(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items. For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era. Here's the Amazon link: goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)
It was supposed to be easy.
Take all the young talent acquired from the trades of established
veterans, combine it with an infusion of several years’ worth of premium picks
(the result of multiple consecutive 100-loss seasons, of course), fill in any
remaining holes with strategic free agent signings, and then, finally, plan the
World Series parade. This was the exact
blueprint the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros used en route to respective 2016
and 2017 World Series victories, and the Detroit Tigers would employ the same
plan to build juggernaut from scratch.
Or so they thought.
Given that it’s been barely a year since Tigers GM Al Avila
publicly set the Tigers on their new course, it’s far too early to panic. However, a number of serious issues have
surfaced that have led more than one analyst to question whether this iteration
of the reconstruction will be the one that comes to fruition.
The biggest problem with Detroit’s rebuild—and the way in
which it completely differs from what happened in Chicago and Houston—is that
it is based almost entirely around young pitching, a risky proposition given
the alarmingly high attrition rate of baby-faced hurlers.
From the onset of their tenure in Chicago, Theo Epstein
& Co understood the potential pitfalls surrounding young pitchers and
therefore opted to instead select the likes of OF Albert Almora, 3B Kris Bryant, and OF Kyle Schwarber with the Cubs’ first-round picks. And the Astros followed a similar route,
adding SS Carlos Correa
and 3B Alex Bregman to a young positional corps
that already featured 2B Jose Altuve and OF George Springer (though, in fairness, it must be noted
that Houston failed miserably with the selections of pitchers Mark Appel and Brady Aiken).
All of the aforementioned young hitters played a big role in
the Cubs and Astros’ championship runs, while the pitching chores for both clubs
were for the most part handled by guys who were mid-career acquisitions and
thus not susceptible to the high attrition rates that plague young pitchers.
Think about this: 12
of the 17 postseason starts made by Cubs pitchers in 2016 were made by guys Chicago
acquired after their age 23 season.
Similarly, only seven of Houston’s 18 postseason games in 2017 were started
by pitchers acquired by the ‘Stros prior to their 24th birthday.
The Tigers, apparently, haven’t read the memo and are
already beginning to experience the risks associated with their strategy of
building around arms as opposed to bats.
Franklin Perez, 20, the headliner of last
August’s trade which sent long-time ace Justin Verlander to Houston, boasts
three above-average pitches and has been viewed by many as a future #2
starter. However, the young Venezuelan
missed the first half of this season with a lat strain before getting lit up to
the tune of a 6.52 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 19.1 rehab innings. And this week Detroit shut Perez down for the
remainder of the season with shoulder inflammation. Though Perez is still extremely young and
boasts excellent stuff, his struggles this year have raised doubts surrounding
his long-term durability.
Alex Faedo, Detroit’s
first-round selection last year, has had a decent season if you look at the
numbers. But if you talk to scouts, they’ll
say that Faedo’s fastball has fallen several ticks to the 90-91 MPH range and
his changeup is a 45 on the standard 20-80 scouting scale. This is a recipe for bullpen arm, assuming
nothing changes.
With some of Detroit’s best pitching prospects taking their
lumps, the onus has fallen to the organization’s young hitters to pick up the
slack. The problem is, however, that the
team simply does not boast the high-end positional talent necessary to
kickstart a successful rebuild.
Christin Stewart is the Tigers’
“premier” power prospect and supposed left fielder of the future, but his
mediocre .256/.340/.470 slash line entering play on Friday as a 24-year-old at
Triple A Toledo does not bode well for the future. In addition, the lead-footed, defensively-challenged
Stewart will likely be a liability in the vast pasture that is Comerica Park’s
outfield.
Stewart’s teammate, Dawel Lugo,
was the key return piece in the J.D. Martinez trade
to Arizona. Detroit’s front office was
hopeful that Lugo would step into the 2019 lineup at second base, but the
23-year-old’s .268/.280/.349 effort this season has sparked fears that he may
be nothing more than Dixon Machado in disguise.
Daz Cameron was another
player Detroit obtained in exchange for Verlander. After two rough years following his signing
by Houston in 2015, Cameron enjoyed a renaissance last season. What followed was a subpar .259/.346/.370
performance in 246 plate appearances at High A Lakeland until he was unexpectedly
promoted to AA Erie. Although Cameron’s .301/.385/.510
at Double A represents a drastic improvement over his performance at Lakeland,
beware of a red herring. Not only is his
.376 BABIP unsustainable in the long run, but his total numbers have been
greatly inflated by the fact that he plays half his games within the very cozy
confines of UPMC Park—his road numbers (.790 OPS, no home runs) pale in comparison
with what he’s done at home (.977 OPS, five home runs). However, Cameron should receive credit for
improving his strikeout rate from 28.6 percent to 22.5 percent since the
promotion.
Jake Rogers, 23, was the
final piece to the Verlander trade. Always
regarded as a defense-first catcher, there was optimism after a 2017 campaign that
saw him hit .261 with 18 homers spread out across 422 at bats between Low and
High A ball. Unfortunately, Rogers has
experienced a serious regression this year, hitting just .201 with 90
strikeouts in approximately 300 plate appearances.
Of all the Tigers’ positional prospects in full-season ball,
Isaac Paredes is the best bet to eventually make
an impact at the big-league level. Just
19, Paredes has already been promoted to Erie, where’s he’s continued to show
the uncanny ability to barrel the baseball while keeping his strikeouts to a
minimum. However, at 5-11 and 225
pounds, conditioning is Paredes’ biggest problem. It’s a near certainty that he’ll have to move
off of shortstop, and if he’s not careful his propensity to add bad weight will
prohibit him from reaching his lofty ceiling.
Detroit’s second-round selection of 1B Reynaldo Rivera last year was viewed as an aggressive
overdraft, with many Tigers’ followers concerned that Rivera would evolve into
a left-handed hitting version of Ryan Strieby. Rivera’s performance this season has done
nothing to assuage those fears. The
6-06, 250-pound Rivera’s a one-dimensional player, and his .750 OPS combined
with a K-rate in excess of 26 percent while being old for Low A ball makes it
unlikely that he’ll develop into a major contributor for the parent club.
With Detroit’s main prospects having a down year, the
disappointment that emanated from Tigerland when the organization failed to
complete a major deal prior to the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline
was understandable. Although many fans
blamed Avila for Detroit’s inactivity, it was not Avila’s fault—the Tigers have
simply run out of good players to trade.
Despite an excellent first two seasons, untapped potential, and multiple
years of team control remaining, righthander Michael Fulmer has regressed this season and has an injury history to go along
with a violent delivery. And OF Nick Castellanos, his well-honed offensive game
notwithstanding, is barely a 2.5-bWAR player because of shoddy defense and poor
speed. Going forward, Castellanos’ trade
value will be further hindered by the fact that he’ll be a free agent following
the 2019 season thus be viewed as a mere rental.
Ironically, the frustrations the Tigers experienced at during
this week’s trade deadline have been compounded by Detroit’s unexpected “success”
this season. You read that correctly—instead
of taking a nosedive and again securing the first pick in next year’s draft,
the Tigers have been semi-competitive and would be awarded the eighth selection
in the 2019 draft if this season ended Thursday night. And while the difference between the first
and eighth pick may seem like semantics to some baseball fans, those seven
picks in between could mean the difference between Bobby Witt Jr. (a potential franchise-chasing, five-tool shortstop) and Shea Langeliers (a projected above-average big-league
regular behind the dish).
Despite all the negatives cited in this column, there is
still a glimmer of hope—albeit, just a glimmer—that this version of a rebuild
will produce a consistent contender.
Maybe this year’s first overall draft pick, Casey Mize, will beat the odds and enjoy a long,
fruitful career as a splitter-firing Masahiro Tanaka clone.
Maybe this year’s second-round pick, Parker Meadows, will fulfill his vast potential and one day become
a 30-30 center fielder.
Maybe righthander Matt Manning will
continue his impressive ascent up the minor league ladder and team with Mize to
give Detroit a two-headed monster at the front of its rotation in several years.
Maybe Paredes will shed 35 pounds and be the A.L.’s next
great two-way shortstop.
Maybe Fulmer will return fully recovered in 2019 and be the
centerpiece of a blockbuster at next year’s deadline that brings in a bounty of
top prospects.
Maybe Detroit will lose 108 games next season and select Arkansas
slugger Heston Kjerstad with the first overall
pick in the 2020 draft.
And maybe, just maybe, they’ll have to plan a World Series
parade down Woodward.
Or maybe you’ll read a column five years from now urging
Detroit to trade Mize for a haul of prospects.
