Lessons from the Indians-Padres Blockbuster

(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items.  For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era.  Here's the Amazon link:  goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)

In the June 21^st edition of Infield Chatter, we recommended that the Cleveland Indians, in an effort to plug their leaky bullpen, should should acquire reliever Kirby Yates from the San Diego Padres.  On Thursday, the Indians agreed to a swap with the Padres, but instead of picking up Yates, they went for the gusto and landed southpaw closer Brad Hand and lefty setup man Adam Cimber in exchange for catching prospect Francisco Mejia. 

This blockbuster has four fascinating subplots with reverberations that will be felt throughout baseball for the remainder of the season as well as in subsequent years.  

1) The Big Three in the A.L. are now the Big Four.

Prior to this trade, the Indians bullpen was the team’s Achilles heel and prevented the Tribe from being included in the conversation with the A.L.’s three “super teams,” the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox.  In the season’s first half, Cleveland’s bullpen had a 5.28 ERA, good for second-worst in all of baseball and better only than the lowly Royals. 

In Hand, Cleveland now has a Swiss Army knife for its beleaguered pen—he’s capable of multi-inning stints (10 of his 41 appearances have gone longer than an inning), he can close, and most importantly, he’s nails against both right-handed and left-handed hitters (he's held lefties to a .148 batting average while limiting righties to a .229 mark).

Indians fans should be excited about Cimber as well.  Though Cimber’s not as sexy as Hand, he’s been money in 2018 and will provide Indians skipper Terry Francona with a viable late-inning setup option.  Cimber is not an enforcer with a supersonic fastball; instead, he deploys his high-80’s sinker and high-70’s slider with immaculate precision to generate plenty of swings-and-misses as well as ground ball outs.  The 27-year-old Cimber also doesn’t walk anyone, as indicated by his pristine 5.1 K/BB ratio, and keeps the ball in the yard (just two long balls allowed).

Combine Cleveland’s postseason rotation quartet of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger, with a drastically improved bullpen (that would also be bolstered by the edition of #5 starter Shane Bieber), and you’ve got a pitching corps that will be able to shut down the Astros, Red Sox, or anyone else come October.

2) They're celebrating in the streets of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and South Beach.

With the Indians forced to cede a consensus top-25 prospect in Mejia, expect the Reds, Pirates, and Marlins to extract a bounty for Raisel Iglesias, FelipeVazquez, and Kyle Barraclough, respectively.

Look, as starters exit games earlier than ever—especially in the postseason—the value of relievers has skyrocketed, especially those who can erase both lefties and righties in late-inning, high-leverage situations and those under club control for multiple seasons.  And Iglesias, Vazquez, and Barraclough check both of those boxes.

Currently, the Cubs, who just placed closer Brandon Morrow on the DL, Red Sox, Braves, and Dodgers all have sizable holes in their bullpens that must be plugged.  And, as economics teaches us, when supply is less than demand…

3) The Indians’ window just got a little bigger.

Cleveland president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff made this trade with more than just 2018 in mind.  Injured setup man extraordinaire Andrew Miller and closer Cody Allen can both walk as free agents after this season, and, due to the escalating salaries of relievers, will likely leave small-market Cleveland.  But with Hand owed a reasonable $16.5 million thru 2020 with a $10 million option for 2021 and Cimber not even arbitration eligible, the Indians’ brain trust already has two future bullpen pieces in place.

Now combine all this with the fact that the Indians’ two best players, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, are still under control for years to come—including two team options, Ramirez’ contract runs through 2023 and Lindor will not become a free agent until after 2021—while all of Cleveland’s vaunted starters have nowhere to go until at least 2021.  In other words, don’t expect the Indians to go away anytime soon.

4) The Dodgers will have some stiff competition in 2021.

It’s quite possible that LA, owned by investment titan Guggenheim Partners, buoyed by billions in TV revenue, and run by arguably the sport’s sharpest front office, will continue to have a choke hold over the N.L. West much like the Yankees have dominated the A.L. for the last quarter century. 

But it’s also possible that the Padres, owners of baseball’s deepest farm system, will one day put a dent in the Dodgers’ plans. 

It wasn’t enough for the Friars to have a 19-year-old who’s evoked Manny Machado comparisons in Fernando Tatis Jr, a 21-year-old who scouts swear will win a batting title in Luis Urias, or an 18-year-old in Tirso Ornelas who’s already posting a higher-than-league-average OPS in full-season ball.  Nor were the Padres content with about a dozen high-ceiling pitching prospects dispersed throughout all levels of the minors.  Nah, Padres GM A.J. Preller felt compelled to add Mejia.  And all Mejia has done in his brief minor-league career is notch a 50-game hitting streak while batting just shy of .300 and flashing an arm that rates as at least 70 on the standard 20-80 scale.

While the Dodgers are the Best of the West in 2018, 2021 may be a far different story.

Drew Waters: The Braves’ next Mega Prospect?

(Before we begin, just a couple housekeeping items.  For those of you looking for some fun summer reading, please check out my new novel "Curving Foul" that takes a unique look at baseball's infamous PED era.  Here's the Amazon link:  goo.gl/rdnvQG Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @H_Frommer.)

Things have not been this good in the Atlanta Braves’ player development ranks in decades.  Uber phenom Ronald Acuna has made a significant contribution to the playoff-contending big-league club.  3B Austin Riley has hit with power while displaying Scott Rolenesque qualities on defense at AA and AAA.  And RHPs Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Ian Anderson, and a host of other minor league hurlers have made huge strides in 2018 as they position themselves to propel a burgeoning juggernaut into the 2020’s.

But the most overlooked development in the system so far this season has been the emergence of CF Drew Waters into one of the most exciting five-tool prospects in the minors.  Waters, Atlanta’s second-round pick last year, has made enormous progress in his first stab at full-season ball and positioned himself as the Braves’ next superstar in waiting.

Although Waters’ speed, athleticism, and switch-hitting ability catapulted him into the first-round conversation last year, questions surrounding his power and overall ceiling pushed him down to the second round, where the Braves selected him with the 41^st overall pick. 

There have been two keys to Waters’ breakout in 2018.  First, and most importantly, has been his improved ability to make contact.  In 165 plate appearances at Danville in the Appalachian League last year (following a successful introductory stint in the Gulf Coast League), Waters’ K rate was a staggering 36 percent.  This season, in 304 PAs at Rome in the more challenging South Atlantic League—where, at 19, he’s more than two years younger than the average player—Waters has almost cut his K rate in half to 19 percent. 

Such drastic improvement is almost unheard of and portends well for Waters as he climbs the developmental ladder and faces more advanced pitching.

The second key to Waters’ emergence has been his growing power.  Once again, Waters has exhibited dramatic improvement in such a condensed time period.  After posting an isolated power of .128 at Danville, Waters has run his ISO all the way up to .220 at Rome.  Although the native Georgian has just 8 home runs after not quite two-thirds of the way through the 2018 campaign, his 26 doubles and six triples suggest that the balls Waters is now driving to the gaps will wind up over the fence in several years.

Assuming Waters continues to hone his offensive game in coming seasons, the rest of his skills portfolio should allow him to evolve into a budding superstar.  His 60 speed (on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale) means that he’ll be able to stick in center field, but his strong, accurate arm would permit a shift to right field in deference to Acuna. 

Waters’ speed has also been an asset on the basepaths, where he’s 15 for 18 in stolen bases.  And the 6-02, 185-pound Waters’ lithe physique should enable him to add strength without losing a step, thus making 20 steals a season probable and 30 thefts not out of the question.

Although Waters still has facets of his game that need improvement—namely his performance against southpaws, against whom he’s slashing only .202/.230/.286—his broad tool set combined with the substantial progress he’s made in such a short time could mean the Braves have yet another future star in their pipeline.

Trade Fair: Fulmer and Castellanos Leave Motown for Disney

With MLB’s customary mid-summer trade winds starting to gust as we approach the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline, playoff contenders are once again scouring the market for pitching reinforcements that they hope will turn World Series dreams into reality come October.  Although the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim open play on Friday a distant 13.5 games behind the A.L. West-leading Houston Astros and 12 games in back of the Mariners, who are in pole position for the second wild card, don’t be shocked if the Halos aggressively pursue a headline pitching addition as well as other roster enhancements.   

At 38-51, the Detroit Tigers are buried in the standings and in the middle of a lengthy rebuild.  Thus, as Crazy Eddie used to say in the 1980’s, everything must go.  “Everything” in this case includes Michael Fulmer, Detroit’s ace, and Nick Castellanos, its third-place hitter and right fielder.

The Trade:  The Tigers trade Fulmer and Castellanos to the Angels for 1B Matt Thaiss, OF Brandon Marsh, and RHP Griffin Canning.

What the Angels are getting:  A frontline starter to aid a beleaguered rotation and a #3 hitter to slot behind Mike Trout.  While Fulmer’s 2018 numbers suggest that he hasn’t enjoyed the same success as his 2016 Rookie of the Year effort or last year, he still ranks 36th in Fangraphs WAR among MLB starting pitchers (thanks, Kurt Mensching), and he’s been posting career-high velocities on both his four seamer and sinker.  The 25-year-old would instantly become the ace of the Angels’ rotation and bolster a pitching corps that has been ravaged by injuries—six Angel pitchers have already underwent arm surgeries so far this year. 

Castellanos would give Angels Manager Mike Scioscia a lethal bat in the 3-hole.  His .305/.356/.519 slash line and 3.0 oWAR ensure that he’d be a massive upgrade over incumbent RF Kole Calhoun, whose .497 OPS ranks last in the A.L. at the position. 

Even if the Angels are unable to catch the Astros or Mariners this season, this trade would satisfy GM Billy Eppler’s main objective, which is to put the Halos in the best possible position to win before Trout’s contract expires after 2020.  Castellanos won’t become a free agent until after next season, while Fulmer will not be eligible to leave until after 2022.

What the Tigers are getting:  Detroit GM Al Avila is ssensible enough to realize that he’d never be able to pry OF Jo Adell, the crown jewel of the Angels system, away from southern California.  However, Thaiss, Marsh, and Canning are all highly-coveted prospects and their arrival in Detroit would greatly accelerate the Tigers’ rebuild.

 

Thaiss, 23, is a hitting machine who’s delivered at every minor league level and is now adding power to his game, as evidenced by his .223 isolated power (ISO) at AA and AAA this season.  With Victor Martinez likely retiring in October and Miguel Cabrera probably relegated to DH next year, Thaiss would enjoy a clear path to Comerica Park.

Marsh is the dynamo of the deal.  Just 20, he’s still more projection over performance but that gap has closed considerably in 2018.  A left-handed hitter, the 6-04 Marsh still has holes in his swing, but scouts are almost unanimous in the belief that Marsh could be a perennial .280 hitter who belts at least 20 home runs a season.  On defense, Marsh has a center fielder’s range but enough arm to play right field.

Canning, a second rounder in the 2017 draft, fell because of injury concerns that proved to be unfounded.  He’s shot up three levels this season as a velocity spike has enabled him to throw his fastball into the mid-90’s and his three other offerings all rate as at least major-league average.  Canning’s build, stuff, and superb command have evoked some comparisons to Zack Greinke; however, other evaluators view him as a solid #3 starter.  Nonetheless, he’d be a great add to Detroit’s already bountiful collection of pitching prospects.