With MLB’s customary mid-summer
trade winds starting to gust as we approach the July 31st non-waiver
trade deadline, playoff contenders are once again scouring the market for
pitching reinforcements that they hope will turn World Series dreams into
reality come October. Although the Los
Angeles Angels of Anaheim open play on Friday a distant 13.5 games behind the
A.L. West-leading Houston Astros and 12 games in back of the Mariners, who are in
pole position for the second wild card, don’t be shocked if the Halos
aggressively pursue a headline pitching addition as well as other roster
enhancements.
At 38-51, the Detroit Tigers are
buried in the standings and in the middle of a lengthy rebuild. Thus, as Crazy Eddie used to say in the
1980’s, everything must go. “Everything”
in this case includes Michael Fulmer, Detroit’s ace, and Nick Castellanos, its third-place hitter and
right fielder.
The Trade: The Tigers trade Fulmer and Castellanos to
the Angels for 1B Matt Thaiss, OF Brandon Marsh, and RHP Griffin Canning.
What the Angels are getting: A frontline
starter to aid a beleaguered rotation and a #3 hitter to slot behind Mike Trout. While Fulmer’s 2018 numbers suggest that he hasn’t
enjoyed the same success as his 2016 Rookie of the Year effort or last year, he
still ranks 36th in Fangraphs WAR among MLB starting pitchers (thanks, Kurt Mensching),
and he’s been posting career-high velocities on both his four seamer and sinker. The 25-year-old would instantly become the
ace of the Angels’ rotation and bolster a pitching corps that has been ravaged
by injuries—six Angel pitchers have already underwent arm surgeries so far this
year.
Castellanos would give Angels Manager
Mike Scioscia a lethal bat in the 3-hole.
His .305/.356/.519 slash line and 3.0 oWAR ensure that he’d be a massive
upgrade over incumbent RF Kole Calhoun, whose .497 OPS ranks last in the A.L. at the position.
Even if the Angels are unable to
catch the Astros or Mariners this season, this trade would satisfy GM Billy
Eppler’s main objective, which is to put the Halos in the best possible
position to win before Trout’s contract expires after 2020. Castellanos won’t become a free agent until
after next season, while Fulmer will not be eligible to leave until after 2022.
What the Tigers are getting: Detroit GM Al
Avila is ssensible enough to realize that he’d never be able to pry OF Jo Adell, the crown jewel
of the Angels system, away from southern California. However, Thaiss, Marsh, and Canning are all
highly-coveted prospects and their arrival in Detroit would
greatly accelerate the Tigers’ rebuild.
Thaiss, 23, is a hitting machine
who’s delivered at every minor league level and is now adding power to his
game, as evidenced by his .223 isolated power (ISO) at AA and AAA this season. With Victor Martinez likely retiring in October and Miguel Cabrera probably
relegated to DH next year, Thaiss would enjoy a clear path to Comerica Park.
Marsh is the dynamo of the
deal. Just 20, he’s still more
projection over performance but that gap has closed considerably in 2018. A left-handed hitter, the 6-04 Marsh still
has holes in his swing, but scouts are almost unanimous in the belief that
Marsh could be a perennial .280 hitter who belts at least 20 home runs a
season. On defense, Marsh has a center
fielder’s range but enough arm to play right field.
Canning, a second rounder in the
2017 draft, fell because of injury concerns that proved to be unfounded. He’s shot up three levels this season as a
velocity spike has enabled him to throw his fastball into the mid-90’s and his
three other offerings all rate as at least major-league average. Canning’s build, stuff, and superb command
have evoked some comparisons to Zack Greinke; however, other evaluators view him as a solid #3
starter. Nonetheless, he’d be a great
add to Detroit’s already bountiful collection of pitching prospects.
13 comments:
For the prospects you mentioned you may get Castellanos. I don't think it is enough to get Fulmer. I know it isn't enough to get both. I think you are dreaming. Machado should be traded within the next week. Castellanos has 1.5 more years of control so he should be worth an amount similar to Machado. Fullmer still has 4 more years of control. His annual WAR is about 3. Hard to let him go for less than what Baltimore will receive for Machado.
By your definition an Ace and a #3 hole hitter for two prospects on the back end of the top 100 list. Maybe if you throw in Adell, Detroit will bite. But even then maybe not.
Steve,
I understand you wanting more for Fulmer but the truth of the matter is that in this scenario the Tigers would be getting back three guys who all project as at least 3 WAR players, though, atmittedly, there is a high beta with Marsh. I think the Quintana trade is the last time for a long time that we’ll see the trade of a consensus top 25 prospect (Jimenez) — teams horde guys like that now and refuse to give them up. Thus, I just can’t envision Adell being a part of any deal. Also, while Fulmer would be the Angels’ ace, I certainly would call him an “ACE” in the purest sense of the word. Also, because of his violent delivery, his injury risk hurts his trade value. As a result, I think Thaiss, Marsh, and Canning would be as good a return as Detroit could get.
That’s not enough for one of them let alone both and top 25 prospects in the entire MLB get traded all the time, it’s part of the game.
As good as a prospect haul that they can get for Fulmer, not both. I believe that to be the case also
Actually, top 25 prospects do not get traded all the time. Other than Jimenez and Dansby Swanson (in a trade that ended doing more to cost GM Dave Stewart his job than any other), can you tell me the last consensus top 25 guy who was traded? And I think you guys are underestimating the Thaiss-Marsh-Canning package.
Yoan moncada. Jimenez. Swanson. Gleyber Torres. Lewis Brinson. Lucas giolito & reynaldo Lopez.
Wil Myers. Addison Russell. Daniel Norris.
Do you even watch baseball or nah?
You’re right on Moncada and Sale was head and shoulders above where Fulmer is now. Myers was almost six years ago, Russell was four years ago (and the paradigm has completely shifted since then) and none of the rest were consensus top 25 prospects. Some of them, like Torres, eventually became top 25 guys but AFTER they were traded.
Though Fulmer is far cheaper with more years of control than Verlander, Verlander is far, far better pitcher. And look at the package Detroit got for him — ONE consensus top 100 guy at the time of the deal in Franklin Perez. Neither Rogers nor Cameron at the time of the deal were even close to being consensus top 100 guys.
The Tigers are in no hurry to trade either Fulmer or Castellanos. And the 3 players named is not nearly enough. The Tigers have already dumped salaries so there is no need to make a move until they get an offer they can't refuse. And this one is not even close.
I agree seems light Fulmer could fetch at least that from yankees or blah the dodgers
The Rockies might want fulmer and castellanos. They are always in need of pitching. They could use a right handed hitter. They have trevor story at short... why not send Brendan Rodgers? I think they would have to add a couple more prospects like sam Hilliard and Chad spanberger... I would even offer to take Ian Desmond and that terrible contract.. or mcgee... and I'd throw in Fiers if needed.
This proposed Fulmer & Castellanos trade to the Angels is laughable...and pure fantasyland.. don't think the Angels even have a good enough Farm system to land only Fulmer and adding Castellanos with Fulmer for 3 scrub prospects from the Angels lower tier farm system?!?!
I think Al Avila hangs up the phone and won't even talk to Billy Epler if OF Joe O'Dell SS Billy Maitan are not immediately mentioned...just for one of those players.
Tigers Al Avila already turned down a better deal than that just for Fulmer from a few teams last deadline and over the winter including the Yankees.
Al Avila has stated publicly that there are only a few MLB farm systems that have the talent to land Fulmer...
He did not even mention Castellanos who is not a throw in player, but the best player on the Tigers team right now.
Honestly, this sounds like an Angels fan who overvalues Angels prospects and vastly undervalues Tigers talent.
Just Fulmer is going to cost some team 4-5 top young prospects with huge upside
(Just think of the return the Braves gave the Rangers for Mark Texeira...
4-5 top prospects and at least 4 made subsequent All Star teams just for a 1 year rental of Mark Texeira)...
Otherwise, the Tigers would be foolish to trade a 25 year old #1 ace starter, rookie of the year with great stuff and his best years ahead of him maybe future Cy Young Awards, making only 550K and with 4 1/2 years team control left?!?!?
If Al Avila did this deal for the scrubs questionable prospects you present for
2 All Star level players, then he should be immediately fired.
Like saying the Angels should trade Trout and Upton for a few scrub Tigers maybe prospects?
Get Real!!!
Indians sent 2 of their top three prospects to the Yankees (Clint Frazier and Justice Sheffield + other prospects) for Andrew Miller.
Yankees sent Arnoldis Chapman to the Cubs for Gleyber Torres and a package of prospects.
Yankees sent Dustin Fowler(CF), James Caprellian RHSP, Jorge Mateo SS 3 top prospects to the A's for Sonny Grey...Fulmer is better than Sonny Grey and younger..
Because the Angels Farm system is 2nd tier, you are probably talking the Angels top 5 prospects if you even want Tigers GM Al Avila to even think about your offer for more than a few minutes: O'Dell, Maintan, Jones, Marsh and Canning.
I don't think Detroit even does that deal.
They were insisting that Cashman include SS Gleyber Torres as the centepiece of a deal for only Fulmer last trading deadline...
Avila is in no hurry...He has top 100 pitching prospects backed up in his farm system and should get at least 3 more years of high draft picks...
First of all, History, that's Jo Adell and Kevin Maitan. Second of all, I'm actually a huge Tigers fan who would love for the team to get its hands on Adell but realistically I realize it will never happen. Thirdly, you mention Maitan -- he's just a name at this point. Since the Braves signed him to that big bonus several years ago he's put on 30 pounds of bad weight while his bat speed has slowed considerably. Just look at his poor numbers -- a .266/.310/.351 slash line against rookie league pitching. Stop using Baseball America to make your arguments -- Maitan at this point isn't even a top-200 prospect and isn't even close to any one of the Thais/Marsh/Canning troika.
Above, the Mark Teixeira-to-the-Braves trade was mentioned. Do you remember when that trade took place? 2007!! 11 years ago. The entire game has changed since then, including how teams value their top prospects so that deal is no longer relevant.
And how do you know what deal Avila turned down from the Yankees? Did he tell you which players were involved?
You also mention the Sonny Gray deal. While Fulmer is indeed better than Gray and offers more years of control, the package the A's received from New York isn't even in the same ballpark as Thaiss/Marsh/Canning. Mateo's star had dropped considerably at the time of the deal and he was already viewed as a utility guy at best if he ever did make it to the majors. As a 23-year-old he has a poor .224/.274/.350 slash line in the hitter friendly PCL. Kapriellian? At the time of the deal he had already had Tommy John Surgery and he was nowhere near a top-25 prospect. And while Dustin Fowler is a nice little player, it would be a gross exaggeration to label him a premium prospect.
Again, I think people are overestimating Fulmer and Castellanos and selling the Thaiss/Marsh/Canning triumvirate way short. Fulmer is a good pitcher and would right away become the Angels' best starter, but he is not a Sale. Not even close. And Castellanos is a good hitter, a very good one in fact, but he pales in comparison to a JD Martinez (even though he has one more year of control than Martinez had last year at this point. And what did Detroit get in return for Martinez? Garbage.
Now let's look at Thaiss/Marsh/Canning one more time. Thaiss is nearly major-league ready (thus removing much uncertainty) who's 60 bat and burgeoning power will make him at least a 3 WAR player. Marsh, because of his youth, has the most uncertainty of the three. However, because of his vast tool set also offers the most upside. He could easily develop into a 3 WAR player and perhaps more (although in more time than it would take Thaiss). And Canning has seen a serious spike in his velocity this season and given his plus command it would not be out of the realm of possibility if he became as good as Fulmer.
If you look at it another way, Thaiss and Marsh would instantly become Detroit's best hitting prospects. And with the exception of Casey Mize and (possibly) Franklin Perez,
Canning would instantly become the Tigers best pitching prospect.
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