Despite its relatively comfortable five-game divisional lead
in the A.L. Central (the largest margin in baseball) heading into Friday’s action,
the Cleveland Indians are a flawed club, plagued by holes in the lineup and
bullpen that will spark an early exit from the Oktoberfest if they’re not
addressed by the July 31st trade deadline.
Much like last season, Manager Terry Francona’s squad has
reaped the benefits of playing in MLB’s least competitive division, where the
Twins have been maddeningly inconsistent, and the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox
are in various stages of lengthy rebuilds.
However, the Indians’ grace period will end in the postseason when they’ll
have to face juggernauts like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees.
The first order of business for Indians’ President Chris
Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff should be to plug the club’s leaky bullpen,
which is second-to-last in the A.L. with a 5.42 ERA and has been especially taxed
since stud reliever Andrew Miller went on the DL with a knee injury. In drawing up possible solutions to
Cleveland’s bullpen woes, it’s vital to acknowledge the organization’s payroll
limitations in addition to the fact that the club will also need to save some
powder to bolster its lineup.
The first move the Cleveland brain trust should consider is one
that doesn’t cost anything in terms of talent or money—shifting starter Mike Clevinger
to the bullpen, where he’d eventually team up with Miller to give Francona two
shutdown setup guys capable of multi-inning stints. Clevinger could also become the successor to
closer Cody Allen or Miller, both of whom are set to depart as free agents
after this season.
Clevinger’s already-filthy stuff should transition well to
the pen, where the velocity on his fourseamer will likely tick up from
its current average of 93.9 MPH and he’ll be able to rely more on his effective
curveball. Also, as Clevinger’s reverse-platoon splits indicate, Francona would
be able to count on him against both lefties and righties in late-inning,
high-leverage situations.
Cleveland’s replacement for Clevinger in the rotation should
also come from within. 23-year-old Shane Bieber has cruised through the minors in just two years, displaying pinpoint
control and an effective four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that scrapes
the mid-90’s. Just how good has Bieber
been? In 274 minor league innings, he’s
posted a ridiculous 2.20 ERA and an equally-outrageous 255/18 K/BB ratio.
As much as we like Clevinger as a multi-inning power
reliever, adding him to the bullpen would not be enough to end the Tribe’s late
inning misery. Cleveland should target
another reliever, and, if possible, do so without substantially increasing
payroll. So, while the Indians should fix
their gaze in the direction of San Diego, they shouldn’t do so with the
intention of landing Brad Hand, everyone’s favorite trade target. Instead, Cleveland should set its sights on righthander Kirby Yates, who won’t demand nearly the prospect haul that Hand would
and whose $1.1 million salary would easily fit into the Tribe’s budget.
Though he doesn’t carry the same cache as Hand, Yates could still
emerge as a difference maker for Cleveland.
He’s been murder on right-handed hitters, who’ve posted a miniscule .263
OPS against the native Hawaiian without even delivering an extra-base hit in 59
plate appearances. In addition, his FIP
of 2.43 is a harbinger of more good things to come.
Unfortunately, Cleveland’s deficiencies are not limited to its
bullpen. Although the Indians rank third
in the A.L. in home runs and fourth in slugging and runs scored, the Tribe’s
offense is unbalanced with a disproportionate amount of production generated by
the Francisco Lindor-Michael Brantley-Jose Ramirez troika. That threesome has put up a .297/.363/.550 slash
line while the Indians’ other hitters have slashed a paltry .233/.311/.383. If Cleveland is to have any chance against lethal
playoff pitching, it will have to lengthen the sweet spot of its lineup.
The Orioles will attract the attention of every team looking
to add some punch at the deadline. Not
only do the O’s boast Manny Machado, arguably the best hitter ever available at
the mid-season trade bazaar, but also Adam Jones. No longer a viable option in center field,
Jones can still adequately man a corner and is on pace for his seventh boWAR of at least 3.0 in the last nine
seasons. Cleveland should pursue both in
a trade.
Plugging Machado into the Indians lineup at the hot corner would
enable Francona to shift Ramirez to second base, where he rates as excellent,
and move Jason Kipnis and his .611 OPS to the bench. This would not only give Cleveland the best all-round
infield in baseball, but also an unparalleled top of its lineup.
While Jones wouldn’t have the same impact as Machado, he’d
be a substantial upgrade over the cast of characters Francona has penciled into
the lineup in the corner outfield.
Jones’ OPS+ of 114 easily exceeds the 56 posted by Brandon Guyer, the 55
put up by Rajai Davis, and the 43 Melky Cabrera delivered before he was
released.
Even though they’d be just half-season rentals, acquiring
Machado and Jones would cost the Indians a hefty prospect package that would probably
include at least one of catcher Francisco Mejia, righthander Triston McKenzie,
and outfielder Conner Capel. But the Indians’
most recent draft class, assessed by many insiders to be among the best in MLB,
and the organization’s strong presence in Latin America would help offset the
loss of some of the organization’s best minor league talent.
The acquisition of Machado and Jones would come at a
substantial monetary cost, with approximately $20 million being added to the
books on a pro rata basis (assuming the trade was made tomorrow). This hefty amount would be in stark contrast
to the $4 million the Indians took on when they added Jay Bruce last year and $4
million the team assumed when it traded for Miller and Guyer in 2016.
Before ruling out the Tribe’s acquisition of Machado and
Jones due to its prohibitive cost, it’s important to realize that this small
market club’s window won’t be open forever.
In fact, rotation stalwarts Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco will be
eligible to leave as free agents after the 2020 season, while ace Corey Kluber
and Lindor’s contracts expire after 2021.
And don’t forget about Miller and Allen’s likely departure after this
year.
It’s been 70 years since a World Series flag was last hoisted on the banks of Lake Erie. And
if the Indians don’t make the necessary changes in the weeks leading up to the
trade deadline, that unfortunate streak will continue indefinitely.
