Landing Spots for the Top 10 Non-Tendered Free Agents

 

On Wednesday evening, the 30 Major League clubs did not tender contracts to 59 players.  The list of players non-tendered reads like a who’s who of former top prospects and guys who have enjoyed ample success in the big leagues.  Earlier this week, we revealed our top 20 free agents along with predictions for where they would land.  Today, we do the same for the 10 best “non-tenders” who now are free agents themselves:

1) David Dahl, OF—Houston Astros:  This former 22^nd ranked prospect (Baseball America, 2015) has an All-Star Game appearance and three straight seasons with an OPS+ of 110 or higher on his resume.  And if the 2021 season begins on time, he’ll still be only 26.  If the Astros lose Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick, they’ll be in the market for a left-handed bat who can play multiple OF positions.  St. Louis, where corner OF starters Tyler O’Neill and Dexter Fowler had respective OPS+ marks of 68 and 92, is another possible destination.

2) Kyle Schwarber, DH/OF—New York Yankees:  Sure, with Giancarlo Stanton firmly entrenched as the DH and Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, and Luke Voit populating the corner OF and 1B positions, Schwarber seems like a poor fit in the South Bronx.  But then picture Schwarber’s pull-oriented left-handed swing peppering the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium for an easy 40 dingers and, suddenly, this marriage becomes a lot easier to imagine.  In yesterday’s New York Post, Joel Sherman explains how this could work.

3) Eddie Rosario, OF—Cleveland Indians:  Beauty’s in the eye of the beholder.  Although Rosario has exactly one season with a bWAR higher than 2.2, he seems like the second coming of Babe Ruth when compared to the Mario Mendoza clones that patrolled the Indians’ OF in 2020.  Don’t believe us?  Well, Rosario’s bWAR of 0.9 dwarfed the combined bWAR of -1.8 (yes, friends, that was a negative number) posted by the five Indians’ outfielders with the most ABs in 2020.  In other words, expect Cleveland to do something to fix its OF this winter and Rosario is as cost efficient a solution as you’ll find on the open market.  The Tigers, White Sox, and Red Sox head the list of other potential suitors.

4) Adam Duvall, OF/DH—Minnesota Twins:  He’s not sexy, but Duvall is a proven power source who can hold his own defensively.  He hit over 30 bombs in 2016 and 2017 and put another 26 in the seats in just 310 ABs in 2019-20, though his OBP has always been putrid.  Don’t be surprised if the Twins come calling if they and Nelson Cruz don’t reach a deal.

5) Carlos Rodon, LHP—Seattle Mariners:  A former third overall pick in 2014, Rodon never came close to fulfilling the lofty expectations we all harbored on draft night.  Still, he has a nuclear arsenal at his disposal and will only turn 28 next week.  The best fit for Rodon would be a team not expected to win in 2021 and thus comfortable throwing him out there every five days, even with occasional suboptimal results.  The Mariners make perfect sense.

6) Archie Bradley, RHP—Philadelphia Phillies:  The Phillies’ bullpen woes are baseball’s worst-kept secret, and Bradley is a high-upside arm that will come relatively cheap.

7) Hanser Alberto, 2B—St. Louis Cardinals:  Though Alberto isn’t near the player Kolten Wong has been in the past, don’t be shocked if the Red Birds play a little game of salary arbitrage, swapping Wong’s $12.5 million 2021 option for a salary not more than one-fifth that amount.

8) Nomar Mazara, OF—Detroit Tigers:  The Tigers will be vying for one of the free agent corner outfielders from a list that includes Joc Pederson, Rosario, and Dahl, with Mazara as the possible consolation prize.  As poor as Mazara’s 2020 was, he’s still a far better player than Christin Stewart, Detroit’s incumbent LF.  And he’s only 25.  According to The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen, Detroit briefly pursued a trade for Mazara last offseason.

9) Albert Almora, OF—New York Mets: The sixth overall pick from the 2012 draft, Almora’s bat has never developed as originally anticipated, and his inability to walk and lack of power likely mean his days as an everyday starter are over.  That said, his dazzling defense and youth (still 26) should make him appealing as a top-flight fourth OF to a host of playoff contending teams.  The Mets, especially if they don’t land George Springer, along with the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros all quickly come to mind.

10) Curt Casali, C—Seattle Mariners:  Casali has created a nice niche for himself as a back-up catcher who can catch one-third to one-half of his team’s games without embarrassing himself.  The Mariners could strike again—the team will be hesitant to rely solely on youngsters Luis Torrens and Cal Raleigh behind the dish as they continue to introduce an impressive stable of talented arms into the bigs.  Any team that loses out in the James McCann and Yadier Molina sweepstakes, such as the Mets, Phillies, and Cardinals, could also be in the running for the Vanderbilt alum.