With the world still mired in the COVID-19 pandemic, money tight
following 2020’s bastardized 60-game season, and Major League Baseball possibly
12 short months away from labor Armageddon, there’s no better time than the
present to handicap the destinations for this offseason’s 20 top free agents.
Did we mention money is scarce? According to Commissioner Ron Manfred, MLB’s
30 teams lost a combined $3 billion in 2020, a development which will
surely adversely affect paydays this winter.
That said, the arrival of hedge fund mogul Steve Cohen in Queens and the
likely December introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine (which should help ensure fans
will be in the stands for most, if not all, of 2021), should at least partially
mitigate the financial carnage.
So, without further ado, let’s see where everyone goes:
1) George Springer, OF—New York Mets, 5 Years/$125 million: Sure, he just turned 31, but Springer is this winter’s best all-round mercenary who’s showed no signs of aging. And combine that with a new Mets owner (Cohen) who not only is richer than all of his contemporaries but also has an extra $20 million to burn following Robinson Cano’s second PED suspension. Inking Springer will allow the Mets to upgrade their entire OF defense by putting Brandon Nimmo back in a corner slot.
2) J.T. Realmuto, C—Philadelphia Phillies, 5 Years/$120 million: Signing a soon-to-be 30-year-old backstop to this mega contract as baseball remains stuck in a financial crevice may not seem like a good idea, but let’s not forget that the Phillies are not exactly in a position of strength. Even after signing high-priced free agents Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler and trading for Realmuto during the last two offseasons, the Phillies haven’t been any better than mediocre. Losing the 2-time All Star would just make the climb towards competitiveness that much steeper.
3) Trevor Bauer, RHP—New York Mets, 5 years/$140 million: Yes, we’ve heard all the talk about Bauer’s desire to sign 1-year deals for the rest of his career, but seeing is believing. A hotly contested bidding war will likely ensue for the services of the UCLA alum, with the likes of the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Yankees, Braves, and Blue Jays all vying for Bauer to grab their Montblanc. But don’t sleep on the Metropolitans, who still have a hole in their pitching staff after Jacob DeGrom and will be buoyed by Cohen’s zillions.
4) D.J. LeMahieu, 2B—New York Yankees, 4 years/$72 million: LeMahieu was little more than an afterthought when he signed with the Bronx Bombers following the 2018 season, but two Silver Slugger awards later, retaining the former LSU star is front and center on GM Brian Cashman’s to-do list. Although he turns 33 next year, LeMahieu’s prowess on both offense and defense shouldn’t preclude him from securing a long-term deal.
5) Marcell Ozuna, DH/OF—Toronto Blue Jays, 3 years/$55 million: The Blue Jays’ brain trust has gone on record this fall stating that it won’t shy away from big names, and following his resurgence in 2020, Ozuna is just the big bat Toronto needs to take the pressure off its young core. The White Sox and Twins, assuming they don’t re-sign Nelson Cruz, will also be in play. Finally, to date Manfred has not decided whether the NL will once again carry the DH, a development (or lack thereof) that will impact both Ozuna and Cruz.
6) Michael Brantley, OF/DH—Atlanta Braves, 2 years/$30 million: With Nick Markakis’ run as Atlanta’s RF most likely coming to an end and youngster Drew Waters not ready for prime time, Brantley would serve as a perfect stopgap for the Braves. Despite turning 34 next May, Brantley is still well above average on both sides of the ball and shouldn’t break the bank.
7) Nelson Cruz, DH—Chicago White Sox, 2 years/$25 million: Edwin Encarnacion struck out as Chicago’s resident veteran slugger, but the South Siders should have more luck with Cruz, as his stellar numbers would attest. The presence of phenom Andrew Vaughn, which will make first baseman Jose Abreu the full-time DH sooner rather than later, would probably prevent Chicago from committing more than two years to Cruz.
8) Justin Turner, 3B—Los Angeles Dodgers, 2 years/$32 million: As JP Morosi and Jim Bowden (subscription required) have recently pointed out, Rockies superstar Nolan Arenado could be an enticing option for the newly minted world champion Dodgers. However, we urge caution—prior to the February trade for and extension of Mookie Betts, LA rarely pursued big ticket items. And Turner, a Lakewood, CA native and Cal State Fullerton product, would like nothing more than to conclude his career with his hometown team.
9) Didi Gregorius, SS—Cincinnati Reds, 3 years/$45 million: New Reds GM Nick Krall is in a bind, guiding a small-market club with a closing window to contend. Enter Gregorius, who’s an accomplished SS with a powerful bat tailor made for the Great American Bandb…err, we mean Ballpark. Sir Didi would block prospect Jose Garcia, who could then be used as trade fodder to land a power bat or reliable starter.
10) Masahiro Tanaka, RHP—Washington Nationals, 1 year/$16 million: We don’t see the 32-year-old Tanaka, who’s pitched for years with an elbow ligament tear, getting anything more than a 1-year deal. The Nationals, who might lose their ace Max Scherzer to free agency after next season, seem like the ideal team to lure Tanaka with a pricey one-year contract. The starting quartet of Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Tanaka might be just the fearsome foursome needed to pitch the Nats back into contention.
11) Joc Pederson, OF—Cleveland Indians, 2 years/$20 million: The Tribe has gotten virtually no offense in recent years from its OF corps, and the signing of Pederson would change that. While his difficulties against southpaws are well documented, he’s a legitimate 30-HR bat whose defense is best suited for a corner.
12) Andrelton Simmons, SS—Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years/$33 million: Simmons’ once sterling dWAR numbers (as measured by Baseball Reference) declined every year in 2017-19; however, he’d still be a good consolation prize for Philadelphia if Gregorius leaves.
13) J.A. Happ, LHP—Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year/$13 million: Happ has already spent parts of six seasons north of the border, including a banner 2016 campaign which saw him go 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and sterling 1.17 WHIP. At 38 and coming off another fine—albeit abbreviated—season, he’d be the perfect guy for the Blue Jays to throw short term cash at.
14) Jake Odorizzi, RHP—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 1 year/$12 million: Odorizzi looked like he had turned a corner in 2019, but suffered through an injury plagued 2020. The Angels, desperate for pitching, would be the perfect team to entice the veteran righty with a “pillow” contract.
15) Kolten Wong, 2B—Washington Nationals, 2 years/$20 million: It’s a sign of the times that Wong’s 2021 option for $12.5 million was not exercised by the Cardinals. Just one year ago he was coming off a 5.2 bWAR season and looked like he’d be a bulwark in Mike Schildt’s lineup for years to come. Wong’s speed and smooth defense would be an excellent fit for the Nationals as they try to claw their way back to respectability in the tough-as-nails NL East.
16) Liam Hendricks, RHP—Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years/$35 million: This was perhaps the easiest connection on the whole list. The Phillies desperately need a closer and Hendricks is the best one available. End. Of. Story.
17) James Paxton, LHP—Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year/$12 million: If there ever was a pillow contract candidate, this is the guy. Paxton suffered through a nightmarish 2020 but boasts a solid track record, having averaged about 150 IP and 3.0 bWAR in 2017-2019. The Jays would be eager to take a flyer on this high-upside native Canadian on a low-risk contract.
18) Marcus Semien, SS—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3 years/$35 million: While most of the Angels’ efforts this offseason will be focused on landing some arms for their beleaguered rotation, they’ll also be forced to find a SS if Simmons leaves. Semien’s profile isn’t all that dissimilar from Simmons’, but if his banner 2019 is any indication, he offers more offense.
19) Jackie Bradley Jr., OF—Houston Astros, 2 years/$20: The Astros, faced with the prospect of losing Brantley and Josh Reddick from their OF corps this winter, could look to pounce on Bradley and his world-class glove in CF. Bradley’s inconsistent bat would be at least partially offset by the emergence of Kyle Tucker and the rest of Houston’s high-powered lineup.
20) Trevor
Rosenthal, RHP—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3 years/$30 million: Two years removed from Tommy John surgery,
Rosenthal was his old dominant self in 2020, which will set off a bidding war
this winter. Once again, the Angels, in
an effort to build a winner during Mike Trout’s prime, will be poised to strike.
