless of the strategy, he just wins.

5) Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay Rays – Though Chuck Lamar’s regime deserves some credit for laying some of the groundwork, it’s Friedman who assembled the final – and most important – pieces for the Rays’ dramatic run in ’08. His trade for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett was especially brilliant, as was his signing of Pat Burrell at a deep discount. Don’t be shocked if Friedman’s machinations enable Tampa to hold off the resurgent Yankees in ’09.

6) David Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers – Despite a disastrous ’08, Dombrowski’s 20-year track record speaks for itself. He laid the foundation for the pre-strike juggernaut in Montreal then put together a World Series winner in Florida. And he had righted the ship in Detroit prior to last year’s debacle. But after a winter filled with under-the-radar transactions, the Tigers should be poised to contend again in ’09.

7) Walt Jocketty, Cincinnati Reds – Jocketty has been the Reds’ GM for under a year, however, his 13-year record with the Cardinals speaks for itself – six division titles, two National League Championships and one World Series Championship. He’s had a tough offseason thus far, but with most of the mid-tier free agents still unsigned we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Rock Solid

8) Andy MacPhail, Baltimore Orioles – He’s been with the Orioles for just 18 months but has already made his mark in player procurement/development. The organization has also refrained from the senseless trades and signings that had plagued it in the past. A first-rate GM while with Minnesota, as evidenced by World Championships in 1987 and 1991.

9) Mark Shapiro, Cleveland Indians – Had the unenviable task of taking over for John Hart after the Tribe’s revenue streams had maxed out earlier this decade. His Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips deal in 2002 ranks as one of the top ten trades of all time. Has done an excellent job repairing the Indians’ bullpen this winter, putting the club in a strong position to contend in ’09.

10) Kevin Towers, San Diego Padres – Has been GM since 1996 – the longest tenure in baseball – and guided the club to four postseason appearances, including the 1998 World Series. Very adept at salvaging useful relievers from the trash heap. Owner John Moores’ current divorce saga has left him hamstrung.

11) Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants – If this list were complied in 2005, when the Giants were in the midst of eight consecutive winning seasons with four playoff appearances interspersed among them, Sabean would have likely been in the top five. However, life without Barry Bonds isn’t easy. After four straight losing seasons, Sabean’s Giants might finally be ready to rebound with an excellent starting rotation and the farm system in the best shape it’s been in years.

12) Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers – If there was a “Most Improved” award he’d probably win it. He’s recovered nicely from trading away Alfonso Soriano, Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and John Danks. Josh Hamilton was a very fair return for Edinson Volquez, while the bumper crop of prospects Daniels received in the Mark Teixeira and Eric Gagne trades has left the farm system in excellent shape. The Rangers could very well become the Rays of 2010.

13) Josh Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks – He inherited a team already stacked with young talent. His decisions to grant Eric Byrnes (no relation) a pricy extension and practically give away Carlos Quention have been much maligned. However, Byrnes’ trade for Dan Haren significantly bolstered the club’s pitching.

14) Brian Cashman, New York Yankees – By far the toughest GM to evaluate. While the Steinbrenners’ deep pockets have masked his many expensive failures (Hideki Irabu, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, just to name just a few), the bottom line is that the Yankees have made it to the postseason in 10 of Cashman’s 11 years at the helm. Cashman should also be commended for his dexterity in dealing with the New York media and various factions within the Yankees’ universe.

Disappointing

15) Omar Minaya, New York Mets – While he has had some good free agent signings (Carlos Beltran sure looks like a bargain now) and made some astute trades (John Maine was a steal), Minaya should be held accountable for the Mets’ last two September swoons. Where was he last year after Billy Wagner went down and the Mets desperately needed bullpen help? With a new stadium generating consistent revenue streams in a mega market, Minaya has run out of excuses.

16) Jim Hendry, Chicago Cubs – Like Cashman, Hendry’s tenure is a tough one to evaluate. While the Cubs have won three division titles during his reign, they’ve also finished in the second division twice – despite an astronomical payroll. He’s made some great trades (Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez), but some clunkers as well (Dontrelle Willis). There’s no doubt that if Kerry Wood and Mark Prior had not missed so much time because of arm trouble Hendry would be much higher on this list.

17) Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers – Also a very mixed record. He’s blown tens of millions on signing has-beens like Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, and, of course, Andruw Jones; yet he was able to get the Red Sox to fully underwrite nearly half a season of Manny Ramirez and the Indians to do the same with Casey Blake en route to a division title in last season. And his hiring of Joe Torre offset the Grady Little debacle.

Looking over their shoulders

18) Dan O’Dowd, Colorado Rockies – Aside from the club’s miracle run in ’07, not much has gone right during his ten-year tenure. In fact, at one point the team had posted seven consecutive last place or second-to-last place finishes. The Danny Neagle and Mike Hampton free agent signings rank among the costliest blunders in baseball history.

19) J.P. Ricciardi, Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays have been stuck in neutral throughout his seven-year tenure, with each of his teams seemingly lacking a vital component. In 2008 the missing piece was offense. And with a middling farm system, the result of underwhelming drafts, the Jays will likely be mired in no man’s land for the foreseeable future.

20) Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals – Blame the Royals’ small market status all you want, but Moore simply hasn’t done a good job. Signing Gil Meche to a lucrative long-term deal has been a success, but Jose Guillen’s contract is turning into an albatross. Moore’s managerial hire, Trey Hillman, has also not worked out as the latter lost control of the clubhouse last season. One sliver of hope is the organization’s improving farm system.

21) Jim Bowden, Washington Nationals – He’s developed a strange fetish for outfielders who can’t make contact and underachieving first round picks. And his failure to reach a consensus with top pick Aaron Crow was a huge setback for an organization in desperate need of young mound talent.

Only Time Will Tell

-- Ruben Amaro Jr., Philadelphia Phillies – Huge shoes to fill! He replaces one of the best ever in Pat Gillick following the Phillies first World Championship in 28 years.

-- Michael Hill, Florida Marlins – Has already unloaded Mike Jacobs, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham and Kevin Gregg in his first offseason. Welcome to Miami, home of the cheapest owner in professional sports.

-- Neil Huntington, Pittsburgh Pirates – He’s got long road ahead of him, but at least he got last year’s draft right.

-- John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals – He must do more to revamp the Cardinals’ beleaguered pitching staff.

-- Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim –The big market Angels have been strangely quiet after losing Mark Teixeira. Watch this guy over the next month.

-- Bill Smith, Minnesota Twins – He tried to get cute and received a subpar return for Johan Santana. Let’s see if he’ll be able to keep Joe Maurer in the Twin Cities after 2010.

-- Ed Wade, Houston Astros – Ever since the Phillies, his former team, hoisted that World Series trophy he’s looked a lot smarter.

-- Frank Wren, Atlanta Braves – Yet another new GM who has the daunting task of replacing a legend (John Schuerholz). His ability to land an ace will go a long way to determining his ranking next year.

-- Jack Zduriencik, Seattle Mariners – Tremendous scouting mind could have as many as four picks within the top 34 selections in this June’s draft.

Rays Strike Gold with Burrell Signing

2009-01-05T21:11:00.000-08:00

The Tampa Bay Rays’ signing of Pat Burrell late yesterday is yet another example of the sound baseball decisions now being made in the annals of Tropicana Field. The inking of Burrell to a 2-year/$16 million deal was a master stroke by GM Andrew Friedman and his staff for the following reasons:

The Rays played the waiting game perfectly. As early as November Friedman & Co saw the downward pricing pressure the recession and glut of available corner outfielders would exert on the free agent market and decided let the market flush itself out. The end result was a downright bargain for a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat whose four-year OPS is a robust .890. By comparison, Raul Ibanez, the player who’s replacing Burrell in Philadelphia, received one extra year at an aggregate incremental cost of $14.5 million. Yet, Ibanez is four-and-a-half years older than Burrell and has a four-year OPS of just .830.

Speaking of deal length, the fact that Burrell’s contract has a tenor of two years is another coup for Tampa Bay. Because Burrell’s a player with classic “old man” skills (i.e. he hits for power and shows patience at the plate but is unathletic with slow-twitch actions), he probably will not age as gracefully as the typical 32-year-old major leaguer. Thus, by signing Burrell to a short-term deal, the Rays have in effect taken out an insurance policy against a washed up Burrell tying up a significant portion of their payroll for years to come.

Burrell is a well below replacement level fielder, who, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN, was removed for a late inning defensive replacement in 100 of the Phillies 154 games and was assigned a minus-20 defensive rating by the Fielding Bible. This, however, will be of no concern to the Rays, who plan on using Burrell exclusively at DH. In addition, the Rays hope that keeping Burrell off the field in 2009 will prevent a repeat last season when he faded down the stretch. Burrell’s second half line of .215/.313/.413 paled in comparison to his first half, when he hit .275/.404/.575.

By adding Burrell, the Rays have obtained a right-handed foil to slugger Carlos Pena. With Burrell protecting him in the lineup (as opposed to Cliff Floyd or Johnny Gomes), Pena should see a steadier diet of fastballs and likely enjoy a season which closely resembles his monstrous .282/.411/.627 effort in 2007.

Aside from possibly finding one more reliever to round out their bullpen, the Rays’ offseason shopping spree is complete. And to think, it cost them less than $20 million dollars – a mere $425 million less than the Yankees. Yet – call us crazy – the two teams will likely be separated by mere inches in 2009.

Trade Fair: The Braves Finally Land an Ace

2008-12-31T12:29:00.000-08:00

It’s almost New Year’s and the Atlanta Braves have been thwarted in numerous attempts to land Jake Peavy from the Padres and are left with a gaping hole in the front of their rotation. Well, that’s about to change – at least for the next five minutes – as we discuss how Braves GM Frank Wren could turn to former colleague Dayton Moore, now the Royals’ GM, and finally obtain the ace he has long coveted. The Royals, in turn, would be able to fill multiple holes of their own while freeing up salary. So, without further ado, we present the final mock trade of 2008:

The Braves trade right fielder Jeff Francoeur, shortstop Yunel Escobar, starter Jorge Campillo and minor league outfielder Gorkys Hernandez to the Royals in exchange for starter Zack Greinke and right fielder Jose Guillen.

Let’s start with the Royals. While some might find it odd that Moore would be willing to part with a 25-year-old ace, it’s important to note that Greinke has so far not been receptive to the team’s attempts to sign him long-term. That said, Moore realizes that with two years remaining until free agency Greinke’s trade value will never be higher.

The Royals would get quite a haul, highlighted by Escobar. Though Mike Aviles performed admirably last season, Escobar would represent a substantial upgrade at shortstop. He has a much stronger arm, softer hands and infinitely more range. He’s also no slouch at the plate, and at 26 he should eventually post an OPS in excess of .850 (his career mark is just shy of .800). Finally, Escobar would be an excellent fit for the small market Royals as he’s not arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season.

Though not nearly Greinke’s equal in terms of talent, Campillo would serve as an adequate and cheap replacement in the back of the Royals’ rotation. In his first full major league season in 2008, he showed the uncanny ability to change speeds and work all quadrants of the strike zone. The result was a very decent 1.24 WHIP and an ERA of 3.91, which was one-third of a run lower than the league average. Despite the fact that Campillo would be moving to the tougher league, he should still serve as a better than replacement level back-of-the-rotation starter.

Hernandez, 21, would be the Royals’ center fielder of the future, perhaps as soon as during the first half of 2010 (it’s worth mentioning that Coco Crisp’s contract calls for an $8 million club option in 2010). Though he didn’t post eye popping numbers in the pitcher friendly Carolina League last season, Hernandez generates plenty of line drives with his ultra-quick bat and should develop more power as he adds muscle to his 6’0” 175 lbs frame. He’s already a world class center fielder with blazing speed and a cannon arm.

With outfield prospects Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward also prominent in Atlanta’s future plans, the Braves’ front office has deemed Hernandez expendable in the right deal.

Including Guillen in the deal would mean addition by subtraction for Kansas City. Though his 20 home runs and ninety-seven RBI were easily tops on the club, Guillen wore out his welcome by feuding with skipper Trey Hillman for most of ’08. Moore has let it be known throughout the offseason that any club looking to acquire Greinke would have to take the malcontent Guillen as well.

Trading Guillen would save the Royals $12 million in both 2009 and 2010, thereby giving them plenty of financial latitude to pursue a veteran starter to insert in the #2 slot behind Gil Meche. Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, Oliver Perez and Ben Sheets are all intriguing names who would help soften the blow of losing Greinke.

Since the day he became Kansas City’s GM in 2006, Moore has been infatuated with the idea of obtaining Francoeur. This man-crush has continued despite Francoeur’s downward production spiral. Perhaps it’s because as Atlanta’s Director of Player Personnel, Moore had a birds-eye view of Francoeur’s vast talent and feels that at 25 the young Georgian still has plenty of time to turn around his career. At any rate, even if Francoeur’s offense doesn’t show marked improvement, he would in many ways still be an upgrade over Guillen. He boasts one of baseball’s best arms in right field, has a much better clubhouse disposition and, as someone who’s arbitration eligible for just the first time, would cost about $10 million less.

For the Braves this trade is all about Greinke. In Jair Jurrjens and new arrival Javier Vazquez, Atlanta has two pitchers capable of throwing 200+ quality innings. But, unfortunately, neither is an ace capable of matching up against the Phillies’ Cole Hamels or the Mets’ Johan Santana. Greinke, however, is.

Apparently over the psychological issues which derailed his 2006 campaign, Greinke enjoyed a coming out party last season by finishing in the A.L.’s top ten in ERA, strikeouts, strikeouts per 9 IP, and strikeouts-to-walks. His uncanny command of a mid-90’s heater, knee-buckling curveball and well above average changeup should all play up in the “lesser” of the two leagues, while his smooth motion and excellent mechanics should help prevent serious injury.

A free agent after the 2010 season, Greinke would give Atlanta a two-year window to compete; however, the fact that he hails from northern Florida could make it easier for the Braves to entice him with a long-term deal.

The Braves had about $40 million to play with this offseason, which would enable them to absorb Guillen’s weighty contract. Despite the 32-year-old’s reputation as a clubhouse cancer, he’d be a noticeable offensive upgrade over Francoeur, whose .653 OPS in 2008 was the worst mark posted by an everyday outfielder. He’s also one of the few outfielders in the game who boasts an arm which rivals Francoeur’s. Also, don’t discount the influence of Braves manager Bobby Cox, who has proven himself a master psychiatrist capable of extracting the most out of all his players – from chronic underachievers like J.D. Drew to fiery types in the Gary Sheffield mold.

Although the acquisition of Greinke would help level the playing field in the increasingly competitive N.L. East, it wouldn’t be a cure-all for Atlanta. Wren would still have to find a shortstop to replace Escobar (Jack Wilson?), a starter to back up rookie Tommy Hanson at the back-end of the Braves’ rotation and a left fielder. However, with approximately $15 million left in his pocket, Wren shouldn’t have a problem filling those holes – especially in baseball’s depressed economy.

Seeing Red in Cincinnati

2008-12-28T12:11:00.000-08:00

Reds fans should be irate if catcher Ramon Hernandez and center fielder Willy Taveras end up being the team’s marquee acquisitions this winter. With all due respect to GM Walt Jocketty, who won six division titles, two N.L. Championships and one World Series during a distinguished 13-year reign in St. Louis, Cincinnati has had one of the most disappointing offseasons in all of baseball. After being linked to talents like Pat Burrell, Jeremy Hermida and Jermaine Dye, they’ve had to settle for a beat up, overpriced, soon-to-be 33-year-old catcher in Ramon Hernandez, as well as a punch-and-judy-hitting speedster in Willy Taveras.

Let’s start with the ill-advised Taveras signing. Even if you include his injury-shortened 2007 season, in which he leveraged an aberrational .320 batting average at Coors Light to post career highs in OBP (.367) and SLG (.382), Taveras’ career OPS is a putrid .668 – a full 116 points below the league average of .784 from 2004-08. And this is supposed to be the Reds’ leadoff hitter during the next two seasons?

When examining or evaluating the Reds, it’s vital to realize that the stadium the team plays in, the Great American Ball Park, is one of the smallest in baseball. Therefore, the club doesn’t require a gazelle, like Taveras, to patrol center field and can easily sacrifice some defense by inserting either a power hitter or on-base machine there.

That said, Jocketty had multiple options at his disposal (dependent upon, of course, how much money he was willing to spend). For example, he could have gone big ticket and traded for White Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye then shifted young, power-hitting phenom Jay Bruce into center. Bruce isn’t a burner, but his above average speed and strong arm would make him at least adequate there.

Or Jocketty could have done his shopping in the bargain aisle by inking old friend Jim Edmonds. Though he’s lost several steps in the field and his bat speed isn’t what it once was, Edmonds proved last year with a .256/.369/.568 performance in 250 at bats with the Cubs that he’s far from through. And he’d likely sign for well under half the $8 million he earned in 2008.

If the Reds were to sign Edmonds, it would also have made sense for them to procure the services of Rocco Baldelli. By now, Baldelli’s muscular-related health issues, which prevent him from playing regularly in the field, are well known. However, he would only be expected to serve as a right-handed caddy to Edmonds (who hit just .161 with Chicago against southpaws last season) and would be compensated as such.

A solution to the Reds’ catching “woes” would have been even less complicated. Instead of paying $6 million in 2009 for Hernandez (the Orioles, Hernandez’ former team, are on the hook for $2 million), the club would have been better served by giving the keys to incumbent Ryan Hanigan and signing a seasoned, defense-first free agent, a la Matt Treanor or Chad Moeller, to serve as Hanigan’s backup.

Though Hanigan played just 31 games in the majors last season, he earned rave reviews for his handling of the Reds’ pitching staff and threw out nearly 35% of opposing runners attempting to steal. At the plate, he acquitted himself well by posting a .367 OBP. It’s important to note that Hanigan’s on-base skills are extraordinary for a catcher. In 176 games in Double A and Triple A in 2007-08, Hanigan posted a robust OBP of .389.

With Hanigan earning around the big league minimum and his backup less than $1 million (the Tigers, for example, are paying the recently-signed Treanor $750,000 in 2009), the Reds would have saved over $4.5 million had they not traded for Hernandez. The team then would have had that much more capital at its disposal in its ongoing search for a left fielder and more arms for the bullpen, which earlier this offseason lost the valuable Jeremy Affeldt via free agency to the Giants.

A Seismic Signing

2008-12-24T09:53:00.000-08:00

When the Yankees announced the signing of free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira Tuesday afternoon they didn’t just fill a massive hole in their lineup; they also sent shockwaves that will impact baseball from Los Angeles to Boston and many points in between. Let’s take a look at the eight teams affected most by yesterday’s signing:

Anaheim Angels – The Angels find themselves in an interesting predicament – they still have excellent run prevention, but other than injury-riddled Vladimir Guerrero the lineup lacks punch. Look for GM Tony Reagins to fortify the bullpen by signing free agent closer Brian Fuentes. Manny Ramirez would be a good fit, but Reagins quelled those rumors on Tuesday. Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn are possibilities, but does their all-or-nothing approach really fit with manager Mike Scioscia’s rabbit ball style?

Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles were kidding themselves if they thought they’d be able to out-market the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox for Teixeira’s services. With Adam Jones and Nick Markakis already established at the big league level and Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Matt Wieters almost there, look for Baltimore to kick the rebuilding into high gear with an eye on contending in 2010. That could mean standout second baseman Brian Roberts gets dangled as trade bait before then.

Boston Red Sox – With the sole object of GM Theo Epstein’s affection off the market, look for the Red Sox to make a serious run at Derek Lowe in an effort to deepen their starting rotation. While losing Teixeira to the hated Yankees stings, Boston is still in excellent shape with Kevin Youkilis at first base and former Gold Glove winner Mike Lowell at third.

Los Angeles Dodgers – With the Yankees seemingly out of the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes, the Dodgers are the only team at this point to have an ongoing dialogue with the slugger. Don’t be surprised if GM Ned Colletti smells blood and extends Manny a “modest” two-year proposal with a strict time table.

Milwaukee Brewers -- Because Teixeira's Elias rating is higher than those of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, the Angels now get the Yankees' first round draft pick, pushing the Brewers’ compensation pick from the first round to the second (at least 40 picks below where it would have been had the Yanks not signed Teixeira). This is no insignificant matter for a small market organization that has used the draft to its advantage in constructing a playoff-caliber team.

New York Mets – They just can’t win. Even after signing closer Francisco Rodriguez to a team-friendly contract and landing fireballing reliever J.J. Putz in a trade, the Metropolitans still can’t escape the Yankees’ shadow. And unless Tom Seaver, Mike Piazza and Darryl Strawberry suddenly discover the fountain of youth, that will likely always be the case.

Toronto Blue Jays – With a strong starting staff, shutdown bullpen and solid defense, Toronto would contend in just about any other division. However, in the dog-eat-dog world of the A.L. East they are no better than the fourth-best team. Combine that with owner Ted Rogers’ recent death and the ongoing depreciation of the Canadian dollar versus the greenback and you’ve got a possible rebuilding plan in the works.

Washington Nationals – Now that the Teixeira train has stopped in the Bronx, look for GM Jim Bowden to make a run at Dunn, a player he is intimately familiar with from his days in Cincinnati. Also, it’s not out of the realm of imagination to think that after being thwarted in their serious attempts to woo Tex back home, the Nationals might make a dramatic effort to land Ramirez.

Signing Furcal would have been Wrong Move for Wren

2008-12-18T05:56:00.000-08:00

Rafael Furcal’s 11th hour decision to spurn the Atlanta Braves in favor of the Los Angeles Dodgers might have been the best thing to happen to Braves GM Frank Wren this offseason. A year after wasting $8 million on a homecoming for washed up Tom Glavine, Wren was ready to award Furcal with a three-year/$30 million contract to return to Atlanta.

Make no mistake, Furcal was at one time a dynamic player, arguably the best all-round shortstop in the National League. From 2003-06 he slugged over .430 and averaged nearly 35 steals a season while playing highlight reel defense. However, he turns 32 next year and is coming off microdiscectomy surgery on his lower back. Granted it’s a small sample size, but Furcal wasn’t the same player after returning to the Dodgers lineup for the playoffs. In eight postseason games he hit just .258 and made a whopping four errors.

In addition to the possibility that they would have invested a fortune in damaged goods, there’s one other major factor that would have made this an ill-fated move for the Braves – the presence of incumbent shortstop Yunel Escobar. Escobar, just 26, has emerged as an above-average defensive shortstop with plenty of upside on offense. Moreover, he’s cheap. He’ll earn near the league minimum in 2009 and isn’t arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season.

There are several schools of thought on why the Braves were willing to sign Furcal despite Escobar being firmly entrenched at shortstop. First, the club probably has designs on re-entering the Jake Peavy sweepstakes and would have dangled Escobar as the primary trading chip. While we would certainly never argue against any team acquiring a 27-year-old ace, especially one who already has a CY Young Award in his trophy case and four years of cost certainty by virtue of a long-term deal, we do have a problem with the idea of Furcal serving as Escobar’s replacement. As we indicated earlier, what proof would the Braves have had that the Furcal they signed is the same as the 2003 vintage? Assuming he isn’t (and that’s a logical assumption to make given the fact he’s six years older and fresh off of major back surgery), the $9.5 million differential between his and Escobar’s 2009 contract EXCEEDS the $9 million Peavy is owed next season. And we haven’t even mentioned the $20 million the team would have owed Furcal in 2010-11.

If Atlanta really is that intent on using Escobar as trade bait for Peavy, the club could easily find another, more suitable substitute at shortstop. For example, Wren could swing a trade with Pittsburgh for Jack Wilson, a defensive specialist whose contract guarantees him just one more year at $7.25 million. If Wilson proves to be a bust, he’s off the Braves’ books a year from now. If he plays well, the Braves obtained a potential Gold Glove winner at less than 75% of what Furcal would have cost. Either way, Wren & Co. incur a fraction of the risk versus what they would have had the Furcal deal come to fruition.

The second school of thought as to why Atlanta entertained thoughts of bringing back Furcal was presented eloquently in this column by Dave O’Brien. As O’Brien stated, Atlanta would have shifted Furcal to second base and moved Kelly Johnson to left field with the intention of creating a high-flying, acrobatic double play combination. This was a ludicrous idea. Not only has Furcal played exactly one game at second in the past six years, but Johnson is a well above average fielder (he gets to a half-ball more per game than the average N.L. second baseman) whose high octane bat puts him within the elite tier of the league’s second baseman. As a left fielder, Johnson would be merely replacement level.

It’s obvious that Frank Wren once again chose sentiment over common sense with his ill-advised strategy to sign Rafael Furcal. Fortunately for the Braves, however, Furcal’s last minute machinations left his old team standing alone at the altar. Christmas has indeed come early to Atlanta.

Trade Fair: A Swap of Fallen Angels

2008-12-17T10:09:00.000-08:00

The Florida Marlins and Seattle Mariners have been two of the busiest teams this offseason and look to remain active for the remainder of the winter. The Marlins, as always, are in shedding mode. With 16 players eligible for arbitration following the 2008 season, club president David Samson ordered GM Michael Hill to slice and dice wherever and whenever possible. Thus far, Florida has traded away first baseman Mike Jacobs, outfielder Josh Willingham, starter Scott Olsen and reliever Kevin Gregg. The Mariners, fresh off a hugely disappointing 61-101 season and with new GM Jack Zduriencik in tow, are also looking to wheel and deal. Zduriencik just last week completed a three-team/12 player mega-deal with the Indians and Mets at the Winter Meetings and has indicated he’s got much more work ahead of him. Interestingly enough, in addition to being trigger-happy, both the Marlins and Mariners each have one glaring weakness – the Marlins covet an inexpensive catcher and the Mariners are in desperate need of a corner outfielder with pop. As a result, we propose the following trade:

- The Marlins trade outfielder Jeremy Hermida to the Mariners in exchange for catcher Jeff Clement.

This trade makes sense on so many levels. Let’s start with how it impacts the Marlins. Despite John Baker’s impressive big league debut (.299/.392/.447), the Marlins still view the 27-year-old as a backup. In Clement, Florida would be obtaining a young (25) catcher whose left-handed power bat would serve as an effective foil to right-handed Dan Uggla, Cameron Maybin, Hanley Ramirez and Jorge Cantu (provided the latter isn’t dealt in the Marlins’ ongoing purge). Though Clement’s .227/.295/.360 performance in 203 at bats with Seattle last season shows that the 2005 first rounder is far from a finished product, his 38 home runs and .853 OPS in 873 Triple A at bats are indicative of his vast offensive potential. On defense, Clement will never be mistaken for Johnny Bench; however, he has enough of an arm to stop a running game and has improved significantly at blocking balls in the dirt. Finally, Clement is cheap. He won’t be arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season, which means he’ll fit nicely into Florida’s miniscule budget.

Despite Hermida’s mouth watering potential, the Marlins won’t miss him. The team’s 2002 first rounder looked like he was poised for a breakout season following a .296/.369/.501 campaign in 2007, but he missed the first week of April and never really got back on track. By September he had lost his starting job, and with Maybin ready for prime time Hermida’s prospects for 2009 appear dim. Throw in the fact that Hermida is arbitration eligible and therefore due for a significant raise, and it’s not hard to see why the Marlins have placed the former phenom on the trading block.

Given Zduriencik’s extensive scouting and player evaluation background, it’s likely that a player with Hermida’s natural ability would be welcomed with open arms in Seattle. Still just 24, Hermida flashed five-tool potential throughout his minor league career and was at times compared to talents like Larry Walker and Paul O’Neill. Perhaps all he needs, like O’Neill 15 years ago, is a change of scenery and an organization that believes in him. With Raul Ibanez having moved on to greener pastures in Philadelphia, Hermida’s lefty bat and athleticism would fit in well with Ichiro and newly-acquired Franklin Gutierrez in the Mariners’ revamped outfield.

Make no mistake, it wouldn’t be easy for Seattle to part with Clement. In fact, as recently as a year ago he was seen as the organization’s catcher of the future. However, the Mariners’ catching depth should soften the blow. Not only does Kenji Johjima still have three years and $24 million left on his contract, but Adam Moore enjoyed a banner 2008 and already boasts far better defensive skills and the ability to hit for a higher average than Clement. The organization also has Rob Johnson, 24, who has nothing left to prove in the minors after hitting .305 at Triple A in 2008.

Friday: Covering the Bases

2008-12-12T14:52:00.000-08:00

In a special post-Winter Meetings edition of Covering the Bases, let’s look at the five biggest winners and losers from what happened this week in Las Vegas.

The Five Biggest Winners:

1) New York Mets – Not only did they get Francisco Rodriguez, the most prolific closer in baseball, at the bargain basement price of three years/$37 million, but they also were able to land J.J. Putz and Sean Green without giving up anyone of substance. Props go out to GM Omar Minaya, who early on recognized how oversaturated the relief pitching market was. Now if Minaya can land two more starters, the Metropolitans will be in prime position to reclaim the N.L. East title in their inaugural season at Citi Field.

2) Greg Genske – C.C. Sabathia’s agent looks like a genius after his client’s supposed fascination with going home to California prompted Yankees GM Brian Cashman to raise the team’s offer by one year and $20 million to seven-years/$161 million – the highest ever awarded to a pitcher. Let’s face it, with the Brewers five-year/$100 million proposal the only other official offer out there, Cashman & Co. were essentially bidding against themselves.

3) Detroit Tigers – After trading two minor leaguers -- one with such an extensive injury history that he’s never pitched 100 innings in a season (Guillermo Moscoso) and another who’s so green he’s never thrown a pitch in North America (Carlos Melo) – for a significant upgrade at catcher in Gerald Laird, the Tigers signed defensive whiz Adam Everett for practically nothing. As we described in detail on Tuesday, Everett may not be the second coming of Alan Trammell, but he was far more cost efficient than Jack Wilson or any of the other options on the table. Finally, though they were forced to give up an intriguing young bat in outfielder Matt Joyce, the trade for 25-year-old flamethrower Edwin Jackson goes a long way to shoring up the back end of the Tigers’ ailing starting rotation. Now all GM Dave Dombrowski must do is find a suitable closer and the wheels could be turning in Motown once again.

4) Edgar Renteria – True, he was actually signed before the start of the meetings, but we’re still in a state of disbelief that a guy who had his second-worst offensive season in a 13-year career and played shortstop like he was in slow motion was able to secure a two-year/$18.5 million deal in what is supposedly a bear market. Shame on the power-starved Giants, who would have been far better served by keeping capable youngster Emmanuel Burriss at shortstop and instead inking an offensive minded outfielder like Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreu.

5) Tampa Bay Rays – Despite adding Joyce to their OF mix (and saving about $2 million in the process), Tampa Bay should be able to take advantage of the glut of OF/DH types and add a proven run producer to their improving lineup. The team has already held discussions with Abreu, Jason Giambi and Milton Bradley.

The Five Biggest Losers:

1) Francisco Rodriguez – He thought he was headed for a five-year/$75 million payday, but that was before the economy dove like one of his splitters and the closer market became oversaturated. On the bright side, he won’t even be 30 the next time he’s a free agent so he’ll most probably have at least one more opportunity to break the bank.

2) Brian Fuentes – As we saw with K-Rod, the monetary price of premier relief pitching has decreased considerably this offseason. And with the Indians and Mets out of the closer sweepstakes, Fuentes’ market has shrunk considerably. Don’t be surprised if the lefty is forced to take a much smaller-than-anticipated deal with the budget-conscious Tigers or Brewers or even return to Colorado.

3) Pittsburgh Pirates – With Rafael Furcal unable to find a taker, it’s doubtful that the Buccos will be able to unload Jack Wilson and his $7.25 million salary. According to various media reports, GM Neil Huntington was asking for an exorbitant return in exchange for the light-hitting shortstop and was unwilling to eat any portion of his salary. Now Huntington will have to eat the whole thing.

4) Manny Ramirez – Has somebody finally called Scott Boras’ bluff? With Dodgers GM Ned Colletti seemingly drawing a line in the sand and other suitors failing to emerge, it looks like Boras and Manny have backed themselves into a corner. We see one of two scenarios developing: first, Ramirez will re-sign with Los Angeles for far less (in terms of both dollars and years) than what he was originally seeking; second, the Dodgers will tell the slugger to go fly a kite, at which time he’ll field a four-year/$100 million dollar offer from Washington after the latter was rebuffed in its attempt to sign local boy Mark Teixeira.

5) Free agent outfielders – This consists of the “sub-Manny” group consisting of Abreu, Bradley, Dunn and Burrell. With supply far exceeding demand this winter, these four will be highly disappointed by both the dollar amounts and tenor of their new contracts. At the present time we see Abreu going to the Cubs, Bradley setting up shop in Tampa Bay, Dunn ending up in Washington and Burrell hitting between Jay Bruce and Joey Votto in Cincinnati.

The Roar May Be Back in Detroit

2008-12-09T12:18:00.000-08:00

The Tigers had a great start to the Winter Meetings Monday, first obtaining catcher Gerald Laird from the Texas Rangers then signing free agent shortstop Adam Everett. The price for Laird was stiff – minor league right-handers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo. Moscoso, 25, had an excellent 2008 campaign, splitting time between High A and Double A. In 86.2 innings he used a 93-94 mph fastball along with an average curve and changeup to strike out 122 hitters while posting a sterling ERA of 1.94. If Moscoso impresses his new team out of the gate, he could be in Arlington by the All Star break. However, one note of caution with Moscoso is his durability. He underwent shoulder surgery in 2005 and has never pitched 100 innings in a season. Melo, only 17, is more of a long-term project. He has yet to pitch in North America, though he already boasts a mid-90’s fastball and at 6’3” 180 pounds he projects to add even more velocity as he matures. His offspeed stuff is still a work in progress.

Laird represents a clear upgrade over Pudge Rodriguez, who by last season had regressed considerably – both offensively and defensively – since signing with the Tigers in 2004. The 29-year-old has excellent catch-and-throw skills, is adept at blocking pitches in the dirt and received high marks for his handling of the Rangers’ pitching staff. At the plate, Laird can more than hold his own, which is all he’ll need to do in Detroit’s power-packed lineup. Though he doesn’t walk much, he makes good contact and has enough power to hit 15 home runs if he plays regularly. Laird also comes with a reasonable price tag. He earned just $1.6 million last season and still has two years before he’s eligible for free agency.

In Everett, the Tigers have signed an old-school, defense-first shortstop. He won’t hit much, but that’s not what he’s being paid to do. Instead, he’ll provide far more range than Edgar Renteria did and at a fraction of the price. To put the Everett signing into proper perspective, it’s important to note that multiple sources had the Tigers on the verge of trading either Matt Joyce or Jeff Larish, two burgeoning power hitters, for Jack Wilson and his $7.25 million salary. Everett, on the other hand, will cost Detroit a base salary of just $1 million and no prospects (or draft picks, for that matter). While Wilson has been slightly better than Everett on both sides of the ball, he’s certainly no Alan Trammell. Examining both players’ lifetime stats below, it’s evident that Everett, if he can stay healthy after an injury-riddled 2008 (Tiger scouts worked him out prior to signing him and deemed him fit to play), is by far the more cost-efficient acquisition.

AVE OBP SLG FP RANGE

.246 .298 .355 .976 4.21 (Everett)

.269 .312 .375 .978 4.68 (Wilson)

While the addition of Laird and Everett will significantly improve the Tigers’ defense, even more impressive was their low monetary cost. Combined, both players will earn approximately $4 million in base pay. That’s less than half of the $9 million the club paid Renteria for his subpar 2008 season. With this savings, the Tigers will be able to pursue a first rate closer – either Kerry Wood or J.J. Putz – and continue to lay the foundation for a revival in 2009.

Don't do it, Theo

2008-12-08T06:30:00.000-08:00

Temptation can come in many forms. To the married man, it’s the stunning blonde sitting alone in the corner of the bar. To a car thief, it’s the late model BMW idling unattended in front of a convenience store. To the female shopaholic, it’s that Gucci handbag on sale at half price. To Theo Epstein, GM of the Boston Red Sox, it’s the slugging first baseman available this Christmas for a cool $150 million.

Mark Teixeira is clearly the marquee position player up for grabs in this winter’s free agent bazaar. In fact, he’s the best hitter available since the winter of 2000-01, when Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez were offering their services to the highest bidder. A switch-hitter with both power and patience, Teixeira’s line of .290/.378/.541 since he broke into the major leagues in 2003 is the best by a first baseman not named Albert Pujols. Oh, he’s also young (only 28 on Opening Day), an excellent fielder (two Gold Gloves) and durable (he’s averaged over 150 games per season).

So, with Teixeira’s sparkling resume and the mounds of cash Boston seemingly has to spend this winter, is there any reason why Epstein should not make the two-time Silver Slugger his primary offseason objective?

Yes, there’s actually one huge reason -- Teixeira can’t pitch.

Despite Boston’s burgeoning dynasty, which includes two world championships and five postseason appearances since 2003, the organization’s post-2010 pitching outlook outside of emerging ace Jon Lester isn’t as bright as one might think. Workhorse Josh Beckett, a free agent after 2010, could follow the likes of Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and others by shunning megabuck overtures and return to his native Texas; Daisuke Matsuzaka, his 18-3 record last season notwithstanding, consistently racks up high pitch counts due to poor command and failed to make it into the sixth inning in almost half his starts; Tim Wakefield is 42; Clay Buchholz has regressed significantly and is now being dangled as trade bait; and recent free agent signee Junichi Tazawa has never thrown a pitch in North America. Put simply, the acquisition of a proven, frontline starter would bolster the Red Sox’ rotation at a crucial time and all but ensure the team’s ability to contend well into the next decade.

Fortunately, ‘tis the season for Epstein & Co. In C.C. Sabathia, Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett, Boston has three studs to choose from this winter. Sabathia is obviously the main attraction. As his work down the stretch with the Brewers exhibited, he’s a money pitcher, a guy who’s capable of putting a team on his back and changing the entire dynamic of a pennant race all by himself. Though it’s no secret that the big lefty desires to pitch close to his California home, the Red Sox could throw a wrench into his plans if they extend an offer which approaches the 6-year/$140 million proposal already put out by the Yankees. If nothing else, a decision by Boston to enter the Sabathia sweepstakes would drive up the price for the Bronx Bombers and possibly prevent them from making other major acquisitions this winter.

Lowe is intriguing for several reasons. First, he’s already had success pitching in the Beantown pressure cooker, as evidenced by his excellent 52-27 record as a starter from 2002-04 and the stingy 3.09 ERA he posted in 61 postseason innings with the Red Sox. Second, he’s durable. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Lowe has never missed a turn and averaged nearly 211 innings a season.

Burnett has always been something of an enigma – he has first-rate stuff but only appears to stay healthy in the walk year of his contract. Still, given his electric arm and the success he’s enjoyed against the arch-rival Yankees (2.43 ERA in almost 80 career innings), he’d provide manager Terry Francona with the perfect right-handed foil to Lester.

The Red Sox likely don’t have enough money to sign both Teixeira and a pitcher from the Sabathia/Lowe/Burnett triumvirate; however, they’d have far less difficulty making do without Teixeira’s lumber. In Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Jason Bay and J.D. Drew, Boston has the strongest lineup in the A.L. East. And let’s not forget that Ortiz will have an entire winter to rest and rehabilitate the ailing wrist which caused him to suffer through a disappointing 2008. Nor should we neglect to mention third baseman Mike Lowell, who, after undergoing hip surgery this offseason, could very well return to his 120 RBI form from 2007.

There’s yet another player we feel compelled to bring up. That’s Boston’s first baseman of the future, Lars Anderson. Anderson, 21, breezed through High A and Double A in 2008 at a .317/.417/.517 clip and displayed a good eye as well as the ability to hit with power to all fields. While no prospect is ever a sure thing (see Burroughs, Sean), Anderson is as close as it gets. The left-handed slugger should be ready for prime time no later than 2010 and would offer the club at least replacement level production at the big league minimum of $400,000. This is in contrast to Teixeira, who would offer mouth watering numbers but at an eye popping cost. So with the Red Sox offense already a juggernaut and more help on the way, Teixeira would represent an unnecessary luxury whose exorbitant cost could prohibit the organization from addressing other areas of need. And in the bare knuckles world of the A.L. East such a serious miscalculation could have dire consequences, including the end of a golden era in Boston.

Don’t do it, Theo.

Friday: Covering the Bases

2008-12-05T14:12:00.000-08:00

Lots of shortstop news this week…

· The full effect of the economic crisis was seen this week when the Yankees – the Yankees! – refused to offer arbitration to Bobby Abreu out of fear that it would result in the veteran outfielder receiving a one-year contract in the neighborhood of $16-18 million. Executives from both leagues think Abreu’s next deal will have a much lower annual value, perhaps as low as $8-10 million. That said, the Rays, who are in the market for an offensive-minded corner outfielder (preferably a right fielder), have to be paying particularly close attention to these recent developments. Don’t be surprised if the current economic malaise combined with the glut of corner outfielders on the market will continue to depress salaries, which, in turn, could cause an Abreu, Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell to fall right into Tampa’s lap.

· Multiple analysts have commented that the Padres’ trade yesterday of shortstop Khalil Greene to St. Louis would free up enough money to perhaps enable them to hang on to ace Jake Peavy (Greene is owed $6.5 million for 2009). Padres GM Kevin Towers sure hopes so because after yesterday a Peavy-to-Atlanta deal is far less likely. Not only is Greene no longer available to replace Yunel Escobar, who was long-rumored to be a component in any Padres-Braves deal, but former Braves prospect Brent Lillibridge’s inclusion in the Javier Vazquez trade takes yet another possible Escobar replacement out of the equation.

· Yesterday was not a good day for free agent Rafael Furcal, who saw his market shrink considerably. With St. Louis (Greene) and San Francisco (Edgar Renteria) both addressing their needs, Oakland is left as the only obvious landing spot for Furcal. And A’s GM Billy Beane, being the smart cookie that he is, is never one to bid against himself.

· And, finally, the Jack Wilson-to-Detroit trade rumors never made any sense. Not only is the $7.25 million Wilson is owed next year well out of the Tigers’ price range, but Wilson would have cost GM Dave Dombrowski at least one mid-level prospect (multiple sources have suggested that slugging corner infielder Jeff Larish was coveted by the Pirates). If Dombrowski continues to look externally to fill the team’s shortstop void, the name which makes the most sense is free agent Adam Everett. He’s cheap, won’t cost the team any prospects or draft picks and would likely accept a one-year deal. However, we here at Infield Chatter advocate the team shifting incumbent third baseman Brandon Inge to shortstop, moving Carlos Guillen from left field to third base and replacing Guillen with a Matt Joyce/Marcus Thames platoon. This alignment would help preserve Guillen’s back and knee while taking advantage of Inge’s range.

A Giant Mistake by Sabean

2008-12-04T14:43:00.000-08:00

Earlier this afternoon the San Francisco Giants announced that they had signed veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria to a two-year contract worth $18.5 million. This will prove to be a deal Giants GM Brian Sabean winds up regretting for years to come. Renteria is coming off a horrific season – not only was his .270/.317/.382 line the second worst of his 13-year career, but his range and arm have both diminished to the extent that he has become a defensive liability. It’s possible that Sabean has based his decision on the fact that Renteria enjoyed stellar seasons in 2006-07 with Atlanta after returning to the National League following a subpar 2005 with the Red Sox. We here at Infield Chatter, however, don’t expect history to repeat itself. Let’s not forget that Renteria played most of 2005 at 29; he’ll turn 34 in August. While we’re not accusing the five-time All Star of any foul play whatsoever, it’s become evident that thirty-somethings haven’t exactly aged gracefully since baseball enacted its strict anti-PED/amphetamine policy several years ago.

Even if Renteria does bounce back to the tune of his career .290/.347/.407 line, it’s doubtful that he alone will do much to reverse the Giants’ 72-90 record from 2008. The Giants’ primary Achilles Heel last season was not at shortstop (more on that in a minute). Instead, it was an utterly pathetic offense – an offense which hit just 94 home runs (25 percent less than the next closest team), was second-to-last in SLG and runs scored and third-to last in OBP. So, rather than wasting a fortune on a shortstop whose best days are likely far behind him, Sabean would have been much better served by taking advantage of the glut of corner outfielders on the market and signing a legitimate power threat like Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn or an on-base machine like Bobby Abreu for little more (both in dollars and in years) than what he squandered on Renteria. That would have been the most obvious way for the team’s longtime GM to steer the team back to respectability in 2009.

Ironically, if there was a bright spot in the Giants’ lineup in 2008, it was at shortstop, where promising youngster Emmanuel Burriss hit a healthy .283 in 95 games and posted a .357 OBP. The 23-year-old also showed excellent speed (13 steals) to go along with well above average range and a strong arm. Simply put, he was a far better player than Renteria. And at a pro rated salary of $390,000 he was much cheaper. The arrival of Renteria will relegate Burriss to the bench and stunt the kid’s development – not an insignificant development given that Burriss was supposed to spearhead a group of talented position prospects, including 2008 1st round pick Buster Posey, that is perhaps the best the team has assembled in decades. As a result, it turns out that the Bay might not be the only thing that’s foggy in San Francisco. So too might be the Giants’ chances in 2009. And even in 2010 and beyond.

It's a Brave New World for Vazquez

2008-12-04T12:04:00.000-08:00

The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox earlier today formally announced the completion of the winter’s second blockbuster trade. Atlanta has received veteran right-hander Javier Vazquez and lefty reliever Boone Logan in exchange for a package of four prospects, the stud among them being 22-year-old catcher Tyler Flowers.

With the winter meetings still days away and over $40 million of spare change burning a hole in his pocket, it’s obvious that Braves GM Frank Wren is just getting started. That said, it’s unfair at this juncture to evaluate this trade from Atlanta’s perspective. What we do know, however, is that despite gaudy minor league statistics and extraordinary talent, Vazquez has never enjoyed the sustained major league success so many had predicted for him when he broke into the big leagues a decade ago. He’s posted a very pedestrian 127-129 record, surrendered an average of almost 30 home runs in each of his nine full major league seasons and has regularly had his heart and ability to perform under pressure questioned on a routine basis. Still, the 32-year-old offers a precious commodity that scores of GMs, managers and pitching coaches would kill for: reliability. Since 2000, Vazquez has never made less than 32 starts or thrown under 198 innings. This is of vital importance for a team like the Braves, who in 2008 had to rely on the likes of Chuck James (9.10 ERA last season), Charlie Morton (6.15) and Jo-Jo Reyes (5.81), while the supposed Big Three of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Tim Hudson missed a combined 57 starts. And, finally, it has to be encouraging for the Braves that Vazquez will be returning to the National League, where in five full seasons he’s posted a very respectable 3.80 ERA. This is in contrast to the 4.54 ERA he’s delivered in four years in the American League.

So, now that we’ve established that Javier Vazquez would serve as a very effective middle-of-the rotation innings-eating starter in the N.L., it becomes imperative for the Braves to land a bonafide ace in order for this trade to be deemed a success. Jake Peavy, who Wren has been trying to wrestle away from the Padres since the end of the end of the regular season, is the ideal candidate. He’s young (27), a stud, and, by virtue of his long-term contract (guaranteed $62 million through 2012) represents cost certainty. After Peavy, there’s a substantial drop-off. Free agent Derek Lowe is reliable and clutch, but he’ll be 36 in June and has never been a true ace with the ability to miss bats at will. Fellow free agent A.J. Burnett has shut-down stuff, but he’s been a giant enigma his entire career and only risen to the occasion in his walk years.

From the White Sox perspective, the success of this transaction will primarily hinge on whether Flowers fulfills his vast potential. The 6’4” 250 pound power plant had an excellent 2008, including 12 home runs and an otherworldly 1.433 OPS in 75 at bats in the Arizona Fall League. He projects to hit at least 25 home runs a season at the big league level as well as post a solid OBP due to excellent pitch recognition. His defense, however, is another story. He has a below average arm in addition to poor receiving skills. If he can somehow improve his subpar defensive to the point where he’s at least adequate behind the dish, he’d be a noticeable upgrade over current backstop A.J. Pierzynski, whose current contract expires after 2010. Flowers was deemed redundant by the Braves, who already have three-time All Star Brian McCann locked up through 2012.

None of the three other prospects acquired by the Braves jump out at you as deal makers. Shortstop Brent Lillibridge, 25, is a decent fielder with slightly above average pop who will likely max out as a middle-of-the-field utilityman. Jon Gilmore is a 20-year-old third baseman who has put up good numbers in two years of short season ball. Some scouts project him as a Joe Crede-type performer, but he’s at least four years away and will have to improve his pitch recognition as he moves up the ladder. Santos Rodriguez, also 20, is a lanky lefty from the Dominican who throws in the mid-90’s and struck out nearly 14 batters per nine innings in 14 relief appearances the Gulf Coast League. Spotty control and poor command of his breaking pitch indicate that he’s also years away from making any kind of impact at the major league level.

Don’t be surprised if this deal is also prelude to something significantly bigger for Chicago GM Kenny Williams, who seemingly always has something up his sleeve. In trading away Nick Swisher and Vazquez, Williams has freed up nearly $17 million of salary from the White Sox 2009 payroll (Vazquez will earn $11.5 million in 2009) and shed $28.25 million in post-2009 obligations. If this is indeed the case, Hotlanta won’t be the only place the stove is simmering this offseason.

Rain Delay Is Over

2008-12-02T21:16:00.000-08:00

Hey everyone. It's been over a week since my last post and I apologize. Unfortunately, my computer crashed due to a terminally ill hard drive and I was forced to shut down the presses. Fear not, however, as I'm up and running again with a new machine and should be posting fresh columns well before the start of the Winter Meetings on Sunday. Thanks for your patience.

2008-11-24T14:03:00.000-08:00

The Arizona Fall League (“AFL”), the more senior of Major League Baseball’s two developmental offseason leagues, concluded its season on Saturday. As promised, we’ve provided a rundown of the top 15 prospects from the six-team circuit. Just as we did in our evaluation of the Hawaii Winter League’s (“HWL”) top 10 prospects, we placed the most weight on the players’ performance this fall; however, we also took into consideration the candidates’ tools and how they projected at the big league level. To be considered for this list a player must still qualify as a rookie (less than 130 total big league at bats or under 50 total innings pitched). As such, Yankees pitcher Phil Hughes, despite an excellent showing this fall, has not qualified.

Just a note of caution, the AFL, unlike its younger cousin, is an extreme hitters’ league (composite batting average and OPS of .293 and .834, respectively). As a result, only three pitchers made the following list.

1) Tommy Hanson (RHP), 22, Atlanta Braves – Hanson pitched so well in Arizona that he made himself unavailable in trade talks and might have cost the Braves a crack at Jake Peavy. The lanky right-hander was virtually unhittable, striking out 49 in 28.2 innings while posting an otherworldly WHIP of 0.59. He has excellent command of a mid-90’s fastball, a devastating overhand curve and developing changeup. Don’t be surprised if he’s in Atlanta’s rotation on Opening Day.

2) Matt Wieters (C ), 22, Baltimore Orioles – Wieters achieved such a high position on this list largely on the strength of an outstanding regular season. The Georgia Tech alum hit .355 with a 1.055 OPS while splitting time between High A and Double A. Though Wieters proved to be a mere mortal in the AFL, posting an OPS of “only” .845, he still showcased the wonderful defensive tools, including a howitzer arm, which earned him much praise during the course of the regular season. A switch-hitter with power from both sides of the plate, Wieters could develop into the best hitting catcher since Mike Piazza in his prime.

3) Justin Smoak (1B), 21, Texas Rangers – Strangely enough, Smoak hails from the same hometown as Wieters (Goose Creek, SC) and is also a switch-hitter. He’s also a future superstar. With patience, power and the ability to hit with power from both sides of the plate, Smoak has already elicited plenty of Mark Teixeira comparisons in just several months as a professional. His smooth defensive play is also eerily reminiscent of the All Star first sacker. In just 51 fall at bats (he started the AFL season on the taxi squad), Smoak swatted seven extra base hits and earned ten walks.

4) Brian Matusz (LHP), 21, Baltimore Orioles – Don’t let Matusz’ 4.73 ERA this fall fool you. Instead, pay more attention to his secondary numbers – like his 4.5/1 K/BB ratio and 1.26 WHIP. Matusz’ 93 mph heater notwithstanding, his two best pitches are a knee-buckling curve ball and straight changeup. After years of futility, the thought of a Wieters - Matusz battery should give Orioles fans plenty to smile about.

5) Tyler Flowers (C ), 22, Atlanta Braves – It should tell you something about the Braves system that after Flowers’ unbelievable fall (12 home runs and a 1.433 OPS in just 75 at bats) that he’s no better than Atlanta’s third-best prospect after Hanson and outfielder Jason Heyward. Though Arizona’s thin air is at least partially responsible for Flowers’ outrageous numbers, the fact remains he’s an outstanding prospect. At 6’4” and 245 pounds, Flowers is an intimidating presence both at the plate and behind it. His offense is ahead of his defense at this point, but he has enough raw skills to mature into a sound overall receiver with an arm that could stop any running game.

6) Logan Morrison (1B), 21, Florida Marlins – Morrison is very similar to the Reds’ Yonder Alonso, who was our highest ranked prospect in the HWL. He has a sweet, left-handed swing that should generate at least 20-home run power as he matures. He’s adept at hitting to all fields and isn’t afraid to take a walk.

7) Andrew Lambo (OF-1B), 20, Los Angeles Dodgers – Though Lambo’s numbers weren’t as gaudy as most of the other hitters featured here, it’s important to remember that 2008 was only his first full professional season. Lambo fell to the 3rd round of the 2007 draft due to questions about his maturity. So far as a pro he’s dismissed those concerns while displaying a maturity beyond his years. He has a pretty left-handed stroke that can’t be taught and should hit for more power as he fills out his 6’3” frame. A natural first baseman, he’s rapidly becoming an adequate left fielder. Still, it’s his bat that will carry him to the big leagues.

8) Jason Donald (SS-3B), 24, Philadelphia Phillies – After a disappointing college career at Arizona, Donald has done nothing but hit as a professional. He posted a .307/.391/.497 line in Double A this year than exploded in Arizona to the tune of .407/.476/.747. Because Donald lacks the range of a true shortstop, he’ll likely shift over to second or third when he reaches Philadelphia. And with Chase Utley likely to miss the beginning of 2009 after hip surgery, Donald has emerged as the likely fill-in candidate.

9) Brett Wallace (3B-1B), 22, St. Louis Cardinals – Wallace’s girth has been the subject of much criticism from scouts, but no one doubts his ability to hit. He followed a .337/.427/.530 showing between Low A and Double A with a .309/.381/.585 performance in the AFL. If Wallace can handle third base, he could be a fixture in the middle of Tony LaRussa’s lineup for years to come. If not, expect him to be dangled as trade bait.

10) Julio Borbon (OF), 22, Texas Rangers – One of the most unheralded prospects in all of baseball, Borbon is a dead ringer for Johnny Damon at the same age. He has the speed to swipe 40 bases a year, the power to hit at least 10-15 dingers annually and enough of an eye to lead off. He’s also an accomplished center fielder, despite a below average arm.

11) Austin Jackson (OF), 21, New York Yankees – It will be interesting to see how Jackson develops – will his merely average speed “play up” and allow him to mature into a bona fide big league center fielder or will that lack of speed combined with pedestrian power relegate him to fourth outfielder status? Regardless, Jackson is an outstanding athlete (he was a prized Georgia Tech basketball recruit) who has made adjustments at every level and emerged as the Yankees best position prospect since Derek Jeter.

12) Chris Valaika (SS-2B), 23, Cincinnati Reds – Valaika isn’t an exceptional athlete, but has hit everywhere he’s played. This includes the AFL, where he hit .311 in 119 at bats. With the Reds’ shortstop situation as jumbled as it is, Valaika could claim the job with a strong spring training.

13) Lou Marson (C ), 22, Philadelphia Phillies – Though Marson was on the taxi squad this fall, he still showed enough in just 34 at bats to warrant a spot on this list. Marson has a short stroke which produces line drives to all fields, as well as a keen eye which has resulted in high OBPs throughout his career. Defensively, Marson is agile and has soft hands to go along with a cannon arm.

14) J.P. Arencibia (C ), 22 Toronto Blue Jays – Arencibia is the Blue Jays’ catcher of the future (perhaps as soon as 2009) and his performance in Arizona did nothing to refute this. He has excellent power for a catcher, as well as the ability to hit for a high average. He is, however, averse to taking a walk. On defense, Arencibia receives balls well and has a strong arm. The fact that he’s bi-lingual (English and Spanish) also doesn’t hurt.

15) Aaron Poreda (LHP), 22, Chicago White Sox – Like Matusz, don’t pay attention to Poreda’s AFL numbers. Instead, pay attention to his stuff and size. The 6’6” 240 pound giant throws a fastball, which tops out at 98 mph, and an improving slider. Because he doesn’t throw anything soft, Poreda’s future may be as a power reliever in the back of a major league bullpen.

Friday: Covering the Bases

2008-11-21T20:10:00.000-08:00

Some observations after an unexpectedly quiet week….

Royal Mistake, Part Deux

Well, it looks like Dayton Moore is at it again. Less than three weeks after completing the Leo Nunez-for-Mike Jacobs clunker with the Marlins, the Royals GM has engaged the Red Sox in a Ramon Ramirez-for-Coco Crisp swap. This trade was a horrendous one for Kansas City, and here are three reasons why:

1) Crisp will replace David DeJesus as the Royals’ center fielder, with DeJesus shifting to left field. While Crisp is a strong defensive center fielder, he’s only a marginal upgrade over the competent DeJesus. However, DeJesus’ bat is far superior to Crisp’s, as evidenced by his sizeable edge in career OPS .782 to .740. Thus, in terms of both players’ all-round game, DeJesus has significantly more value to Kansas City in center field than Crisp.

2) In less than three weeks, Moore has considerably weakened the Royals’ bullpen by trading two key setup men in Nunez and Ramirez. Both relievers were not only effective in 2008, posting ERAs under 3.00 and WHIPs lower than 1.25, but they are also not yet arbitration eligible and therefore likely to earn just above the league minimum next season. Regardless of whether Moore looks inside or outside the system for relief help, it’s doubtful that he’ll find anyone who’s as cheap and successful as the guys he just traded away.

3) Crisp represents a substantial opportunity cost for the cash-strapped Royals. He’ll earn $5.75 million in 2009 and has a 2010 club option for $8 million – a decent deal, but by no means a steal for a solid, though not spectacular, center fielder with a career .280/.331/.409 line. Instead of tying up valuable financial resources on Crisp, Moore should have realized that his team’s primary deficiencies in 2008 were a lack of power (Kansas City was last in the A.L. with 120 homeruns) and an inability to get on base (the Royals were tied for second-to-last in the junior circuit with a .paltry 320 OBP) and addressed those issues by leaving DeJesus in center field and acquiring, through either a trade or free agent signing, an offensive-minded corner outfielder.

A Giant Signing by Sabean

The signing of free agent lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt to a two-year/$8 million contract was a master stroke by Giants’ GM Brian Sabean. Not only is Affeldt a highly durable reliever who has appeared in nearly 150 games over the past two seasons, but his effectiveness against both left- and right-handed hitters (the latter hit .255 against him last season with just a .726 OPS) means that he could emerge as an option at closer should the unsteady Brian Wilson falter. Furthermore, the tenor of Affeldt’s contract is highly advantageous for San Francisco. Most quality relievers in recent years have been able to command three- or even four-year deals on the open market, thereby placing considerable financial stress on their teams should they regress or succumb to injury. However, the Giants’ short-term commitment to Affeldt protects the club in the event the marriage does not work out. Finally, because of Affeldt’s Type B status, this contract did not cost San Francisco a draft pick. Instead, the Cincinnati Reds, Affeldt’s former team, gain a sandwich pick in between Rounds 1 and 2 in next June’s draft.

So long, Mike

Congratulations to Mike Mussina on a wonderful 18-year major league career which saw him compile a 270-153 record and pitch in nearly 140 postseason innings. Despite the numerous accolades Moose collected during his sterling career, we salute him most for his decision to retire on his own terms following his only 20-win campaign. In an era when too many has-beens decide to hang on in an effort to pad both their bank accounts and win totals, Mussina took the high road and chose to retire in order to spend more time with his two young sons. So, with #35’s career now just a memory one of the most interesting debates this decade is about to begin – is Mike Mussina a Hall of Famer? Infield Chatter will provide its own analysis and answer to this very question in a special feature next week. Until then, have a great weekend…

Sun, Sand, Surf...and Baseball: The HWL Top 10 Prospects

2008-11-19T13:47:00.000-08:00

Major League Baseball sponsors two offseason leagues dedicated exclusively to prospect development, the Hawaii Winter League (HWL) and the Arizona Fall League (AFL). The former features youngsters who generally have not played above A Ball, while the latter is for more advanced prospects who have reached at least Double A. With the HWL having concluded its season earlier this week, we’ll use today’s column to take a look at the circuit’s ten best prospects.

Although the players’ statistical performance this autumn is the most important criterion we’ve used to determine whether they’re worthy of mention, it’s not our only measuring stick. We’ve also taken into consideration a candidate’s tools and to what extent they’ll enable him to eventually make a meaningful contribution at the big league level. Despite the fact that the HWL is an extreme pitcher’s league (the composite batting average and OPS were just .248 and .701, respectively), only three pitchers made the list. Also, the 2008 draft class was well represented, with five of the ten players featured in this column having been selected this past June.

The AFL championship game is not scheduled until Saturday. Therefore, we’ll wait until next week to unveil our top prospect list for that circuit.

1) Yonder Alonso (1B), 21, Cincinnati Reds – Alonso, who was the seventh overall pick in June, was by far the most polished hitter in Hawaii. He not only exhibited a quick bat and the ability to go the other way, but his pitch recognition was outstanding, as evidenced by his BB/K ratio of 20/23. One area that still needs work, however, is his performance against lefties. He hit just .222 against them with 12 strikeouts in 36 at bats.

2) Jason Castro (C), 21, Houston Astros – Another first-round pick from June, Castro used the HWL to make a case for himself as the most athletic backstop in the minors. The former Stanford Cardinal showcased above average agility (despite a 6’3” frame), soft hands and a strong, accurate arm. Castro is no slouch at the plate either. He has excellent balance and generates plenty of power with a sweet, left-handed stroke.

3) Brett Hunter (RHP), 21, Oakland A’s – Don’t let the 5.59 ERA fool you. In just 9.2 innings out of the bullpen, the Pepperdine alum was lights out, striking out an astounding 18 batters while yielding just four hits. His fastball sat at 95-97 mph and occasionally hit triple digits, and his curveball was just as filthy. Hunter was wild at times, as he tried to shake off the rust that was the result of him sitting out most of the spring with an elbow injury. The A’s haven’t announced whether he’ll start or relieve as a pro. If it’s the latter, he could evolve into a Brad Lidge-style shutdown closer.

4) Buster Posey (C), 21, San Francisco Giants – If this list was based purely on offense, Posey might be sitting at the top, as his short, crisp stroke produced line drive after line drive en route to a .338 average. Posey’s defense was another story, however. He rarely showed the form which enabled him to win the Golden Spikes award while at Florida State and led the HWL in passed balls. Still, the Giants’ love his athleticism and strong arm and believe that in due time they’ll be able to iron out his rough edges.

5) Kyle Drabek (RHP), 20, Philadelphia Phillies – The son of 1990 N.L. Cy Young winner, Doug Drabek, rebounded nicely after missing most of the 2008 regular season recovering from Tommy John Surgery. His mid 90’s fastball and hammer curve enabled him to whiff 19 hitters in 20.2 innings against just four walks. He’s barely six feet tall so it’ll be interesting to see how his arm holds up as he moves through the minors.

6) Jeremy Bleich (LHP), 21, New York Yankees – The last of the 2008 draftees on this list, Bleich is a four-pitch control specialist whose fastball rarely breaks 90-91 mph. Still, the cerebral Stanford alum commands all four quadrants of the plate like a ten-year veteran and is able to generate his fair share of swings and misses. Like Hunter, Bleich missed a substantial portion of the college season because of arm problems and signed too late to log any meaningful innings during the regular season. If Bleich’s health issues are behind him, expect a rapid progression through the Yankees’ system.

7) Andrew Brackman (RHP), 22, New York Yankees – This 6’10” giant made his professional debut in Hawaii after recovering from Tommy John Surgery performed shortly after he was drafted in 2007. The velocity on Brackman’s fastball received rave reviews (he consistently worked in the mid-90), but he needs to develop better command of it. He also needs to work on the release point on his overhand curve. After posting a WHIP of 1.65 and walking 25 in 34 innings, it’s evident that Brackman will need much more minor league seasoning than the polished Bleich.

8) Ryan Kalish (OF), 20, Boston Red Sox – Kalish was still feeling the effects of the broken hamate bone he suffered in 2007, which robbed him of his power throughout all of 2008. Still, as his .446 OBP attests, he displayed outstanding pitch recognition for such a young player and was a spark plug on the bases with 12 steals in 13 attempts. An excellent athlete, Kalish can play anywhere in the outfield and has a strong, accurate arm.

9) Todd Frazier (OF-3B), 22, Cincinnati Reds – All Frazier has done since being drafted in 2007 is hit, and he continued to do that in Hawaii, where he posted a .922 OPS with 16 extra base hits in just 27 games. The Reds, however, are still undecided on his position. He was drafted out of Rutgers as a shortstop, but lacks the range to play there. He’s played some third base, but lacks the footwork to stay at the hot corner. Out guess is that he’ll wind up in left field once he gets to the majors. He has more than enough arm strength and speed for the position.

10) Michael Taylor (OF), 22, Philadelphia Phillies – Taylor’s .247/.347/.412 performance in Hawaii was disappointing compared to his regular season line of .346/.412/.557; however, the former Stanford Cardinal (sensing a pattern here?) remains a legitimate prospect. At 6’6” 250 pounds, Taylor is a mountain of a man whose overall game elicits memories of Hall of Famer Dave Winfield. He can hit the ball a country mile, run like a deer and play a vintage right field. If he makes the same progress in 2009 like he made last season he could be at Citizens Bank Park sometime during the second half.

Friday: Covering the Bases

2008-11-14T13:51:00.000-08:00

The Hot Stove League is starting to simmer!

The Cubs’ acquisition of Kevin Gregg in a trade with the Marlins means that the Kerry Wood era in Chicago has come to a close. As a result, expect young fireballer Carlos Marmol to assume the closer’s mantle from the departed Wood and Gregg to inherit Marmol’s 7th and 8th inning setup role.

Wood’s departure from Chicago, together with Trevor Hoffman’s seemingly inevitable exit from San Diego, further muddles the relief picture throughout baseball. There are currently four closers in the free agent market (Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, Wood and Hoffman) and four more reportedly up for grabs via the trade market in Colorado’s Huston Street, Seattle’s J.J. Putz, Arizona’s Brandon Lyon and the White Sox’ Bobby Jenks. With not more than four teams – the Tigers, Mets, Indians and Cardinals – in desperate need of back-of-the-bullpen help, it’s only logical to think that the basic law of supply and demand will result in an overwhelmingly buyers’ market and ultimately cause a downward correction in the dollar amount and tenor of contracts awarded this winter. More specifically, a year ago this time it would have seemed perfectly feasible for Rodriguez to have landed a five-year/$75 million deal from someone. This year, however, he might have to settle for a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $55 million.

It’s gone virtually unnoticed, but in Leo Nunez (obtained from the Royals in the Mike Jacobs trade) and Jose Ceda, acquired from the Cubs in the Kevin Gregg deal, Florida has picked up a pair of young, talented right-handed relievers. Ceda is especially intriguing. He’s 6’4” and 275 pounds and combines a mid-90’s fastball with a biting slider. In 30 Double A innings last season his K/9 ratio was better than 12.5. Add Nunez and Ceda to the hard-throwing trio of Matt Lindstrom, Logan Kensing and Renyel Pinto, and it’s easy to envision the Marlins with a shutdown bullpen for years to come….assuming the perpetual South Florida fire sale ends at some point.

And speaking of the fire sale, it looks like outfielder Jeremy Hermida will be the next purge victim. Hermida’s talent is unmistakable – throughout his brief major league career he’s displayed the ability to hit for average and power, a cannon arm and above average speed – however, he’s never been able to translate his tools into performance. He looked like he was ready to bust out after hitting .296/.369/.501 in an injury-riddled 2007 campaign, but slipped to .249/.323/.406 in 2008 and by the end of the season wasn’t even playing everyday. The Cubs are rumored to be very interested in Hermida, but Lou Piniella has a poor track record with underachieving youngsters (see Grieve, Ben). Tampa Bay, on the other hand, would be an ideal location for Hermida. The Rays desperately seek an affordable power bat for right field and posses the young pitching that would entice the Marlins to swing a deal. They also have a manager in Joe Maddon who, in just three years, has turned around the careers of Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, Matt Garza and Dioneer Navarro and could probably do the same for Hermida.

Yankees' First Move of the Offseason an Impressive One

2008-11-14T11:20:00.000-08:00

The Yankees scored a major coup yesterday when they obtained first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira from the White Sox in exchange for utility infielder Wilson Betemit and minor league right-handers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. Despite a subpar 2008 in which he hit .219/.332/.410, Swisher is a proven run producer who isn’t afraid to work the count and take a walk. Prior to last season, the switch hitter had posted a robust .828 OPS in over 1,600 career at bats dating back to 2004.

Swisher’s real value to the Yankees, however, will be the flexibility he offers them. This is of huge importance given the muddled state of their lineup. First baseman Jason Giambi will almost certainly leave as a free agent this winter, with right fielder Bobby Abreu not far behind. And few people believe that Hideki Matsui, fresh off surgery on his gimpy knee, can still play left field on a regular basis. Enter Swisher, who is more than adequate anywhere in the outfield and Gold Glove caliber at first. If the season started tomorrow, Swisher would play first base while the outfield would feature Johnny Damon in left, Brett Gardner in center and Xavier Nady in right. Matsui would serve as the DH. Should the Yankees win the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, Swisher would shift to center, where he would represent a substantial offensive upgrade over Gardner.

Swisher’s contract is another plus for the Yankees. The fact that he’s signed through 2012 at a very affordable total of $31.3 million (including a $10.25 million club option for 2012) is vital as Matsui, Damon and Nady all have contracts that expire after next season. With Austin Jackson the organization’s only outfield prospect on the immediate horizon and a weak 2010 free agent class, Swisher’s presence could become even more crucial.
Although at first blush this deal appears like a salary dump for the White Sox, it’s far, far more than that. By replacing Swisher’s $5.3 million salary with the roughly $1.5 million Betemit will earn in 2009 in his second year of arbitration eligibility, Chicago would be freeing up almost $4 million. Add this to the millions White Sox GM Kenny Williams would save by trading away starter Javier Vazquez (who’s scheduled to earn $11.5 million in 2009), and the ChiSox would be in a great financial position to fill significant holes in their lineup either by trading for Angels’ third baseman Chone Figgins or signing free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. Williams’ recent moves are not without precedent. Think back to the winter of 2004-05 when Williams traded away slugger Carlos Lee and, much to the chagrin of fans on the South Side, received only Luis Vizcaino and Scott Podsednik in return. The consternation quickly turned to euphoria when Williams was then able to pick up A.J. Pierzynski, Tadahito Iguchi and Orlando Hernandez – all of whom played key roles when the White Sox won the 2005 World Series. Might lightning strike twice?

Sizing up the Nationals -- Marlins Trade

2008-11-11T20:57:00.000-08:00

Yesterday’s Nationals – Marlins trade should have taken no one by surprise. From the Nationals’ perspective, this deal was significant because the club acquired two players, left fielder Josh Willingham and starter Scott Olsen, who will represent significant upgrades at their respective positions. For the Marlins, this was nothing more than a good, old-fashioned salary dump. Bidding adieu to Willingham and Olsen, both of whom are arbitration-eligible for the first time, will cut between $4 and $5 million from the Marlins’ 2009 payroll, while only one of the three prospects Florida received, second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, is ready to contribute at the major league level. The other two youngsters, pitcher P.J. Dean and infielder Jake Smolinski, are each at least three years away. All three are considered mid-level prospects, although the 23-year-old Bonifacio has improved his plate discipline and has the speed to steal 50 bases a season.

It will be interesting to see just how much of an impact this deal has for Washington. Willingham’s .833 OPS in 2008 suggests that he’s a considerable upgrade over the Willie Harris/Willie Mo Pena left field platoon, which produced a .707 OPS. However, Willingham’s shoddy defense could force a move to first base. If that’s the case, some of Washington’s initial advantage would be negated because Willingham’s bat wouldn’t play quite as well at first base as it does in the outfield. Still, it would enable Nats’ GM Jim Bowden to dangle incumbent Nick Johnson as trade bait in an effort to enhance the team’s pitching depth. Speaking of pitching, Olsen is the real wild card in the deal. After an excellent 2006 rookie campaign in which he went 12-10 with a 4.04 ERA and WHIP of 1.30, personal problems and the loss of at least 5 MPH from his fastball caused his ERA to balloon to 5.81 and his WHIP to swell to 1.76 in 2007. Though 2008 saw Olsen’s ERA and WHIP improve to 4.20 and 1.31, respectively, his K/9 ratio fell to 5.04 (it was 8.27 in 2006) as he didn’t regain the velocity on his fastball and bite on his slider until September. If Olsen is able to stay out of trouble and maintain his stuff, this trade could end up being one of the most one-sided deals of the entire offseason. If not, it should still wind up in Washington’s favor.

Thank you....

2008-11-11T13:40:00.001-08:00

...to all members of the Armed Forces who have defended this great country of ours. Your sacrifice will never be forgotten.

Beane Gets All "A's" for Holliday Deal

2008-11-11T13:16:00.000-08:00

By now you’ve all heard about the Athletics’ acquisition of Matt Holliday from the Rockies in exchange for outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, starter Greg Smith and reliever Huston Street. Chalk this up as yet another heist for Oakland’s diabolical genius, GM Billy Beane.

It’s obvious that the A’s gave up some legitimate talent to procure the services of Holliday, a two-time All Star. However, each of the three players Beane surrendered had his warts and will be easily replaced from within the Oakland organization. Gonzalez was by far the most talented of the bunch. For years, the 23-year-old Venezuelan has been lauded for his plus-plus throwing arm, as well as above average power and speed, but he’s also been labeled as an enigma who only rarely has been able to translate his tools into performance. Furthermore, in Ryan Sweeney and Travis Buck, the latter’s injury-marred 2008 notwithstanding, the A’s have a pair of young outfielders with enough talent to compensate for the loss of Gonzalez. Smith is a finesse lefty who will never amount to more than a fourth starter. Although he did provide the A’s with nearly 200 replacement level innings at the big league minimum salary in 2008, the emergence of hotshot prospects Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and James Simmons would have rendered Smith redundant by the middle of 2009 anyway. Finally, there’s Street, who, despite his early major league success, has suffered a variety of physical ailments the past two seasons and was on the verge of being passed on Oakland’s depth chart by Joey Devine. Devine had 49 strikeouts and a microscopic ERA of 0.59 in 45 innings in 2008 and will earn slightly more than the big league minimum next season.

Much has been made about the discrepancy between Holliday’s home/road splits (1.099/.856 OPS from 2006-08), yet over the past three years the Oklahoma native has paced all National League outfielders with .329/32/113 seasonal averages while playing an excellent left field. There’s no question that Holliday’s arrival brings much-needed muscle to Oakland’s offense, which ranked last in average, slugging and on-base percentage, at a crucial time with as many as three rookies cracking the starting rotation by the middle of next season. There are plenty of questions, however, as to what Oakland’s next move (or moves) will be. With a reported $30 million to play with this offseason, Beane could go all Cashman on us by inking Rafael Furcal and Jason Giambi before the turkey’s even in the oven and try to make a run at the A.L. West next year. If the A’s do end up in contention, then Beane looks like the genius that he is. And if they falter, all he has to do is turn around and spin off Holliday at the July 31st trading deadline to the highest bidder, essentially turning Holliday into next year’s version of Mark Teixeira. Regardless, the trade for Holliday was a win-win for Oakland and has further cemented Beane’s status as the best GM in the game.

Friday: Covering the Bases

2008-11-07T21:34:00.000-08:00

Happy Friday, Everyone….

If there was still any question as to whether the Braves would include minor league pitcher Tommy Hanson in a trade for Jake Peavy it was answered last night with a resounding “NO.” Pitching in front of Atlanta’s top brass in the Arizona Fall League (a finishing school for baseball’s top prospects), including GM Frank Wren, Hanson was simply dominant. The 6’6” right-hander used a 92-94 mph fastball in all quadrants of the strike zone, as well as a knee-buckling 12-to-6 curveball, to strikeout 11 hitters while walking just one in five innings of work. This outing was indicative of the type of autumn Hanson has had. In 18 frames in what is unanimously known as a hitter’s paradise, Hanson has yielded just one run while boasting an otherworldly 30/4 K/BB ratio. The general consensus among scouts is that the 22-year-old Hanson will be no worse than a #2 starter in the big leagues and could even match Peavy’s big league success at some point. In other words, Padres GM Kevin Towers shouldn’t even waste his time by asking for Hanson in any trade scenario with the Braves.

Earlier today San Diego chose to exercise Brian Giles' $9 million option over his $3 million buyout. Though Infield Chatter is a big fan of Kevin Towers, we have no choice but to question this decision. With owner John Moores putting the Padres up for sale in the wake of a contentious divorce with his ex-wife and Peavy, the face of the franchise, on the trading block as a result, it’s evident that the organization is in full rebuilding mode. So, why then, would Towers pick up the option on his soon-to-be 38-year-old right fielder? We’d understand the move if Towers had designs on trading Giles in return for prospects; however, the El Cajon native has a full no trade clause and just last summer vetoed a trade to the playoff-bound Red Sox. Who’s to say Giles wouldn’t follow suit in 2009 and leave the likely last place Padres saddled with a weighty contract?

In our first Trade Fair feature we proposed the Tigers shipping slugger Magglio Ordonez to Tampa Bay as part of a three-way deal that would also include the Brewers. This week it surfaced that the Phillies are one of several teams in hot pursuit of outfielder Matt Holliday. The Rockies are seemingly anxious to trade Holliday because he’s a free agent after 2009, and, like most Scott Boras clients, has no desire to sign a long-term deal before maximizing his value in the free agent market. Anyway, Holliday is an outstanding hitter (though his numbers are significantly inflated by the “Coors effect”), who would surely force the Phillies to surrender their top two prospects – catcher Lou Marson and SS Jason Donald – in any deal. This leads us to ask whether the Phillies would consider trading for Ordonez instead. For roughly the same package it would take to land Holliday, Philadelphia could acquire a player, who, despite being six years older, is a better all-round hitter and is signed for three years at a cheaper average annual salary than what Holliday would likely fetch in the open market. And as was the case in our trade proposal from last week, Detroit would happily offer to eat a portion of Ordonez' contract and ease the Phillies' financial burden. From the Tigers’ perspective, this deal is a slam dunk. Both Marson and Donald are excellent young talents who would provide extremely cheap solutions to two gapping holes in Detroit’s everyday lineup.

A Free Agent Primer

2008-11-06T20:29:00.000-08:00

This offseason features the highest quality collection of free agents in nearly a decade. With perhaps the best southpaw in all of baseball, the most dynamic run producer of this generation, and the new single season saves record holder all poised to hit the open market, the hot stove league is simmering. And we didn’t even mention Mark Teixeira! The following is one writer’s predictions of where each of the top 50 free agents will go, for how long and for how much….

1) C.C. Sabathia – Angels, 6 years/$145 million – The big lefty will forego the Yankees’ 7 year/$175 million offer to stay closer to home.

2) Mark Teixeira – Yankees, 7 years/$140 million – Teixeira, a resident in Scott Boras’ stable, will go to the highest bidder. And after losing out on Sabathia, the Yanks will not be outbid.

3) Manny Ramirez – Dodgers, 3 years/$81 million – The Dodgers won’t give Ramirez, another Boras client, the long-term deal he covets. However, they will acquiesce in his desire to trail only Alex Rodriguez in terms of annual value.

4) Francisco Rodriguez – Mets, 4 years/$60 million – The Mets, on the heels of their second straight September swoon, are desperate to shore up a leaky bullpen. With most of the $10.5 million owed next year to the injured Billy Wagner covered by insurance, affording K-Rod won’t be a problem. The single season saves leader won’t get the five-year deal he desires, but he will match Mariano Rivera’s $15 million per season.

5) Ryan Dempster – Cubs, 4 years/$52 million – Dempster will stay with the Cubbies after his career year. If the Braves don’t lead Jake Peavy via trade, look for them to make a strong play for the right-hander.

6) Ben Sheets – Astros, 2 years/$25 million – Sheets has immense talent but has missed significant time to injury three of the last four years. Look for Roy Oswalt’s good buddy and former Olympic teammate to get a lucrative, yet short-term, offer from Houston.

7) Derek Lowe – Yankees, 4 years/$50 million – With Sabathia in Anaheim, the Yankees will do whatever it takes to land pitching. And that includes signing the 35-year-old Lowe to a long-term deal.

8) A.J. Burnett – Yankees, 5 years/$70 million – The Evil Empire strikes again!

9) Pat Burrell – Giants, 4 years/$50 million – Burrell will pass up the Phillies’ two-year offer for a chance to go home to California. A big mistake for the Giants, who, in an attempt to bolster their anemic offense, would essentially be signing a full-time DH.

10) Adam Dunn – Nationals, 4 years/$48 million – Nats’ GM Jim Bowden is well-acquainted with Dunn from their time together in Cincinnati. Dunn would bring much-needed power to Washington and would probably wind up at first base.

11) Bobby Abreu – Yankees, 1 year/$15 million – Abreu will take the Yankees up on their arbitration offer, and the two sides will settle on a lucrative one-year deal before the hearing.

12) Brian Fuentes – Indians, 3 years/$36 million – The bullpen was once again Cleveland’s Achilles heel in 2008, and GM Mark Shapiro won’t let that happen again.

13) Orlando Hudson – Cardinals, 4 years/$40 million – Expect the Cardinals to outbid the Blue Jays for the three-time Gold Glove winner. The Mets, stuck with Luis Castillo, will make a light-hearted bid, if any.

14) Oliver Perez – Mets, 4 years/$52 million – The Mets, after losing out to the Yankees in the Derek Lowe sweepstakes, will give Perez and his agent (yes, Boras again) whatever they want.

15) Milton Bradley – Rangers, 3 years/$27 million – The temperamental Bradley will take a below-market deal to stay in Texas after finally finding a comfort zone under manager Ron Washington.

16) Raul Ibanez – Cubs, 3 years/$35 million – With Abreu staying in New York and Kosuke Fukodome in manager Lou Piniella’s doghouse (and likely peddled at some point this winter), look for GM Jim Hendry to make a big play for Ibanez.

17) Rafael Furcal – Dodgers, 3 years/$36 million – Furcal jumpstarted the Dodgers’ offense before he succumbed to a back injury in May. If he’s healthy, this deal’s a bargain. If not, it’s yet another poor signing on GM Ned Colletti’s ledger.

18) Kerry Wood – Cubs, 2 years/$18 million – Wood wants three years, but with Carlos Marmol ready to close he’ll be lucky to get two.

19) Mike Mussina – Yankees, 1 year/$8 million – Despite persistent retirement rumors, Mussina’s phenomenal 2008 and the allure of Cooperstown (he’s just 30 wins shy of 300), will keep the Stanford alum in the Bronx for at least one more year.

20) Jason Giambi – A’s, 1 year/$7 million – Giambi will go back to Oakland, where the power-starved A’s will welcome him with open arms.

21) Andy Pettitte – Yankees, 1 year/$10 million – It’s either the Yankees or retirement for this class act.

22) Orlando Cabrera – Orioles, 3 years/$25 million – The Orioles will have to settle with Cabrera as their main offseason pickup after losing out on Teixeira, Burnett and, quite possibly, Furcal.

23) Randy Johnson – Dodgers, 1 year/$5 million (plus heavy incentives) – The Diamondbacks will want to turn the page, so the former USC Trojan will return to El Lay in his quest for 300 wins.

24) Casey Blake – Indians, 2 years/$14 million – With the Andy Marte experiment a complete bust, the Tribe invites Blake back into the fold.

25) Ivan Rodriguez – Reds, 1 year/$5 million – After wearing out his welcome in Detroit and New York, the Reds will get the future Hall of Famer at a bargain price.

26) Rocco Baldelli – Phillies, 1 year/$3 million (plus heavy incentives) – If this former phenom regains his health, this could be the steal of the offseason.

27) Randy Wolf – Astros, 2 years/$13 million – With health issues surrounding John Maine, don’t be surprised if the Mets make a play for Wolf. The left-hander was excellent down the stretch last season.

28) John Smoltz – Braves, 1 year/$5 million (with heavy incentives) – Probably the last hurrah for this warrior.

29) Trevor Hoffman – Padres, 1 year/$4 million – He just keeps on ticking.

30) Jon Garland – Braves, 1 year/$6.5 million – Even if the Braves do end up landing Jake Peavy, they still will be woefully short on the pitching front. If nothing else, Garland could provide innings in bulk as he looks to enhance his value for the following offseason.

31) Freddy Garcia – Indians, 1 year/$4 million (with heavy incentives) – Garcia is yet another hurler who will hope to use 2009 as a springboard to future riches.

32) Brad Penny – Tigers, 1 year/$5 million (with heavy incentives) – A low risk/high reward move for GM Dave Dombrowski, who knows Penny from their days with the Marlins.

33) Juan Cruz – Tigers, 2 years/$6.5 million – The flame-throwing Cruz has just the power arm Dombrowski covets. He could wind up closing in 2009, especially if Joel Zumaya is still inconsistent or injured.

34) Jim Edmonds – Braves, 1 year/$4.5 million – With CF prospect Jordan Schafer likely gone if the Braves land Peavy from the Padres, Edmonds will be needed to hold down the fort until 21-year-old Gorkys Hernandez ready.

35) Garrett Anderson – Angels, 2 years/$10 million – Can you imagine him in another uniform?

36) Eric Hinske – Rays, 1 year/$2.5 million – Based on Hinske’s 2008 season, this could be yet another bargain for GM Andrew Friedman.

37) Jason Varitek – Red Sox, 2 years/$10 million – With a dearth of catching in their system, Boston will grossly overpay for their rapidly aging captain. However, if GM Theo Epstein swings a deal for some of Texas’ catching surplus, Varitek is likely long gone.

38) Jamie Moyer – Phillies, 1 year/$5 million – The ageless Moyer likely won’t get the two year deal he covets.

39) Mark Kotsay – Red Sox, 1 year/$3.5 million – Kotsay will stay in Beantown, where he ingratiated himself to fans and the front office with his inspired play, albeit at a much lower price.

40) Jerry Hairston Jr. – Reds, 2 years/$4 million – When healthy, Hairston was the best player on the field for the Reds in 2008. He’ll play CF until prospect Drew Stubbs shows he can hit.

41) Ray Durham – Mets, 1 year/$3 million – With Luis Castillo still on the books, the Mets won’t splurge for Orlando Hudson (see above), but Durham would give them a more cost effective option. Plus, he’d be a key bat off the bench.

42) Jeremy Affeldt – Indians, 3 years/$10.5 million – The durable Affeldt would be a godsend for manager Eric Wedge.

43) Braden Looper – Rockies, 2 years/$8 million – Looper and his sinker should fair well in Coors Light and would enable the Rockies to bring their young pitching prospects, namely Jhoulys Chacin, along slowly.

44) Damaso Marte – Cardinals, 3 years/$10 million – Marte could conceivably close if Chris Perez experiences growing pains.

45) Mark Grudzielanek – Brewers, 1 year/$3 million – A tough one to call. The Indians, if they don’t sign Blake, are a possibility, as are the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Astros and even the Mets. The bet here is that he goes to Milwaukee to light a fire under the perennially underachieving Ricke Weeks

46) David Weathers – Mariners, 1 year/$2.5 million – Weathers would be a safety net for a young Seattle bullpen. He could even close if J.J. Putz is traded and Brandon Morrow moves into the starting rotation, as expected.

47) Joe Beimel – Mets, 2 years/$5 million – Hopefully Beimel has more success in Flushing than Scott Schoeneweis.

48) Doug Brocail – Astros, 1 year/$1.75 million – Brocail has no desire to pitch anywhere else.

49) Ken Griffey Jr. – Mariners, 1 year/$5 million – The farewell tour begins.

50) Odalis Perez – Padres, 1 year/$1.5 million – Perez could be a useful #5 starter for many teams, including the penny-pinching Padres.

Off-day

2008-11-04T18:53:00.001-08:00

Happy Election Day, Everybody.....

No posting today. Instead, I'm working on a list of the top 50 free agents and where they'll end up. It should be accessible tomorrow. In the meantime, here's a list of some interesting baseball-related sites you might like to visit:

Baseball Musings -- Excellent site for breaking news and commentary. The founder formerly hosted Baseball Tonight for ESPN.

MLB Rumors -- Fantastic site for up-to-the-minute trade rumors. If it's whispered they hear it. Seriously.

Brewerfan -- A site for everything Brewers. Patrick Ebert of Perfect Game also provides first-rate draft coverage.

The Eddie Kranepool Society -- A blog on everything Mets.

Red Reporter -- Reds news and commentary 24/7. Very pertinent during the Hot Stove season.

Detroit Tigers Weblog -- Everything you ever wanted to know about the Tigers. Again, an excellent site for the winter rumor mill.

I'll add formal links to these sites by the end of the week.

Trade Fair: A Three-way Blockbuster

2008-11-03T08:41:00.000-08:00

The sight of leaves on the ground, jack-o-lanterns in the trash and frost on the windshield can mean only one thing – baseball’s hot stove league is finally upon us. And, let’s be honest, who doesn’t love a good trade rumor or two (or three, or four, or…..well, you get the picture)? So, in an effort to add some drama to our readers’ lives, we here at Infield Chatter will propose countless juicy trade scenarios this offseason. We figure we’ll start off with a doozy….

In his recent Sunday column for the Boston Globe, esteemed baseball writer Nick Cafardo suggested that the Detroit Tigers, anxious to cut a bloated payroll on the heels of a disastrous 74-88 season while filling some obvious holes, will shop slugging outfielder Magglio Ordonez. We think Cafardo’s on to something and have dreamt up a succulent three-way deal involving the Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays.

The Tigers' quest for a shortstop has been well-documented, as has the Brewers' need for a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter (assuming both C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets leave this winter as free agents). In addition, the Rays, despite their magical 2008 campaign, desperately need a power bat – preferably one who can play right field -- to protect inexperienced cleanup hitter Evan Longoria. This leads us to the following proposal:

- The Tigers trade Ordonez and cash (say $6 million per year for three years) to the Rays;
- The Rays trade starter Andy Sonnanstine and minor league pitcher Jeremy Hellickson to the Brewers; and
- The Brewers trade shortstop J.J. Hardy to the Tigers.

How this trade affects Detroit:

As stated above, Detroit craves a shortstop and needs to cut payroll from $139 million, which was second to only to the Yankees in 2008. Though they would be transferring a total of $18 million to the Rays over the next three seasons, the Tigers would still be saving $33 million over that time (assuming Ordonez' 2009-10 options for $18 million p.a. kick in – a likely scenario given that Ordonez would probably have to be enticed to waive his no-trade clause). In Hardy, Detroit would be acquiring a sure-handed, cannon-armed shortstop whose park-adjusted OPS is more than .100 better than the league average in each of the last two seasons. The 26-year-old Hardy would also be a relatively inexpensive option since he’s still two year away from free agency.

How this trade affects Tampa Bay:

As we mentioned earlier, the Rays need some muscle to protect their young cleanup hitter, Evan Longoria (as we saw in the World Series, Carl Crawford and his career SLG of .435 just won’t cut it. The speedy Crawford is much better suited for the 1-or 2-hole). Although Ordonez would cost the Rays $9 million in 2009 and $12 million in 2010 and 2011 after Detroit’s subsidy, owner Stuart Sternberg should have no trouble affording this amount. It's important to realize that the Rays should receive a revenue bump in 2009 as 1st-time playoff teams commonly enjoy a spike in attendance one year after qualifying for the postseason. Ordonez would be well worth the money. A career .312 hitter who has driven in 346 runs the past three years playing half his games in the cavernous Comerica Park, Ordonez would be even a more devastating force following a move to the much cozier confines of Tropicana Field.

The Rays would indeed be giving up two quality arms in Sonnanstine and Hellickson; however, let's look at their pitching depth for a minute. They already have ultra-talented twenty-somethings Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson established at the big league level and David Price, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and rehabbing Jacob McGee closing in quickly. In other words, as solid as Sonnanstine is, he likely won’t be missed.

How this trade affects Milwaukee:

In Sonnanstine, the Brewers would be acquiring a young, innings-eating right-hander who enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2008 with a stingy WHIP of 1.29 and equally impressive K:BB ratio of nearly 3.40. Though Sonnanstine will never be mistaken for proven aces Sheets and Sabathia, he would slide nicely into the middle of a revamped Milwaukee rotation that features young guns Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra in front of him. Even more importantly, Sonnanstine is cheap. He’s not arbitration-eligible until after 2010, which means the Brewers would still have the financial wherewithal to land a Jake Peavy, Derek Lowe, or other more expensive frontline starter who could ease the burden on the youngsters.

Hellickson is a top-flight prospect. Still just 21, the Iowa native split 2008 between Single A and Double A and went 11-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 152 innings. His secondary numbers were even more impressive – a WHIP of 1.10 and otherworldly K:BB ratio of 8.00. Hellickson would instantly become Milwaukee’s top pitching prospect and could join the starting rotation as early as the second half 2009.

The emergence of Alcides Escobar has made Hardy expendable. The 21-year-old Venezuelan is an acrobat in the field and had a breakout 2008 at the plate hitting .328/.363/.434 with 34 steals in Double A.

Friday: Covering the Bases

2008-10-31T15:26:00.000-07:00

Some musings on Halloween Friday…

Congratulations are in order for Royals GM Drayton Moore who made the first boneheaded move of the offseason by trading reliever Leo Nunez to the Marlins for first baseman Mike Jacobs. While the 25-year-old Nunez is no Brad Lidge, he did post a very respectable 2.98 ERA and WHIP of 1.24 in 2008. Nunez will be a cost-effective option for the Marlins in 2009, earning close to the major league minimum salary of $400,000. Jacobs, on the other hand, is terribly overrated and not nearly as cost-efficient. Although Jacobs’ 32 home runs last year will be a welcome addition to a Royals lineup which seriously lacks power, his .299 OBP will be an albatross for a team that was second-to-last in the American League in that category. The left-handed Jacobs is also a liability against southpaws, having hit them at a meager .235/.275/.414 clip in 338 career plate appearances. His mediocrity notwithstanding, Jacobs’ expected 2009 salary of $2-3 million will make him a much more expensive option than incumbent Royals Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – all of whom could easily match his shoddy defense and 2008 OPS of .812 despite earning approximately the league minimum.

From the “We told you so” department: Prior to the start of the World Series we explained how David Price’s left arm would be a difference maker for the Rays in their quest for the title. Too bad their manager Joe Maddon doesn’t read Infield Chatter. Instead of bringing in Price and his electric stuff in the 7th inning of Game 5 after Tampa Bay had tied it 3-3 on Rocco Baldelli’s solo home run, Maddon went with the soft-tossing duo of J.P. Howell and Chad Bradford. The result was a Pat Burrell moon shot off the center field wall for a double followed shortly by Pedro Feliz’ RBI single, which proved to be the game winner. When Price finally did enter the game in the bottom of the 8th, he breezed through the heart of the Phillies order. Next time listen to us, Joe!

Moving the World Series to a neutral site in an effort to combat unruly fall weather is nothing less than a moronic idea. True, the conditions in Philadelphia were miserable, but did that really matter to the 45,000 Phillie fans who were still at the park at 2 AM on Saturday or the same number who braved the elements for hours on Monday before Game 5 was suspended? Of course not. Baseball has always been a sport where local ties run deep. To sever this connection on the eve of baseball’s most grandiose moment would be a tremendous disservice to millions of fans who have supported their teams through the thick and thin of a grueling 162-game season. If anything, MLB should take note of the fact that the Phillies had 16 days off during an October in which they played just 14 games and eliminate some of the excessive days off between games and series. This would shorten the post-season by at least one week and reduce the chances of the World Series being plagued by inclement weather.

The Mariners Start to Right the Ship

2008-10-30T11:18:00.000-07:00

It won’t get the front page publicity of Jake Peavy’s emergence on the trade market, the Mark Teixeira free agent sweepstakes, or even the photos depicting the final stages of the new Yankee Stadium’s construction, but the Mariners’ hiring last week of Jack Zduriencik (pronounced Zur-en-sik) will prove to be one of this off-season’s most important developments. And rightly so.

The 57-year-old Zduriencik had most recently worked as the Brewers’ scouting director and, after C.C. Sabathia, was the individual most responsible for the team’s first playoff birth since 1982. As Milwaukee’s scouting director since 2000, Zduriencik was the man who brought all of the team’s young core into the fold. This includes not just early-round draft picks, such as J.J. Hardy (2nd round, 2001), Prince Fielder (1st round, 2002), Yovani Gallardo (2nd round, 2004), and Ryan Braun (1st round, 2005), but also second-day selections like Corey Hart (11th round, 2000) and Manny Parra (26th round, 2001). Of the 25 players on its NLDS roster, Milwaukee boasted twelve who were home-grown – the second most among the eight teams that advanced to the post-season (the Angels had 17). This, more than any other piece of data, is indicative of the outstanding work done by Zduriencik and his staff over the past eight years.

The importance of Zduriencik’s arrival in Seattle cannot be overstated. With a 61-101 record in 2008 and one of baseball’s worst farm systems (infielder Carlos Triunfel and pitcher Phillippe Aumont will be the only Mariners unanimously included on this winter’s Top 100 Prospects lists), the organization is light years from contending. By bringing in Zduriencik, the organization has thumbed its nose at a mere patch-up job and instead displayed its commitment to a full-out rebuilding process that, if done the right way, should eventually transform the team into a perennial contender in the American League West. Though it remains to be seen how adept Zduriencik will be at procuring talent via trades with other organizations, negotiating with player agents, dealing with the media, and performing the numerous other functions associated with his new job title, it’s plainly evident that he’s a superb scout and first-rate amateur talent evaluator. And that’s exactly what the downtrodden Mariners need right now.

Melvin's Mistake?

2008-10-22T10:27:00.000-07:00

The Milwaukee Brewers last Friday awarded GM Doug Melvin a three-year extension that will keep him in the Beer City through 2012. The move was well-deserved as Melvin, who took over for Dean Taylor at the end of 2002, guided the Brewers to their first playoff appearance in 26 years as well as their first back-to-back winning seasons in 16 years. He’s also presided over what has become one of the game’s premier scouting and player development systems.

Despite Melvin’s accomplishments, he might have made a crucial error last week when he decided not to bring back interim manager Dale Sveum for 2009. Sveum, you might recall, replaced former skipper Ned Yost on September 15th while the Brewers were in the midst of a 3-11 slide which saw them relinquish a seemingly ironclad grip on the Wild Card lead (sources maintain this highly controversial and unprecedented move was carried out at the behest of team owner Mark Attanasio, not Melvin). Under Sveum, Milwaukee posted a 7-5 record and edged out the Mets for the National League’s final post-season birth on the final day of the regular season. Milwaukee’s celebration was short-lived, however, as the Phillies beat them in four games in the NLDS.

Although 16 games is indeed a small sample size, the 44-year-old Sveum displayed more than enough managerial moxie to warrant a chance to guide the Brewers in 2009 and beyond. The former infielder proved to be a calming influence in a young clubhouse that had experienced much infighting and turmoil under the stewardship of the high-strung Yost. He also garnered praise as an able strategist whose decisions to pitch ace C.C. Sabathia on three days rest, replace the underachieving Rickie Weeks with veteran stalwart Ray Durham and remove the gassed Manny Parra from the starting rotation were all instrumental in reversing the Brewers’ fortunes during the team’s traumatic second consecutive September swoon. And, let’s not forget the none-too-important familiarity concept – in his three years on the coaching staff Sveum was a key figure for Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart and the rest of the young Brewers as they made a successful transition to the major leagues. Retaining Sveum would inject the Milwaukee clubhouse with much-needed stability as the team’s young core continues to mature and faces much higher expectations in coming seasons.

In his search for the Brewers’ new manager, Melvin has supposedly set the bar high. He’s looking for not just an experienced big league manager, but one who has also enjoyed a high degree of success. Multiple sources have confirmed that Melvin has zeroed in on the following five candidates:

1) Buck Showalter
2) Willie Randolph
3) Ken Macha
4) Mike Hargrove
5) Bob Brenly

Their compelling resumes notwithstanding, all five candidates have major warts. Showalter has displayed an excellent baseball mind and essentially built the expansion Diamondbacks from the ground up. However, in each of his three managerial stints – New York, Arizona and Texas – Showalter was known as a tightly wound control freak who had trouble connecting with today’s player. A six-time all-star as a player and long-time coach with the Yankee dynasty of the late 1990’s, Randolph presided over the Mets’ record-setting collapse in 2007 when they failed to qualify for the playoffs despite enjoying a seven game lead with just 17 to play. Macha and Hargrove have enjoyed sustained managerial success, but both left their last posts under inauspicious circumstances. By the time Macha was dismissed from Oakland at the end of 2006, he was known as a mere puppet of A’s GM Billy Beane who had lost his grip of the team (current Brewers catcher and clubhouse ringleader Jason Kendall included); Hargrove’s departure was even more bizarre. He “retired” from the Mariners’ post in the middle of 2007 citing burnout even though the team was in contention. Finally, there’s Brenly, whose 2001 World Series win with Arizona makes him the most qualified of the five. Yet, those close to the former catcher say his sweetheart broadcast deal with Cubs carrier WGN would be a substantial impediment to any future managing gig.

It’s obvious that Sveum’s resume isn’t as glitzy as any of his potential successors. He never put together an expansion team like Showalter, never was selected to the all-star team as a player like Randolph, and hasn’t enjoyed long-term success as a big league manager like Macha, Hargrove or Brenly. But what Sveum did do was take over the controls of a Brewers ship that was sinking fast and steer it to safety while earning the respect of an entire roster in the process. For this he should have been rewarded but wasn’t. He definitely deserved better. So did Brewer fans.

The Price is Right

2008-10-20T12:41:00.000-07:00

Following the dramatic conclusion of Game 7 of the ALCS Sunday night, it’s evident that rookie southpaw David Price will play a significant role for the Rays in the upcoming World Series – a development that could have dire consequences for the National League champion Phillies. Coming out of the bullpen in the late innings, Price’s 96 mph fastball and biting 88 mph slider will not only neutralize Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, the potent 3-4 combo in the Philadelphia lineup, but will also render left-handed DH/pinch-hitters Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, and Geoff Jenkins practically useless. With journeyman Chris Coste the only right-handed bat available, Charlie Manuel’s hands will be tied.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Price, less than two months into his major league career, will be in a position to play such a crucial role in the Fall Classic. Any astute baseball fan realizes that come October bats are slow (especially in this post-performance enhancing drug era) and therefore vulnerable to high heat and biting breaking balls darting through the zone. The list of young power relievers who have made their mark in the postseason is virtually endless. Mariano Rivera (Yankees, 1996), Francisco Rodriguez (Angels, 2002), and Adam Wainwright (Cardinals, 2006) are just three of the most recent flame-throwers whose high-octane arsenals helped seal the deal in highly leveraged situations and propelled their teams to the Promised Land. And now David Price stands poised to join them.

True, the Phillies have a more lethal and balanced lineup, as well as young stud Cole Hamels (whose 38 career wins at 24 are 15 more than Johan Santana had at the same age) atop the rotation. However, Price’s ability to neuter Philadelphia’s power bats in the late innings combined with a deeper pitching staff and home field advantage should bode well for Joe Maddon & Co. The result: the Rays win their first ever championship in seven games.

Play Ball!

2008-10-18T16:43:00.000-07:00

Hey Everybody, it's Harris. With the Leveraged Finance market in the tank, I've decided to put my spare time to good use and create this blog. I'm hopeful it will provide me with a useful forum to express my thoughts on all things baseball -- from the soon-to-be-commencing Hot Stove League to College Baseball and everything in between. Feel free to post your comments.