Landing Spots for the Top 10 Non-Tendered Free Agents

 

On Wednesday evening, the 30 Major League clubs did not tender contracts to 59 players.  The list of players non-tendered reads like a who’s who of former top prospects and guys who have enjoyed ample success in the big leagues.  Earlier this week, we revealed our top 20 free agents along with predictions for where they would land.  Today, we do the same for the 10 best “non-tenders” who now are free agents themselves:

1) David Dahl, OF—Houston Astros:  This former 22^nd ranked prospect (Baseball America, 2015) has an All-Star Game appearance and three straight seasons with an OPS+ of 110 or higher on his resume.  And if the 2021 season begins on time, he’ll still be only 26.  If the Astros lose Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick, they’ll be in the market for a left-handed bat who can play multiple OF positions.  St. Louis, where corner OF starters Tyler O’Neill and Dexter Fowler had respective OPS+ marks of 68 and 92, is another possible destination.

2) Kyle Schwarber, DH/OF—New York Yankees:  Sure, with Giancarlo Stanton firmly entrenched as the DH and Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, and Luke Voit populating the corner OF and 1B positions, Schwarber seems like a poor fit in the South Bronx.  But then picture Schwarber’s pull-oriented left-handed swing peppering the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium for an easy 40 dingers and, suddenly, this marriage becomes a lot easier to imagine.  In yesterday’s New York Post, Joel Sherman explains how this could work.

3) Eddie Rosario, OF—Cleveland Indians:  Beauty’s in the eye of the beholder.  Although Rosario has exactly one season with a bWAR higher than 2.2, he seems like the second coming of Babe Ruth when compared to the Mario Mendoza clones that patrolled the Indians’ OF in 2020.  Don’t believe us?  Well, Rosario’s bWAR of 0.9 dwarfed the combined bWAR of -1.8 (yes, friends, that was a negative number) posted by the five Indians’ outfielders with the most ABs in 2020.  In other words, expect Cleveland to do something to fix its OF this winter and Rosario is as cost efficient a solution as you’ll find on the open market.  The Tigers, White Sox, and Red Sox head the list of other potential suitors.

4) Adam Duvall, OF/DH—Minnesota Twins:  He’s not sexy, but Duvall is a proven power source who can hold his own defensively.  He hit over 30 bombs in 2016 and 2017 and put another 26 in the seats in just 310 ABs in 2019-20, though his OBP has always been putrid.  Don’t be surprised if the Twins come calling if they and Nelson Cruz don’t reach a deal.

5) Carlos Rodon, LHP—Seattle Mariners:  A former third overall pick in 2014, Rodon never came close to fulfilling the lofty expectations we all harbored on draft night.  Still, he has a nuclear arsenal at his disposal and will only turn 28 next week.  The best fit for Rodon would be a team not expected to win in 2021 and thus comfortable throwing him out there every five days, even with occasional suboptimal results.  The Mariners make perfect sense.

6) Archie Bradley, RHP—Philadelphia Phillies:  The Phillies’ bullpen woes are baseball’s worst-kept secret, and Bradley is a high-upside arm that will come relatively cheap.

7) Hanser Alberto, 2B—St. Louis Cardinals:  Though Alberto isn’t near the player Kolten Wong has been in the past, don’t be shocked if the Red Birds play a little game of salary arbitrage, swapping Wong’s $12.5 million 2021 option for a salary not more than one-fifth that amount.

8) Nomar Mazara, OF—Detroit Tigers:  The Tigers will be vying for one of the free agent corner outfielders from a list that includes Joc Pederson, Rosario, and Dahl, with Mazara as the possible consolation prize.  As poor as Mazara’s 2020 was, he’s still a far better player than Christin Stewart, Detroit’s incumbent LF.  And he’s only 25.  According to The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen, Detroit briefly pursued a trade for Mazara last offseason.

9) Albert Almora, OF—New York Mets: The sixth overall pick from the 2012 draft, Almora’s bat has never developed as originally anticipated, and his inability to walk and lack of power likely mean his days as an everyday starter are over.  That said, his dazzling defense and youth (still 26) should make him appealing as a top-flight fourth OF to a host of playoff contending teams.  The Mets, especially if they don’t land George Springer, along with the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros all quickly come to mind.

10) Curt Casali, C—Seattle Mariners:  Casali has created a nice niche for himself as a back-up catcher who can catch one-third to one-half of his team’s games without embarrassing himself.  The Mariners could strike again—the team will be hesitant to rely solely on youngsters Luis Torrens and Cal Raleigh behind the dish as they continue to introduce an impressive stable of talented arms into the bigs.  Any team that loses out in the James McCann and Yadier Molina sweepstakes, such as the Mets, Phillies, and Cardinals, could also be in the running for the Vanderbilt alum.

Free Agency 2020-21: Where will they go?

With the world still mired in the COVID-19 pandemic, money tight following 2020’s bastardized 60-game season, and Major League Baseball possibly 12 short months away from labor Armageddon, there’s no better time than the present to handicap the destinations for this offseason’s 20 top free agents. 

Did we mention money is scarce?  According to Commissioner Ron Manfred, MLB’s 30 teams lost a combined $3 billion in 2020, a development which will surely adversely affect paydays this winter.  That said, the arrival of hedge fund mogul Steve Cohen in Queens and the likely December introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine (which should help ensure fans will be in the stands for most, if not all, of 2021), should at least partially mitigate the financial carnage. 

So, without further ado, let’s see where everyone goes:

1) George Springer, OF—New York Mets, 5 Years/$125 million:  Sure, he just turned 31, but Springer is this winter’s best all-round mercenary who’s showed no signs of aging.  And combine that with a new Mets owner (Cohen) who not only is richer than all of his contemporaries but also has an extra $20 million to burn following Robinson Cano’s second PED suspension.  Inking Springer will allow the Mets to upgrade their entire OF defense by putting Brandon Nimmo back in a corner slot.

2) J.T. Realmuto, C—Philadelphia Phillies, 5 Years/$120 million:  Signing a soon-to-be 30-year-old backstop to this mega contract as baseball remains stuck in a financial crevice may not seem like a good idea, but let’s not forget that the Phillies are not exactly in a position of strength.  Even after signing high-priced free agents Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler and trading for Realmuto during the last two offseasons, the Phillies haven’t been any better than mediocre.  Losing the 2-time All Star would just make the climb towards competitiveness that much steeper.

3) Trevor Bauer, RHP—New York Mets, 5 years/$140 million:  Yes, we’ve heard all the talk about Bauer’s desire to sign 1-year deals for the rest of his career, but seeing is believing.  A hotly contested bidding war will likely ensue for the services of the UCLA alum, with the likes of the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Yankees, Braves, and Blue Jays all vying for Bauer to grab their Montblanc.  But don’t sleep on the Metropolitans, who still have a hole in their pitching staff after Jacob DeGrom and will be buoyed by Cohen’s zillions.

4) D.J. LeMahieu, 2B—New York Yankees, 4 years/$72 million:  LeMahieu was little more than an afterthought when he signed with the Bronx Bombers following the 2018 season, but two Silver Slugger awards later, retaining the former LSU star is front and center on GM Brian Cashman’s to-do list.  Although he turns 33 next year, LeMahieu’s prowess on both offense and defense shouldn’t preclude him from securing a long-term deal.

5) Marcell Ozuna, DH/OF—Toronto Blue Jays, 3 years/$55 million:  The Blue Jays’ brain trust has gone on record this fall stating that it won’t shy away from big names, and following his resurgence in 2020, Ozuna is just the big bat Toronto needs to take the pressure off its young core.  The White Sox and Twins, assuming they don’t re-sign Nelson Cruz, will also be in play.  Finally, to date Manfred has not decided whether the NL will once again carry the DH, a development (or lack thereof) that will impact both Ozuna and Cruz. 

6) Michael Brantley, OF/DH—Atlanta Braves, 2 years/$30 million:  With Nick Markakis’ run as Atlanta’s RF most likely coming to an end and youngster Drew Waters not ready for prime time, Brantley would serve as a perfect stopgap for the Braves.  Despite turning 34 next May, Brantley is still well above average on both sides of the ball and shouldn’t break the bank.

7) Nelson Cruz, DH—Chicago White Sox, 2 years/$25 million:  Edwin Encarnacion struck out as Chicago’s resident veteran slugger, but the South Siders should have more luck with Cruz, as his stellar numbers would attest.  The presence of phenom Andrew Vaughn, which will make first baseman Jose Abreu the full-time DH sooner rather than later, would probably prevent Chicago from committing more than two years to Cruz.

8) Justin Turner, 3B—Los Angeles Dodgers, 2 years/$32 million:  As JP Morosi and Jim Bowden (subscription required) have recently pointed out, Rockies superstar Nolan Arenado could be an enticing option for the newly minted world champion Dodgers.  However, we urge caution—prior to the February trade for and extension of Mookie Betts, LA rarely pursued big ticket items.  And Turner, a Lakewood, CA native and Cal State Fullerton product, would like nothing more than to conclude his career with his hometown team.

9) Didi Gregorius, SS—Cincinnati Reds, 3 years/$45 million: New Reds GM Nick Krall is in a bind, guiding a small-market club with a closing window to contend.  Enter Gregorius, who’s an accomplished SS with a powerful bat tailor made for the Great American Bandb…err, we mean Ballpark.  Sir Didi would block prospect Jose Garcia, who could then be used as trade fodder to land a power bat or reliable starter.

10) Masahiro Tanaka, RHP—Washington Nationals, 1 year/$16 million:  We don’t see the 32-year-old Tanaka, who’s pitched for years with an elbow ligament tear, getting anything more than a 1-year deal.  The Nationals, who might lose their ace Max Scherzer to free agency after next season, seem like the ideal team to lure Tanaka with a pricey one-year contract.  The starting quartet of Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Tanaka might be just the fearsome foursome needed to pitch the Nats back into contention.

11) Joc Pederson, OF—Cleveland Indians, 2 years/$20 million:  The Tribe has gotten virtually no offense in recent years from its OF corps, and the signing of Pederson would change that.  While his difficulties against southpaws are well documented, he’s a legitimate 30-HR bat whose defense is best suited for a corner.

12) Andrelton Simmons, SS—Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years/$33 million:  Simmons’ once sterling dWAR numbers (as measured by Baseball Reference) declined every year in 2017-19; however, he’d still be a good consolation prize for Philadelphia if Gregorius leaves.

13) J.A. Happ, LHP—Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year/$13 million:  Happ has already spent parts of six seasons north of the border, including a banner 2016 campaign which saw him go 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and sterling 1.17 WHIP.  At 38 and coming off another fine—albeit abbreviated—season, he’d be the perfect guy for the Blue Jays to throw short term cash at.

14) Jake Odorizzi, RHP—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 1 year/$12 million:  Odorizzi looked like he had turned a corner in 2019, but suffered through an injury plagued 2020.  The Angels, desperate for pitching, would be the perfect team to entice the veteran righty with a “pillow” contract.

15) Kolten Wong, 2B—Washington Nationals, 2 years/$20 million:  It’s a sign of the times that Wong’s 2021 option for $12.5 million was not exercised by the Cardinals.  Just one year ago he was coming off a 5.2 bWAR season and looked like he’d be a bulwark in Mike Schildt’s lineup for years to come.  Wong’s speed and smooth defense would be an excellent fit for the Nationals as they try to claw their way back to respectability in the tough-as-nails NL East.

16) Liam Hendricks, RHP—Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years/$35 million:  This was perhaps the easiest connection on the whole list.  The Phillies desperately need a closer and Hendricks is the best one available.  End.  Of.  Story.

17) James Paxton, LHP—Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year/$12 million:  If there ever was a pillow contract candidate, this is the guy.  Paxton suffered through a nightmarish 2020 but boasts a solid track record, having averaged about 150 IP and 3.0 bWAR in 2017-2019.  The Jays would be eager to take a flyer on this high-upside native Canadian on a low-risk contract.

18) Marcus Semien, SS—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3 years/$35 million:  While most of the Angels’ efforts this offseason will be focused on landing some arms for their beleaguered rotation, they’ll also be forced to find a SS if Simmons leaves.  Semien’s profile isn’t all that dissimilar from Simmons’, but if his banner 2019 is any indication, he offers more offense.

19) Jackie Bradley Jr., OF—Houston Astros, 2 years/$20:  The Astros, faced with the prospect of losing Brantley and Josh Reddick from their OF corps this winter, could look to pounce on Bradley and his world-class glove in CF.  Bradley’s inconsistent bat would be at least partially offset by the emergence of Kyle Tucker and the rest of Houston’s high-powered lineup.

20) Trevor Rosenthal, RHP—Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3 years/$30 million:  Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Rosenthal was his old dominant self in 2020, which will set off a bidding war this winter.  Once again, the Angels, in an effort to build a winner during Mike Trout’s prime, will be poised to strike.