Lessons from the Indians-Padres Blockbuster

(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items.  For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era.  Here's the Amazon link:  goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)

In the June 21^st edition of Infield Chatter, we recommended that the Cleveland Indians, in an effort to plug their leaky bullpen, should should acquire reliever Kirby Yates from the San Diego Padres.  On Thursday, the Indians agreed to a swap with the Padres, but instead of picking up Yates, they went for the gusto and landed southpaw closer Brad Hand and lefty setup man Adam Cimber in exchange for catching prospect Francisco Mejia. 

This blockbuster has four fascinating subplots with reverberations that will be felt throughout baseball for the remainder of the season as well as in subsequent years.  

1) The Big Three in the A.L. are now the Big Four.

Prior to this trade, the Indians bullpen was the team’s Achilles heel and prevented the Tribe from being included in the conversation with the A.L.’s three “super teams,” the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox.  In the season’s first half, Cleveland’s bullpen had a 5.28 ERA, good for second-worst in all of baseball and better only than the lowly Royals. 

In Hand, Cleveland now has a Swiss Army knife for its beleaguered pen—he’s capable of multi-inning stints (10 of his 41 appearances have gone longer than an inning), he can close, and most importantly, he’s nails against both right-handed and left-handed hitters (he's held lefties to a .148 batting average while limiting righties to a .229 mark).

Indians fans should be excited about Cimber as well.  Though Cimber’s not as sexy as Hand, he’s been money in 2018 and will provide Indians skipper Terry Francona with a viable late-inning setup option.  Cimber is not an enforcer with a supersonic fastball; instead, he deploys his high-80’s sinker and high-70’s slider with immaculate precision to generate plenty of swings-and-misses as well as ground ball outs.  The 27-year-old Cimber also doesn’t walk anyone, as indicated by his pristine 5.1 K/BB ratio, and keeps the ball in the yard (just two long balls allowed).

Combine Cleveland’s postseason rotation quartet of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger, with a drastically improved bullpen (that would also be bolstered by the edition of #5 starter Shane Bieber), and you’ve got a pitching corps that will be able to shut down the Astros, Red Sox, or anyone else come October.

2) They're celebrating in the streets of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and South Beach.

With the Indians forced to cede a consensus top-25 prospect in Mejia, expect the Reds, Pirates, and Marlins to extract a bounty for Raisel Iglesias, FelipeVazquez, and Kyle Barraclough, respectively.

Look, as starters exit games earlier than ever—especially in the postseason—the value of relievers has skyrocketed, especially those who can erase both lefties and righties in late-inning, high-leverage situations and those under club control for multiple seasons.  And Iglesias, Vazquez, and Barraclough check both of those boxes.

Currently, the Cubs, who just placed closer Brandon Morrow on the DL, Red Sox, Braves, and Dodgers all have sizable holes in their bullpens that must be plugged.  And, as economics teaches us, when supply is less than demand…

3) The Indians’ window just got a little bigger.

Cleveland president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff made this trade with more than just 2018 in mind.  Injured setup man extraordinaire Andrew Miller and closer Cody Allen can both walk as free agents after this season, and, due to the escalating salaries of relievers, will likely leave small-market Cleveland.  But with Hand owed a reasonable $16.5 million thru 2020 with a $10 million option for 2021 and Cimber not even arbitration eligible, the Indians’ brain trust already has two future bullpen pieces in place.

Now combine all this with the fact that the Indians’ two best players, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, are still under control for years to come—including two team options, Ramirez’ contract runs through 2023 and Lindor will not become a free agent until after 2021—while all of Cleveland’s vaunted starters have nowhere to go until at least 2021.  In other words, don’t expect the Indians to go away anytime soon.

4) The Dodgers will have some stiff competition in 2021.

It’s quite possible that LA, owned by investment titan Guggenheim Partners, buoyed by billions in TV revenue, and run by arguably the sport’s sharpest front office, will continue to have a choke hold over the N.L. West much like the Yankees have dominated the A.L. for the last quarter century. 

But it’s also possible that the Padres, owners of baseball’s deepest farm system, will one day put a dent in the Dodgers’ plans. 

It wasn’t enough for the Friars to have a 19-year-old who’s evoked Manny Machado comparisons in Fernando Tatis Jr, a 21-year-old who scouts swear will win a batting title in Luis Urias, or an 18-year-old in Tirso Ornelas who’s already posting a higher-than-league-average OPS in full-season ball.  Nor were the Padres content with about a dozen high-ceiling pitching prospects dispersed throughout all levels of the minors.  Nah, Padres GM A.J. Preller felt compelled to add Mejia.  And all Mejia has done in his brief minor-league career is notch a 50-game hitting streak while batting just shy of .300 and flashing an arm that rates as at least 70 on the standard 20-80 scale.

While the Dodgers are the Best of the West in 2018, 2021 may be a far different story.