The Cleveland Indians are far from a Finished Product

Despite its relatively comfortable five-game divisional lead in the A.L. Central (the largest margin in baseball) heading into Friday’s action, the Cleveland Indians are a flawed club, plagued by holes in the lineup and bullpen that will spark an early exit from the Oktoberfest if they’re not addressed by the July 31^st trade deadline. 

Much like last season, Manager Terry Francona’s squad has reaped the benefits of playing in MLB’s least competitive division, where the Twins have been maddeningly inconsistent, and the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox are in various stages of lengthy rebuilds.  However, the Indians’ grace period will end in the postseason when they’ll have to face juggernauts like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees. 

The first order of business for Indians’ President Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff should be to plug the club’s leaky bullpen, which is second-to-last in the A.L. with a 5.42 ERA and has been especially taxed since stud reliever Andrew Miller went on the DL with a knee injury.  In drawing up possible solutions to Cleveland’s bullpen woes, it’s vital to acknowledge the organization’s payroll limitations in addition to the fact that the club will also need to save some powder to bolster its lineup.

The first move the Cleveland brain trust should consider is one that doesn’t cost anything in terms of talent or money—shifting starter Mike Clevinger to the bullpen, where he’d eventually team up with Miller to give Francona two shutdown setup guys capable of multi-inning stints.  Clevinger could also become the successor to closer Cody Allen or Miller, both of whom are set to depart as free agents after this season.

Clevinger’s already-filthy stuff should transition well to the pen, where the velocity on his fourseamer will likely tick up from its current average of 93.9 MPH and he’ll be able to rely more on his effective curveball. Also, as Clevinger’s reverse-platoon splits indicate, Francona would be able to count on him against both lefties and righties in late-inning, high-leverage situations.   

Cleveland’s replacement for Clevinger in the rotation should also come from within.  23-year-old Shane Bieber has cruised through the minors in just two years, displaying pinpoint control and an effective four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that scrapes the mid-90’s.  Just how good has Bieber been?  In 274 minor league innings, he’s posted a ridiculous 2.20 ERA and an equally-outrageous 255/18 K/BB ratio. 

As much as we like Clevinger as a multi-inning power reliever, adding him to the bullpen would not be enough to end the Tribe’s late inning misery.  Cleveland should target another reliever, and, if possible, do so without substantially increasing payroll.  So, while the Indians should fix their gaze in the direction of San Diego, they shouldn’t do so with the intention of landing Brad Hand, everyone’s favorite trade target.  Instead, Cleveland should set its sights on righthander Kirby Yates, who won’t demand nearly the prospect haul that Hand would and whose $1.1 million salary would easily fit into the Tribe’s budget.

Though he doesn’t carry the same cache as Hand, Yates could still emerge as a difference maker for Cleveland.  He’s been murder on right-handed hitters, who’ve posted a miniscule .263 OPS against the native Hawaiian without even delivering an extra-base hit in 59 plate appearances.  In addition, his FIP of 2.43 is a harbinger of more good things to come.

Unfortunately, Cleveland’s deficiencies are not limited to its bullpen.  Although the Indians rank third in the A.L. in home runs and fourth in slugging and runs scored, the Tribe’s offense is unbalanced with a disproportionate amount of production generated by the Francisco Lindor-Michael Brantley-Jose Ramirez troika.  That threesome has put up a .297/.363/.550 slash line while the Indians’ other hitters have slashed a paltry .233/.311/.383.  If Cleveland is to have any chance against lethal playoff pitching, it will have to lengthen the sweet spot of its lineup.

The Orioles will attract the attention of every team looking to add some punch at the deadline.  Not only do the O’s boast Manny Machado, arguably the best hitter ever available at the mid-season trade bazaar, but also Adam Jones.  No longer a viable option in center field, Jones can still adequately man a corner and is on pace for his seventh boWAR of at least 3.0 in the last nine seasons.  Cleveland should pursue both in a trade.

Plugging Machado into the Indians lineup at the hot corner would enable Francona to shift Ramirez to second base, where he rates as excellent, and move Jason Kipnis and his .611 OPS to the bench.  This would not only give Cleveland the best all-round infield in baseball, but also an unparalleled top of its lineup.

While Jones wouldn’t have the same impact as Machado, he’d be a substantial upgrade over the cast of characters Francona has penciled into the lineup in the corner outfield.  Jones’ OPS+ of 114 easily exceeds the 56 posted by Brandon Guyer, the 55 put up by Rajai Davis, and the 43 Melky Cabrera delivered before he was released.

Even though they’d be just half-season rentals, acquiring Machado and Jones would cost the Indians a hefty prospect package that would probably include at least one of catcher Francisco Mejia, righthander Triston McKenzie, and outfielder Conner Capel.  But the Indians’ most recent draft class, assessed by many insiders to be among the best in MLB, and the organization’s strong presence in Latin America would help offset the loss of some of the organization’s best minor league talent. 

The acquisition of Machado and Jones would come at a substantial monetary cost, with approximately $20 million being added to the books on a pro rata basis (assuming the trade was made tomorrow).  This hefty amount would be in stark contrast to the $4 million the Indians took on when they added Jay Bruce last year and $4 million the team assumed when it traded for Miller and Guyer in 2016.

Before ruling out the Tribe’s acquisition of Machado and Jones due to its prohibitive cost, it’s important to realize that this small market club’s window won’t be open forever.  In fact, rotation stalwarts Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco will be eligible to leave as free agents after the 2020 season, while ace Corey Kluber and Lindor’s contracts expire after 2021.  And don’t forget about Miller and Allen’s likely departure after this year. 

It’s been 70 years since a World Series flag was last hoisted on the banks of Lake Erie.  And if the Indians don’t make the necessary changes in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, that unfortunate streak will continue indefinitely.