Landing Spots for the Top 10 Non-Tendered Free Agents

 

On Wednesday evening, the 30 Major League clubs did not tender contracts to 59 players.  The list of players non-tendered reads like a who’s who of former top prospects and guys who have enjoyed ample success in the big leagues.  Earlier this week, we revealed our top 20 free agents along with predictions for where they would land.  Today, we do the same for the 10 best “non-tenders” who now are free agents themselves:

1) David Dahl, OF—Houston Astros:  This former 22^nd ranked prospect (Baseball America, 2015) has an All-Star Game appearance and three straight seasons with an OPS+ of 110 or higher on his resume.  And if the 2021 season begins on time, he’ll still be only 26.  If the Astros lose Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick, they’ll be in the market for a left-handed bat who can play multiple OF positions.  St. Louis, where corner OF starters Tyler O’Neill and Dexter Fowler had respective OPS+ marks of 68 and 92, is another possible destination.

2) Kyle Schwarber, DH/OF—New York Yankees:  Sure, with Giancarlo Stanton firmly entrenched as the DH and Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, and Luke Voit populating the corner OF and 1B positions, Schwarber seems like a poor fit in the South Bronx.  But then picture Schwarber’s pull-oriented left-handed swing peppering the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium for an easy 40 dingers and, suddenly, this marriage becomes a lot easier to imagine.  In yesterday’s New York Post, Joel Sherman explains how this could work.

3) Eddie Rosario, OF—Cleveland Indians:  Beauty’s in the eye of the beholder.  Although Rosario has exactly one season with a bWAR higher than 2.2, he seems like the second coming of Babe Ruth when compared to the Mario Mendoza clones that patrolled the Indians’ OF in 2020.  Don’t believe us?  Well, Rosario’s bWAR of 0.9 dwarfed the combined bWAR of -1.8 (yes, friends, that was a negative number) posted by the five Indians’ outfielders with the most ABs in 2020.  In other words, expect Cleveland to do something to fix its OF this winter and Rosario is as cost efficient a solution as you’ll find on the open market.  The Tigers, White Sox, and Red Sox head the list of other potential suitors.

4) Adam Duvall, OF/DH—Minnesota Twins:  He’s not sexy, but Duvall is a proven power source who can hold his own defensively.  He hit over 30 bombs in 2016 and 2017 and put another 26 in the seats in just 310 ABs in 2019-20, though his OBP has always been putrid.  Don’t be surprised if the Twins come calling if they and Nelson Cruz don’t reach a deal.

5) Carlos Rodon, LHP—Seattle Mariners:  A former third overall pick in 2014, Rodon never came close to fulfilling the lofty expectations we all harbored on draft night.  Still, he has a nuclear arsenal at his disposal and will only turn 28 next week.  The best fit for Rodon would be a team not expected to win in 2021 and thus comfortable throwing him out there every five days, even with occasional suboptimal results.  The Mariners make perfect sense.

6) Archie Bradley, RHP—Philadelphia Phillies:  The Phillies’ bullpen woes are baseball’s worst-kept secret, and Bradley is a high-upside arm that will come relatively cheap.

7) Hanser Alberto, 2B—St. Louis Cardinals:  Though Alberto isn’t near the player Kolten Wong has been in the past, don’t be shocked if the Red Birds play a little game of salary arbitrage, swapping Wong’s $12.5 million 2021 option for a salary not more than one-fifth that amount.

8) Nomar Mazara, OF—Detroit Tigers:  The Tigers will be vying for one of the free agent corner outfielders from a list that includes Joc Pederson, Rosario, and Dahl, with Mazara as the possible consolation prize.  As poor as Mazara’s 2020 was, he’s still a far better player than Christin Stewart, Detroit’s incumbent LF.  And he’s only 25.  According to The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen, Detroit briefly pursued a trade for Mazara last offseason.

9) Albert Almora, OF—New York Mets: The sixth overall pick from the 2012 draft, Almora’s bat has never developed as originally anticipated, and his inability to walk and lack of power likely mean his days as an everyday starter are over.  That said, his dazzling defense and youth (still 26) should make him appealing as a top-flight fourth OF to a host of playoff contending teams.  The Mets, especially if they don’t land George Springer, along with the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros all quickly come to mind.

10) Curt Casali, C—Seattle Mariners:  Casali has created a nice niche for himself as a back-up catcher who can catch one-third to one-half of his team’s games without embarrassing himself.  The Mariners could strike again—the team will be hesitant to rely solely on youngsters Luis Torrens and Cal Raleigh behind the dish as they continue to introduce an impressive stable of talented arms into the bigs.  Any team that loses out in the James McCann and Yadier Molina sweepstakes, such as the Mets, Phillies, and Cardinals, could also be in the running for the Vanderbilt alum.

Free Agency 2020-21: Where will they go?

With the world still mired in the COVID-19 pandemic, money tight following 2020’s bastardized 60-game season, and Major League Baseball possibly 12 short months away from labor Armageddon, there’s no better time than the present to handicap the destinations for this offseason’s 20 top free agents. 

Did we mention money is scarce?  According to Commissioner Ron Manfred, MLB’s 30 teams lost a combined $3 billion in 2020, a development which will surely adversely affect paydays this winter.  That said, the arrival of hedge fund mogul Steve Cohen in Queens and the likely December introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine (which should help ensure fans will be in the stands for most, if not all, of 2021), should at least partially mitigate the financial carnage. 

So, without further ado, let’s see where everyone goes:

1) George Springer, OF—New York Mets, 5 Years/$125 million:  Sure, he just turned 31, but Springer is this winter’s best all-round mercenary who’s showed no signs of aging.  And combine that with a new Mets owner (Cohen) who not only is richer than all of his contemporaries but also has an extra $20 million to burn following Robinson Cano’s second PED suspension.  Inking Springer will allow the Mets to upgrade their entire OF defense by putting Brandon Nimmo back in a corner slot.

2) J.T. Realmuto, C—Philadelphia Phillies, 5 Years/$120 million:  Signing a soon-to-be 30-year-old backstop to this mega contract as baseball remains stuck in a financial crevice may not seem like a good idea, but let’s not forget that the Phillies are not exactly in a position of strength.  Even after signing high-priced free agents Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler and trading for Realmuto during the last two offseasons, the Phillies haven’t been any better than mediocre.  Losing the 2-time All Star would just make the climb towards competitiveness that much steeper.

3) Trevor Bauer, RHP—New York Mets, 5 years/$140 million:  Yes, we’ve heard all the talk about Bauer’s desire to sign 1-year deals for the rest of his career, but seeing is believing.  A hotly contested bidding war will likely ensue for the services of the UCLA alum, with the likes of the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Yankees, Braves, and Blue Jays all vying for Bauer to grab their Montblanc.  But don’t sleep on the Metropolitans, who still have a hole in their pitching staff after Jacob DeGrom and will be buoyed by Cohen’s zillions.

4) D.J. LeMahieu, 2B—New York Yankees, 4 years/$72 million:  LeMahieu was little more than an afterthought when he signed with the Bronx Bombers following the 2018 season, but two Silver Slugger awards later, retaining the former LSU star is front and center on GM Brian Cashman’s to-do list.  Although he turns 33 next year, LeMahieu’s prowess on both offense and defense shouldn’t preclude him from securing a long-term deal.

5) Marcell Ozuna, DH/OF—Toronto Blue Jays, 3 years/$55 million:  The Blue Jays’ brain trust has gone on record this fall stating that it won’t shy away from big names, and following his resurgence in 2020, Ozuna is just the big bat Toronto needs to take the pressure off its young core.  The White Sox and Twins, assuming they don’t re-sign Nelson Cruz, will also be in play.  Finally, to date Manfred has not decided whether the NL will once again carry the DH, a development (or lack thereof) that will impact both Ozuna and Cruz. 

6) Michael Brantley, OF/DH—Atlanta Braves, 2 years/$30 million:  With Nick Markakis’ run as Atlanta’s RF most likely coming to an end and youngster Drew Waters not ready for prime time, Brantley would serve as a perfect stopgap for the Braves.  Despite turning 34 next May, Brantley is still well above average on both sides of the ball and shouldn’t break the bank.

7) Nelson Cruz, DH—Chicago White Sox, 2 years/$25 million:  Edwin Encarnacion struck out as Chicago’s resident veteran slugger, but the South Siders should have more luck with Cruz, as his stellar numbers would attest.  The presence of phenom Andrew Vaughn, which will make first baseman Jose Abreu the full-time DH sooner rather than later, would probably prevent Chicago from committing more than two years to Cruz.

8) Justin Turner, 3B—Los Angeles Dodgers, 2 years/$32 million:  As JP Morosi and Jim Bowden (subscription required) have recently pointed out, Rockies superstar Nolan Arenado could be an enticing option for the newly minted world champion Dodgers.  However, we urge caution—prior to the February trade for and extension of Mookie Betts, LA rarely pursued big ticket items.  And Turner, a Lakewood, CA native and Cal State Fullerton product, would like nothing more than to conclude his career with his hometown team.

9) Didi Gregorius, SS—Cincinnati Reds, 3 years/$45 million: New Reds GM Nick Krall is in a bind, guiding a small-market club with a closing window to contend.  Enter Gregorius, who’s an accomplished SS with a powerful bat tailor made for the Great American Bandb…err, we mean Ballpark.  Sir Didi would block prospect Jose Garcia, who could then be used as trade fodder to land a power bat or reliable starter.

10) Masahiro Tanaka, RHP—Washington Nationals, 1 year/$16 million:  We don’t see the 32-year-old Tanaka, who’s pitched for years with an elbow ligament tear, getting anything more than a 1-year deal.  The Nationals, who might lose their ace Max Scherzer to free agency after next season, seem like the ideal team to lure Tanaka with a pricey one-year contract.  The starting quartet of Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Tanaka might be just the fearsome foursome needed to pitch the Nats back into contention.

11) Joc Pederson, OF—Cleveland Indians, 2 years/$20 million:  The Tribe has gotten virtually no offense in recent years from its OF corps, and the signing of Pederson would change that.  While his difficulties against southpaws are well documented, he’s a legitimate 30-HR bat whose defense is best suited for a corner.

12) Andrelton Simmons, SS—Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years/$33 million:  Simmons’ once sterling dWAR numbers (as measured by Baseball Reference) declined every year in 2017-19; however, he’d still be a good consolation prize for Philadelphia if Gregorius leaves.

13) J.A. Happ, LHP—Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year/$13 million:  Happ has already spent parts of six seasons north of the border, including a banner 2016 campaign which saw him go 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and sterling 1.17 WHIP.  At 38 and coming off another fine—albeit abbreviated—season, he’d be the perfect guy for the Blue Jays to throw short term cash at.

14) Jake Odorizzi, RHP—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 1 year/$12 million:  Odorizzi looked like he had turned a corner in 2019, but suffered through an injury plagued 2020.  The Angels, desperate for pitching, would be the perfect team to entice the veteran righty with a “pillow” contract.

15) Kolten Wong, 2B—Washington Nationals, 2 years/$20 million:  It’s a sign of the times that Wong’s 2021 option for $12.5 million was not exercised by the Cardinals.  Just one year ago he was coming off a 5.2 bWAR season and looked like he’d be a bulwark in Mike Schildt’s lineup for years to come.  Wong’s speed and smooth defense would be an excellent fit for the Nationals as they try to claw their way back to respectability in the tough-as-nails NL East.

16) Liam Hendricks, RHP—Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years/$35 million:  This was perhaps the easiest connection on the whole list.  The Phillies desperately need a closer and Hendricks is the best one available.  End.  Of.  Story.

17) James Paxton, LHP—Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year/$12 million:  If there ever was a pillow contract candidate, this is the guy.  Paxton suffered through a nightmarish 2020 but boasts a solid track record, having averaged about 150 IP and 3.0 bWAR in 2017-2019.  The Jays would be eager to take a flyer on this high-upside native Canadian on a low-risk contract.

18) Marcus Semien, SS—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3 years/$35 million:  While most of the Angels’ efforts this offseason will be focused on landing some arms for their beleaguered rotation, they’ll also be forced to find a SS if Simmons leaves.  Semien’s profile isn’t all that dissimilar from Simmons’, but if his banner 2019 is any indication, he offers more offense.

19) Jackie Bradley Jr., OF—Houston Astros, 2 years/$20:  The Astros, faced with the prospect of losing Brantley and Josh Reddick from their OF corps this winter, could look to pounce on Bradley and his world-class glove in CF.  Bradley’s inconsistent bat would be at least partially offset by the emergence of Kyle Tucker and the rest of Houston’s high-powered lineup.

20) Trevor Rosenthal, RHP—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3 years/$30 million:  Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Rosenthal was his old dominant self in 2020, which will set off a bidding war this winter.  Once again, the Angels, in an effort to build a winner during Mike Trout’s prime, will be poised to strike.  

Is the Tigers’ Rebuild Already Stuck in Neutral?

(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items.  For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era.  Here's the Amazon link:  goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)

It was supposed to be easy.  Take all the young talent acquired from the trades of established veterans, combine it with an infusion of several years’ worth of premium picks (the result of multiple consecutive 100-loss seasons, of course), fill in any remaining holes with strategic free agent signings, and then, finally, plan the World Series parade.  This was the exact blueprint the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros used en route to respective 2016 and 2017 World Series victories, and the Detroit Tigers would employ the same plan to build juggernaut from scratch.  Or so they thought.

Given that it’s been barely a year since Tigers GM Al Avila publicly set the Tigers on their new course, it’s far too early to panic.  However, a number of serious issues have surfaced that have led more than one analyst to question whether this iteration of the reconstruction will be the one that comes to fruition.

The biggest problem with Detroit’s rebuild—and the way in which it completely differs from what happened in Chicago and Houston—is that it is based almost entirely around young pitching, a risky proposition given the alarmingly high attrition rate of baby-faced hurlers. 

From the onset of their tenure in Chicago, Theo Epstein & Co understood the potential pitfalls surrounding young pitchers and therefore opted to instead select the likes of OF Albert Almora, 3B Kris Bryant, and OF Kyle Schwarber with the Cubs’ first-round picks.  And the Astros followed a similar route, adding SS Carlos Correa and 3B Alex Bregman to a young positional corps that already featured 2B Jose Altuve and OF George Springer (though, in fairness, it must be noted that Houston failed miserably with the selections of pitchers Mark Appel and Brady Aiken). 

All of the aforementioned young hitters played a big role in the Cubs and Astros’ championship runs, while the pitching chores for both clubs were for the most part handled by guys who were mid-career acquisitions and thus not susceptible to the high attrition rates that plague young pitchers.

Think about this:  12 of the 17 postseason starts made by Cubs pitchers in 2016 were made by guys Chicago acquired after their age 23 season.  Similarly, only seven of Houston’s 18 postseason games in 2017 were started by pitchers acquired by the ‘Stros prior to their 24^th birthday.

The Tigers, apparently, haven’t read the memo and are already beginning to experience the risks associated with their strategy of building around arms as opposed to bats.  

Franklin Perez, 20, the headliner of last August’s trade which sent long-time ace Justin Verlander to Houston, boasts three above-average pitches and has been viewed by many as a future #2 starter.  However, the young Venezuelan missed the first half of this season with a lat strain before getting lit up to the tune of a 6.52 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 19.1 rehab innings.  And this week Detroit shut Perez down for the remainder of the season with shoulder inflammation.  Though Perez is still extremely young and boasts excellent stuff, his struggles this year have raised doubts surrounding his long-term durability.

Alex Faedo, Detroit’s first-round selection last year, has had a decent season if you look at the numbers.  But if you talk to scouts, they’ll say that Faedo’s fastball has fallen several ticks to the 90-91 MPH range and his changeup is a 45 on the standard 20-80 scouting scale.  This is a recipe for bullpen arm, assuming nothing changes.

With some of Detroit’s best pitching prospects taking their lumps, the onus has fallen to the organization’s young hitters to pick up the slack.  The problem is, however, that the team simply does not boast the high-end positional talent necessary to kickstart a successful rebuild.

Christin Stewart is the Tigers’ “premier” power prospect and supposed left fielder of the future, but his mediocre .256/.340/.470 slash line entering play on Friday as a 24-year-old at Triple A Toledo does not bode well for the future.  In addition, the lead-footed, defensively-challenged Stewart will likely be a liability in the vast pasture that is Comerica Park’s outfield.

Stewart’s teammate, Dawel Lugo, was the key return piece in the J.D. Martinez trade to Arizona.  Detroit’s front office was hopeful that Lugo would step into the 2019 lineup at second base, but the 23-year-old’s .268/.280/.349 effort this season has sparked fears that he may be nothing more than Dixon Machado in disguise.

Daz Cameron was another player Detroit obtained in exchange for Verlander.  After two rough years following his signing by Houston in 2015, Cameron enjoyed a renaissance last season.  What followed was a subpar .259/.346/.370 performance in 246 plate appearances at High A Lakeland until he was unexpectedly promoted to AA Erie.  Although Cameron’s .301/.385/.510 at Double A represents a drastic improvement over his performance at Lakeland, beware of a red herring.  Not only is his .376 BABIP unsustainable in the long run, but his total numbers have been greatly inflated by the fact that he plays half his games within the very cozy confines of UPMC Park—his road numbers (.790 OPS, no home runs) pale in comparison with what he’s done at home (.977 OPS, five home runs).  However, Cameron should receive credit for improving his strikeout rate from 28.6 percent to 22.5 percent since the promotion.

Jake Rogers, 23, was the final piece to the Verlander trade.  Always regarded as a defense-first catcher, there was optimism after a 2017 campaign that saw him hit .261 with 18 homers spread out across 422 at bats between Low and High A ball.  Unfortunately, Rogers has experienced a serious regression this year, hitting just .201 with 90 strikeouts in approximately 300 plate appearances. 

Of all the Tigers’ positional prospects in full-season ball, Isaac Paredes is the best bet to eventually make an impact at the big-league level.  Just 19, Paredes has already been promoted to Erie, where’s he’s continued to show the uncanny ability to barrel the baseball while keeping his strikeouts to a minimum.  However, at 5-11 and 225 pounds, conditioning is Paredes’ biggest problem.  It’s a near certainty that he’ll have to move off of shortstop, and if he’s not careful his propensity to add bad weight will prohibit him from reaching his lofty ceiling.

Detroit’s second-round selection of 1B Reynaldo Rivera last year was viewed as an aggressive overdraft, with many Tigers’ followers concerned that Rivera would evolve into a left-handed hitting version of Ryan Strieby.  Rivera’s performance this season has done nothing to assuage those fears.  The 6-06, 250-pound Rivera’s a one-dimensional player, and his .750 OPS combined with a K-rate in excess of 26 percent while being old for Low A ball makes it unlikely that he’ll develop into a major contributor for the parent club.

With Detroit’s main prospects having a down year, the disappointment that emanated from Tigerland when the organization failed to complete a major deal prior to the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline was understandable.  Although many fans blamed Avila for Detroit’s inactivity, it was not Avila’s fault—the Tigers have simply run out of good players to trade.  Despite an excellent first two seasons, untapped potential, and multiple years of team control remaining, righthander Michael Fulmer has regressed this season and has an injury history to go along with a violent delivery.  And OF Nick Castellanos, his well-honed offensive game notwithstanding, is barely a 2.5-bWAR player because of shoddy defense and poor speed.  Going forward, Castellanos’ trade value will be further hindered by the fact that he’ll be a free agent following the 2019 season thus be viewed as a mere rental. 

Ironically, the frustrations the Tigers experienced at during this week’s trade deadline have been compounded by Detroit’s unexpected “success” this season.  You read that correctly—instead of taking a nosedive and again securing the first pick in next year’s draft, the Tigers have been semi-competitive and would be awarded the eighth selection in the 2019 draft if this season ended Thursday night.  And while the difference between the first and eighth pick may seem like semantics to some baseball fans, those seven picks in between could mean the difference between Bobby Witt Jr. (a potential franchise-chasing, five-tool shortstop) and Shea Langeliers (a projected above-average big-league regular behind the dish).

Despite all the negatives cited in this column, there is still a glimmer of hope—albeit, just a glimmer—that this version of a rebuild will produce a consistent contender. 

Maybe this year’s first overall draft pick, Casey Mize, will beat the odds and enjoy a long, fruitful career as a splitter-firing Masahiro Tanaka clone. 

Maybe this year’s second-round pick, Parker Meadows, will fulfill his vast potential and one day become a 30-30 center fielder. 

Maybe righthander Matt Manning will continue his impressive ascent up the minor league ladder and team with Mize to give Detroit a two-headed monster at the front of its rotation in several years.  

Maybe Paredes will shed 35 pounds and be the A.L.’s next great two-way shortstop. 

Maybe Fulmer will return fully recovered in 2019 and be the centerpiece of a blockbuster at next year’s deadline that brings in a bounty of top prospects. 

Maybe Detroit will lose 108 games next season and select Arkansas slugger Heston Kjerstad with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft.

And maybe, just maybe, they’ll have to plan a World Series parade down Woodward. 

Or maybe you’ll read a column five years from now urging Detroit to trade Mize for a haul of prospects.

Lessons from the Indians-Padres Blockbuster

(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items.  For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era.  Here's the Amazon link:  goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)

In the June 21^st edition of Infield Chatter, we recommended that the Cleveland Indians, in an effort to plug their leaky bullpen, should should acquire reliever Kirby Yates from the San Diego Padres.  On Thursday, the Indians agreed to a swap with the Padres, but instead of picking up Yates, they went for the gusto and landed southpaw closer Brad Hand and lefty setup man Adam Cimber in exchange for catching prospect Francisco Mejia. 

This blockbuster has four fascinating subplots with reverberations that will be felt throughout baseball for the remainder of the season as well as in subsequent years.  

1) The Big Three in the A.L. are now the Big Four.

Prior to this trade, the Indians bullpen was the team’s Achilles heel and prevented the Tribe from being included in the conversation with the A.L.’s three “super teams,” the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox.  In the season’s first half, Cleveland’s bullpen had a 5.28 ERA, good for second-worst in all of baseball and better only than the lowly Royals. 

In Hand, Cleveland now has a Swiss Army knife for its beleaguered pen—he’s capable of multi-inning stints (10 of his 41 appearances have gone longer than an inning), he can close, and most importantly, he’s nails against both right-handed and left-handed hitters (he's held lefties to a .148 batting average while limiting righties to a .229 mark).

Indians fans should be excited about Cimber as well.  Though Cimber’s not as sexy as Hand, he’s been money in 2018 and will provide Indians skipper Terry Francona with a viable late-inning setup option.  Cimber is not an enforcer with a supersonic fastball; instead, he deploys his high-80’s sinker and high-70’s slider with immaculate precision to generate plenty of swings-and-misses as well as ground ball outs.  The 27-year-old Cimber also doesn’t walk anyone, as indicated by his pristine 5.1 K/BB ratio, and keeps the ball in the yard (just two long balls allowed).

Combine Cleveland’s postseason rotation quartet of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger, with a drastically improved bullpen (that would also be bolstered by the edition of #5 starter Shane Bieber), and you’ve got a pitching corps that will be able to shut down the Astros, Red Sox, or anyone else come October.

2) They're celebrating in the streets of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and South Beach.

With the Indians forced to cede a consensus top-25 prospect in Mejia, expect the Reds, Pirates, and Marlins to extract a bounty for Raisel Iglesias, FelipeVazquez, and Kyle Barraclough, respectively.

Look, as starters exit games earlier than ever—especially in the postseason—the value of relievers has skyrocketed, especially those who can erase both lefties and righties in late-inning, high-leverage situations and those under club control for multiple seasons.  And Iglesias, Vazquez, and Barraclough check both of those boxes.

Currently, the Cubs, who just placed closer Brandon Morrow on the DL, Red Sox, Braves, and Dodgers all have sizable holes in their bullpens that must be plugged.  And, as economics teaches us, when supply is less than demand…

3) The Indians’ window just got a little bigger.

Cleveland president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff made this trade with more than just 2018 in mind.  Injured setup man extraordinaire Andrew Miller and closer Cody Allen can both walk as free agents after this season, and, due to the escalating salaries of relievers, will likely leave small-market Cleveland.  But with Hand owed a reasonable $16.5 million thru 2020 with a $10 million option for 2021 and Cimber not even arbitration eligible, the Indians’ brain trust already has two future bullpen pieces in place.

Now combine all this with the fact that the Indians’ two best players, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, are still under control for years to come—including two team options, Ramirez’ contract runs through 2023 and Lindor will not become a free agent until after 2021—while all of Cleveland’s vaunted starters have nowhere to go until at least 2021.  In other words, don’t expect the Indians to go away anytime soon.

4) The Dodgers will have some stiff competition in 2021.

It’s quite possible that LA, owned by investment titan Guggenheim Partners, buoyed by billions in TV revenue, and run by arguably the sport’s sharpest front office, will continue to have a choke hold over the N.L. West much like the Yankees have dominated the A.L. for the last quarter century. 

But it’s also possible that the Padres, owners of baseball’s deepest farm system, will one day put a dent in the Dodgers’ plans. 

It wasn’t enough for the Friars to have a 19-year-old who’s evoked Manny Machado comparisons in Fernando Tatis Jr, a 21-year-old who scouts swear will win a batting title in Luis Urias, or an 18-year-old in Tirso Ornelas who’s already posting a higher-than-league-average OPS in full-season ball.  Nor were the Padres content with about a dozen high-ceiling pitching prospects dispersed throughout all levels of the minors.  Nah, Padres GM A.J. Preller felt compelled to add Mejia.  And all Mejia has done in his brief minor-league career is notch a 50-game hitting streak while batting just shy of .300 and flashing an arm that rates as at least 70 on the standard 20-80 scale.

While the Dodgers are the Best of the West in 2018, 2021 may be a far different story.

Drew Waters: The Braves’ next Mega Prospect?

(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items.  For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era.  Here's the Amazon link:  goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)

Things have not been this good in the Atlanta Braves’ player development ranks in decades.  Uber phenom Ronald Acuna has made a significant contribution to the playoff-contending big-league club.  3B Austin Riley has hit with power while displaying Scott Rolenesque qualities on defense at AA and AAA.  And RHPs Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Ian Anderson, and a host of other minor league hurlers have made huge strides in 2018 as they position themselves to propel a burgeoning juggernaut into the 2020’s.

But the most overlooked development in the system so far this season has been the emergence of CF Drew Waters into one of the most exciting five-tool prospects in the minors.  Waters, Atlanta’s second-round pick last year, has made enormous progress in his first stab at full-season ball and positioned himself as the Braves’ next superstar in waiting.

Although Waters’ speed, athleticism, and switch-hitting ability catapulted him into the first-round conversation last year, questions surrounding his power and overall ceiling pushed him down to the second round, where the Braves selected him with the 41^st overall pick. 

There have been two keys to Waters’ breakout in 2018.  First, and most importantly, has been his improved ability to make contact.  In 165 plate appearances at Danville in the Appalachian League last year (following a successful introductory stint in the Gulf Coast League), Waters’ K rate was a staggering 36 percent.  This season, in 304 PAs at Rome in the more challenging South Atlantic League—where, at 19, he’s more than two years younger than the average player—Waters has almost cut his K rate in half to 19 percent. 

Such drastic improvement is almost unheard of and portends well for Waters as he climbs the developmental ladder and faces more advanced pitching.

The second key to Waters’ emergence has been his growing power.  Once again, Waters has exhibited dramatic improvement in such a condensed time period.  After posting an isolated power of .128 at Danville, Waters has run his ISO all the way up to .220 at Rome.  Although the native Georgian has just 8 home runs after not quite two-thirds of the way through the 2018 campaign, his 26 doubles and six triples suggest that the balls Waters is now driving to the gaps will wind up over the fence in several years.

Assuming Waters continues to hone his offensive game in coming seasons, the rest of his skills portfolio should allow him to evolve into a budding superstar.  His 60 speed (on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale) means that he’ll be able to stick in center field, but his strong, accurate arm would permit a shift to right field in deference to Acuna. 

Waters’ speed has also been an asset on the basepaths, where he’s 15 for 18 in stolen bases.  And the 6-02, 185-pound Waters’ lithe physique should enable him to add strength without losing a step, thus making 20 steals a season probable and 30 thefts not out of the question.

Although Waters still has facets of his game that need improvement—namely his performance against southpaws, against whom he’s slashing only .202/.230/.286—his broad tool set combined with the substantial progress he’s made in such a short time could mean the Braves have yet another future star in their pipeline.

Trade Fair: Fulmer and Castellanos Leave Motown for Disney

With MLB’s customary mid-summer trade winds starting to gust as we approach the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline, playoff contenders are once again scouring the market for pitching reinforcements that they hope will turn World Series dreams into reality come October.  Although the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim open play on Friday a distant 13.5 games behind the A.L. West-leading Houston Astros and 12 games in back of the Mariners, who are in pole position for the second wild card, don’t be shocked if the Halos aggressively pursue a headline pitching addition as well as other roster enhancements.   

At 38-51, the Detroit Tigers are buried in the standings and in the middle of a lengthy rebuild.  Thus, as Crazy Eddie used to say in the 1980’s, everything must go.  “Everything” in this case includes Michael Fulmer, Detroit’s ace, and Nick Castellanos, its third-place hitter and right fielder.

The Trade:  The Tigers trade Fulmer and Castellanos to the Angels for 1B Matt Thaiss, OF Brandon Marsh, and RHP Griffin Canning.

What the Angels are getting:  A frontline starter to aid a beleaguered rotation and a #3 hitter to slot behind Mike Trout.  While Fulmer’s 2018 numbers suggest that he hasn’t enjoyed the same success as his 2016 Rookie of the Year effort or last year, he still ranks 36th in Fangraphs WAR among MLB starting pitchers (thanks, Kurt Mensching), and he’s been posting career-high velocities on both his four seamer and sinker.  The 25-year-old would instantly become the ace of the Angels’ rotation and bolster a pitching corps that has been ravaged by injuries—six Angel pitchers have already underwent arm surgeries so far this year. 

Castellanos would give Angels Manager Mike Scioscia a lethal bat in the 3-hole.  His .305/.356/.519 slash line and 3.0 oWAR ensure that he’d be a massive upgrade over incumbent RF Kole Calhoun, whose .497 OPS ranks last in the A.L. at the position. 

Even if the Angels are unable to catch the Astros or Mariners this season, this trade would satisfy GM Billy Eppler’s main objective, which is to put the Halos in the best possible position to win before Trout’s contract expires after 2020.  Castellanos won’t become a free agent until after next season, while Fulmer will not be eligible to leave until after 2022.

What the Tigers are getting:  Detroit GM Al Avila is ssensible enough to realize that he’d never be able to pry OF Jo Adell, the crown jewel of the Angels system, away from southern California.  However, Thaiss, Marsh, and Canning are all highly-coveted prospects and their arrival in Detroit would greatly accelerate the Tigers’ rebuild.

 

Thaiss, 23, is a hitting machine who’s delivered at every minor league level and is now adding power to his game, as evidenced by his .223 isolated power (ISO) at AA and AAA this season.  With Victor Martinez likely retiring in October and Miguel Cabrera probably relegated to DH next year, Thaiss would enjoy a clear path to Comerica Park.

Marsh is the dynamo of the deal.  Just 20, he’s still more projection over performance but that gap has closed considerably in 2018.  A left-handed hitter, the 6-04 Marsh still has holes in his swing, but scouts are almost unanimous in the belief that Marsh could be a perennial .280 hitter who belts at least 20 home runs a season.  On defense, Marsh has a center fielder’s range but enough arm to play right field.

Canning, a second rounder in the 2017 draft, fell because of injury concerns that proved to be unfounded.  He’s shot up three levels this season as a velocity spike has enabled him to throw his fastball into the mid-90’s and his three other offerings all rate as at least major-league average.  Canning’s build, stuff, and superb command have evoked some comparisons to Zack Greinke; however, other evaluators view him as a solid #3 starter.  Nonetheless, he’d be a great add to Detroit’s already bountiful collection of pitching prospects.

The Cleveland Indians are far from a Finished Product

Despite its relatively comfortable five-game divisional lead in the A.L. Central (the largest margin in baseball) heading into Friday’s action, the Cleveland Indians are a flawed club, plagued by holes in the lineup and bullpen that will spark an early exit from the Oktoberfest if they’re not addressed by the July 31^st trade deadline. 

Much like last season, Manager Terry Francona’s squad has reaped the benefits of playing in MLB’s least competitive division, where the Twins have been maddeningly inconsistent, and the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox are in various stages of lengthy rebuilds.  However, the Indians’ grace period will end in the postseason when they’ll have to face juggernauts like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees. 

The first order of business for Indians’ President Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff should be to plug the club’s leaky bullpen, which is second-to-last in the A.L. with a 5.42 ERA and has been especially taxed since stud reliever Andrew Miller went on the DL with a knee injury.  In drawing up possible solutions to Cleveland’s bullpen woes, it’s vital to acknowledge the organization’s payroll limitations in addition to the fact that the club will also need to save some powder to bolster its lineup.

The first move the Cleveland brain trust should consider is one that doesn’t cost anything in terms of talent or money—shifting starter Mike Clevinger to the bullpen, where he’d eventually team up with Miller to give Francona two shutdown setup guys capable of multi-inning stints.  Clevinger could also become the successor to closer Cody Allen or Miller, both of whom are set to depart as free agents after this season.

Clevinger’s already-filthy stuff should transition well to the pen, where the velocity on his fourseamer will likely tick up from its current average of 93.9 MPH and he’ll be able to rely more on his effective curveball. Also, as Clevinger’s reverse-platoon splits indicate, Francona would be able to count on him against both lefties and righties in late-inning, high-leverage situations.   

Cleveland’s replacement for Clevinger in the rotation should also come from within.  23-year-old Shane Bieber has cruised through the minors in just two years, displaying pinpoint control and an effective four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that scrapes the mid-90’s.  Just how good has Bieber been?  In 274 minor league innings, he’s posted a ridiculous 2.20 ERA and an equally-outrageous 255/18 K/BB ratio. 

As much as we like Clevinger as a multi-inning power reliever, adding him to the bullpen would not be enough to end the Tribe’s late inning misery.  Cleveland should target another reliever, and, if possible, do so without substantially increasing payroll.  So, while the Indians should fix their gaze in the direction of San Diego, they shouldn’t do so with the intention of landing Brad Hand, everyone’s favorite trade target.  Instead, Cleveland should set its sights on righthander Kirby Yates, who won’t demand nearly the prospect haul that Hand would and whose $1.1 million salary would easily fit into the Tribe’s budget.

Though he doesn’t carry the same cache as Hand, Yates could still emerge as a difference maker for Cleveland.  He’s been murder on right-handed hitters, who’ve posted a miniscule .263 OPS against the native Hawaiian without even delivering an extra-base hit in 59 plate appearances.  In addition, his FIP of 2.43 is a harbinger of more good things to come.

Unfortunately, Cleveland’s deficiencies are not limited to its bullpen.  Although the Indians rank third in the A.L. in home runs and fourth in slugging and runs scored, the Tribe’s offense is unbalanced with a disproportionate amount of production generated by the Francisco Lindor-Michael Brantley-Jose Ramirez troika.  That threesome has put up a .297/.363/.550 slash line while the Indians’ other hitters have slashed a paltry .233/.311/.383.  If Cleveland is to have any chance against lethal playoff pitching, it will have to lengthen the sweet spot of its lineup.

The Orioles will attract the attention of every team looking to add some punch at the deadline.  Not only do the O’s boast Manny Machado, arguably the best hitter ever available at the mid-season trade bazaar, but also Adam Jones.  No longer a viable option in center field, Jones can still adequately man a corner and is on pace for his seventh boWAR of at least 3.0 in the last nine seasons.  Cleveland should pursue both in a trade.

Plugging Machado into the Indians lineup at the hot corner would enable Francona to shift Ramirez to second base, where he rates as excellent, and move Jason Kipnis and his .611 OPS to the bench.  This would not only give Cleveland the best all-round infield in baseball, but also an unparalleled top of its lineup.

While Jones wouldn’t have the same impact as Machado, he’d be a substantial upgrade over the cast of characters Francona has penciled into the lineup in the corner outfield.  Jones’ OPS+ of 114 easily exceeds the 56 posted by Brandon Guyer, the 55 put up by Rajai Davis, and the 43 Melky Cabrera delivered before he was released.

Even though they’d be just half-season rentals, acquiring Machado and Jones would cost the Indians a hefty prospect package that would probably include at least one of catcher Francisco Mejia, righthander Triston McKenzie, and outfielder Conner Capel.  But the Indians’ most recent draft class, assessed by many insiders to be among the best in MLB, and the organization’s strong presence in Latin America would help offset the loss of some of the organization’s best minor league talent. 

The acquisition of Machado and Jones would come at a substantial monetary cost, with approximately $20 million being added to the books on a pro rata basis (assuming the trade was made tomorrow).  This hefty amount would be in stark contrast to the $4 million the Indians took on when they added Jay Bruce last year and $4 million the team assumed when it traded for Miller and Guyer in 2016.

Before ruling out the Tribe’s acquisition of Machado and Jones due to its prohibitive cost, it’s important to realize that this small market club’s window won’t be open forever.  In fact, rotation stalwarts Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco will be eligible to leave as free agents after the 2020 season, while ace Corey Kluber and Lindor’s contracts expire after 2021.  And don’t forget about Miller and Allen’s likely departure after this year. 

It’s been 70 years since a World Series flag was last hoisted on the banks of Lake Erie.  And if the Indians don’t make the necessary changes in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, that unfortunate streak will continue indefinitely.