Drew Waters: The Braves’ next Mega Prospect?

(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items.  For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era.  Here's the Amazon link:  goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)

Things have not been this good in the Atlanta Braves’ player development ranks in decades.  Uber phenom Ronald Acuna has made a significant contribution to the playoff-contending big-league club.  3B Austin Riley has hit with power while displaying Scott Rolenesque qualities on defense at AA and AAA.  And RHPs Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Ian Anderson, and a host of other minor league hurlers have made huge strides in 2018 as they position themselves to propel a burgeoning juggernaut into the 2020’s.

But the most overlooked development in the system so far this season has been the emergence of CF Drew Waters into one of the most exciting five-tool prospects in the minors.  Waters, Atlanta’s second-round pick last year, has made enormous progress in his first stab at full-season ball and positioned himself as the Braves’ next superstar in waiting.

Although Waters’ speed, athleticism, and switch-hitting ability catapulted him into the first-round conversation last year, questions surrounding his power and overall ceiling pushed him down to the second round, where the Braves selected him with the 41^st overall pick. 

There have been two keys to Waters’ breakout in 2018.  First, and most importantly, has been his improved ability to make contact.  In 165 plate appearances at Danville in the Appalachian League last year (following a successful introductory stint in the Gulf Coast League), Waters’ K rate was a staggering 36 percent.  This season, in 304 PAs at Rome in the more challenging South Atlantic League—where, at 19, he’s more than two years younger than the average player—Waters has almost cut his K rate in half to 19 percent. 

Such drastic improvement is almost unheard of and portends well for Waters as he climbs the developmental ladder and faces more advanced pitching.

The second key to Waters’ emergence has been his growing power.  Once again, Waters has exhibited dramatic improvement in such a condensed time period.  After posting an isolated power of .128 at Danville, Waters has run his ISO all the way up to .220 at Rome.  Although the native Georgian has just 8 home runs after not quite two-thirds of the way through the 2018 campaign, his 26 doubles and six triples suggest that the balls Waters is now driving to the gaps will wind up over the fence in several years.

Assuming Waters continues to hone his offensive game in coming seasons, the rest of his skills portfolio should allow him to evolve into a budding superstar.  His 60 speed (on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale) means that he’ll be able to stick in center field, but his strong, accurate arm would permit a shift to right field in deference to Acuna. 

Waters’ speed has also been an asset on the basepaths, where he’s 15 for 18 in stolen bases.  And the 6-02, 185-pound Waters’ lithe physique should enable him to add strength without losing a step, thus making 20 steals a season probable and 30 thefts not out of the question.

Although Waters still has facets of his game that need improvement—namely his performance against southpaws, against whom he’s slashing only .202/.230/.286—his broad tool set combined with the substantial progress he’s made in such a short time could mean the Braves have yet another future star in their pipeline.