Is the Tigers’ Rebuild Already Stuck in Neutral?

(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items.  For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era.  Here's the Amazon link:  goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)

It was supposed to be easy.  Take all the young talent acquired from the trades of established veterans, combine it with an infusion of several years’ worth of premium picks (the result of multiple consecutive 100-loss seasons, of course), fill in any remaining holes with strategic free agent signings, and then, finally, plan the World Series parade.  This was the exact blueprint the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros used en route to respective 2016 and 2017 World Series victories, and the Detroit Tigers would employ the same plan to build juggernaut from scratch.  Or so they thought.

Given that it’s been barely a year since Tigers GM Al Avila publicly set the Tigers on their new course, it’s far too early to panic.  However, a number of serious issues have surfaced that have led more than one analyst to question whether this iteration of the reconstruction will be the one that comes to fruition.

The biggest problem with Detroit’s rebuild—and the way in which it completely differs from what happened in Chicago and Houston—is that it is based almost entirely around young pitching, a risky proposition given the alarmingly high attrition rate of baby-faced hurlers. 

From the onset of their tenure in Chicago, Theo Epstein & Co understood the potential pitfalls surrounding young pitchers and therefore opted to instead select the likes of OF Albert Almora, 3B Kris Bryant, and OF Kyle Schwarber with the Cubs’ first-round picks.  And the Astros followed a similar route, adding SS Carlos Correa and 3B Alex Bregman to a young positional corps that already featured 2B Jose Altuve and OF George Springer (though, in fairness, it must be noted that Houston failed miserably with the selections of pitchers Mark Appel and Brady Aiken). 

All of the aforementioned young hitters played a big role in the Cubs and Astros’ championship runs, while the pitching chores for both clubs were for the most part handled by guys who were mid-career acquisitions and thus not susceptible to the high attrition rates that plague young pitchers.

Think about this:  12 of the 17 postseason starts made by Cubs pitchers in 2016 were made by guys Chicago acquired after their age 23 season.  Similarly, only seven of Houston’s 18 postseason games in 2017 were started by pitchers acquired by the ‘Stros prior to their 24^th birthday.

The Tigers, apparently, haven’t read the memo and are already beginning to experience the risks associated with their strategy of building around arms as opposed to bats.  

Franklin Perez, 20, the headliner of last August’s trade which sent long-time ace Justin Verlander to Houston, boasts three above-average pitches and has been viewed by many as a future #2 starter.  However, the young Venezuelan missed the first half of this season with a lat strain before getting lit up to the tune of a 6.52 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 19.1 rehab innings.  And this week Detroit shut Perez down for the remainder of the season with shoulder inflammation.  Though Perez is still extremely young and boasts excellent stuff, his struggles this year have raised doubts surrounding his long-term durability.

Alex Faedo, Detroit’s first-round selection last year, has had a decent season if you look at the numbers.  But if you talk to scouts, they’ll say that Faedo’s fastball has fallen several ticks to the 90-91 MPH range and his changeup is a 45 on the standard 20-80 scouting scale.  This is a recipe for bullpen arm, assuming nothing changes.

With some of Detroit’s best pitching prospects taking their lumps, the onus has fallen to the organization’s young hitters to pick up the slack.  The problem is, however, that the team simply does not boast the high-end positional talent necessary to kickstart a successful rebuild.

Christin Stewart is the Tigers’ “premier” power prospect and supposed left fielder of the future, but his mediocre .256/.340/.470 slash line entering play on Friday as a 24-year-old at Triple A Toledo does not bode well for the future.  In addition, the lead-footed, defensively-challenged Stewart will likely be a liability in the vast pasture that is Comerica Park’s outfield.

Stewart’s teammate, Dawel Lugo, was the key return piece in the J.D. Martinez trade to Arizona.  Detroit’s front office was hopeful that Lugo would step into the 2019 lineup at second base, but the 23-year-old’s .268/.280/.349 effort this season has sparked fears that he may be nothing more than Dixon Machado in disguise.

Daz Cameron was another player Detroit obtained in exchange for Verlander.  After two rough years following his signing by Houston in 2015, Cameron enjoyed a renaissance last season.  What followed was a subpar .259/.346/.370 performance in 246 plate appearances at High A Lakeland until he was unexpectedly promoted to AA Erie.  Although Cameron’s .301/.385/.510 at Double A represents a drastic improvement over his performance at Lakeland, beware of a red herring.  Not only is his .376 BABIP unsustainable in the long run, but his total numbers have been greatly inflated by the fact that he plays half his games within the very cozy confines of UPMC Park—his road numbers (.790 OPS, no home runs) pale in comparison with what he’s done at home (.977 OPS, five home runs).  However, Cameron should receive credit for improving his strikeout rate from 28.6 percent to 22.5 percent since the promotion.

Jake Rogers, 23, was the final piece to the Verlander trade.  Always regarded as a defense-first catcher, there was optimism after a 2017 campaign that saw him hit .261 with 18 homers spread out across 422 at bats between Low and High A ball.  Unfortunately, Rogers has experienced a serious regression this year, hitting just .201 with 90 strikeouts in approximately 300 plate appearances. 

Of all the Tigers’ positional prospects in full-season ball, Isaac Paredes is the best bet to eventually make an impact at the big-league level.  Just 19, Paredes has already been promoted to Erie, where’s he’s continued to show the uncanny ability to barrel the baseball while keeping his strikeouts to a minimum.  However, at 5-11 and 225 pounds, conditioning is Paredes’ biggest problem.  It’s a near certainty that he’ll have to move off of shortstop, and if he’s not careful his propensity to add bad weight will prohibit him from reaching his lofty ceiling.

Detroit’s second-round selection of 1B Reynaldo Rivera last year was viewed as an aggressive overdraft, with many Tigers’ followers concerned that Rivera would evolve into a left-handed hitting version of Ryan Strieby.  Rivera’s performance this season has done nothing to assuage those fears.  The 6-06, 250-pound Rivera’s a one-dimensional player, and his .750 OPS combined with a K-rate in excess of 26 percent while being old for Low A ball makes it unlikely that he’ll develop into a major contributor for the parent club.

With Detroit’s main prospects having a down year, the disappointment that emanated from Tigerland when the organization failed to complete a major deal prior to the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline was understandable.  Although many fans blamed Avila for Detroit’s inactivity, it was not Avila’s fault—the Tigers have simply run out of good players to trade.  Despite an excellent first two seasons, untapped potential, and multiple years of team control remaining, righthander Michael Fulmer has regressed this season and has an injury history to go along with a violent delivery.  And OF Nick Castellanos, his well-honed offensive game notwithstanding, is barely a 2.5-bWAR player because of shoddy defense and poor speed.  Going forward, Castellanos’ trade value will be further hindered by the fact that he’ll be a free agent following the 2019 season thus be viewed as a mere rental. 

Ironically, the frustrations the Tigers experienced at during this week’s trade deadline have been compounded by Detroit’s unexpected “success” this season.  You read that correctly—instead of taking a nosedive and again securing the first pick in next year’s draft, the Tigers have been semi-competitive and would be awarded the eighth selection in the 2019 draft if this season ended Thursday night.  And while the difference between the first and eighth pick may seem like semantics to some baseball fans, those seven picks in between could mean the difference between Bobby Witt Jr. (a potential franchise-chasing, five-tool shortstop) and Shea Langeliers (a projected above-average big-league regular behind the dish).

Despite all the negatives cited in this column, there is still a glimmer of hope—albeit, just a glimmer—that this version of a rebuild will produce a consistent contender. 

Maybe this year’s first overall draft pick, Casey Mize, will beat the odds and enjoy a long, fruitful career as a splitter-firing Masahiro Tanaka clone. 

Maybe this year’s second-round pick, Parker Meadows, will fulfill his vast potential and one day become a 30-30 center fielder. 

Maybe righthander Matt Manning will continue his impressive ascent up the minor league ladder and team with Mize to give Detroit a two-headed monster at the front of its rotation in several years.  

Maybe Paredes will shed 35 pounds and be the A.L.’s next great two-way shortstop. 

Maybe Fulmer will return fully recovered in 2019 and be the centerpiece of a blockbuster at next year’s deadline that brings in a bounty of top prospects. 

Maybe Detroit will lose 108 games next season and select Arkansas slugger Heston Kjerstad with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft.

And maybe, just maybe, they’ll have to plan a World Series parade down Woodward. 

Or maybe you’ll read a column five years from now urging Detroit to trade Mize for a haul of prospects.