Friday: Covering the Bases

In a special post-Winter Meetings edition of Covering the Bases, let’s look at the five biggest winners and losers from what happened this week in Las Vegas.

The Five Biggest Winners:

1) New York Mets – Not only did they get Francisco Rodriguez, the most prolific closer in baseball, at the bargain basement price of three years/$37 million, but they also were able to land J.J. Putz and Sean Green without giving up anyone of substance. Props go out to GM Omar Minaya, who early on recognized how oversaturated the relief pitching market was. Now if Minaya can land two more starters, the Metropolitans will be in prime position to reclaim the N.L. East title in their inaugural season at Citi Field.

2) Greg Genske – C.C. Sabathia’s agent looks like a genius after his client’s supposed fascination with going home to California prompted Yankees GM Brian Cashman to raise the team’s offer by one year and $20 million to seven-years/$161 million – the highest ever awarded to a pitcher. Let’s face it, with the Brewers five-year/$100 million proposal the only other official offer out there, Cashman & Co. were essentially bidding against themselves.

3) Detroit Tigers – After trading two minor leaguers -- one with such an extensive injury history that he’s never pitched 100 innings in a season (Guillermo Moscoso) and another who’s so green he’s never thrown a pitch in North America (Carlos Melo) – for a significant upgrade at catcher in Gerald Laird, the Tigers signed defensive whiz Adam Everett for practically nothing. As we described in detail on Tuesday, Everett may not be the second coming of Alan Trammell, but he was far more cost efficient than Jack Wilson or any of the other options on the table. Finally, though they were forced to give up an intriguing young bat in outfielder Matt Joyce, the trade for 25-year-old flamethrower Edwin Jackson goes a long way to shoring up the back end of the Tigers’ ailing starting rotation. Now all GM Dave Dombrowski must do is find a suitable closer and the wheels could be turning in Motown once again.

4) Edgar Renteria – True, he was actually signed before the start of the meetings, but we’re still in a state of disbelief that a guy who had his second-worst offensive season in a 13-year career and played shortstop like he was in slow motion was able to secure a two-year/$18.5 million deal in what is supposedly a bear market. Shame on the power-starved Giants, who would have been far better served by keeping capable youngster Emmanuel Burriss at shortstop and instead inking an offensive minded outfielder like Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreu.

5) Tampa Bay Rays – Despite adding Joyce to their OF mix (and saving about $2 million in the process), Tampa Bay should be able to take advantage of the glut of OF/DH types and add a proven run producer to their improving lineup. The team has already held discussions with Abreu, Jason Giambi and Milton Bradley.

The Five Biggest Losers:

1) Francisco Rodriguez – He thought he was headed for a five-year/$75 million payday, but that was before the economy dove like one of his splitters and the closer market became oversaturated. On the bright side, he won’t even be 30 the next time he’s a free agent so he’ll most probably have at least one more opportunity to break the bank.

2) Brian Fuentes – As we saw with K-Rod, the monetary price of premier relief pitching has decreased considerably this offseason. And with the Indians and Mets out of the closer sweepstakes, Fuentes’ market has shrunk considerably. Don’t be surprised if the lefty is forced to take a much smaller-than-anticipated deal with the budget-conscious Tigers or Brewers or even return to Colorado.

3) Pittsburgh Pirates – With Rafael Furcal unable to find a taker, it’s doubtful that the Buccos will be able to unload Jack Wilson and his $7.25 million salary. According to various media reports, GM Neil Huntington was asking for an exorbitant return in exchange for the light-hitting shortstop and was unwilling to eat any portion of his salary. Now Huntington will have to eat the whole thing.

4) Manny Ramirez – Has somebody finally called Scott Boras’ bluff? With Dodgers GM Ned Colletti seemingly drawing a line in the sand and other suitors failing to emerge, it looks like Boras and Manny have backed themselves into a corner. We see one of two scenarios developing: first, Ramirez will re-sign with Los Angeles for far less (in terms of both dollars and years) than what he was originally seeking; second, the Dodgers will tell the slugger to go fly a kite, at which time he’ll field a four-year/$100 million dollar offer from Washington after the latter was rebuffed in its attempt to sign local boy Mark Teixeira.

5) Free agent outfielders – This consists of the “sub-Manny” group consisting of Abreu, Bradley, Dunn and Burrell. With supply far exceeding demand this winter, these four will be highly disappointed by both the dollar amounts and tenor of their new contracts. At the present time we see Abreu going to the Cubs, Bradley setting up shop in Tampa Bay, Dunn ending up in Washington and Burrell hitting between Jay Bruce and Joey Votto in Cincinnati.

The Roar May Be Back in Detroit

The Tigers had a great start to the Winter Meetings Monday, first obtaining catcher Gerald Laird from the Texas Rangers then signing free agent shortstop Adam Everett. The price for Laird was stiff – minor league right-handers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo. Moscoso, 25, had an excellent 2008 campaign, splitting time between High A and Double A. In 86.2 innings he used a 93-94 mph fastball along with an average curve and changeup to strike out 122 hitters while posting a sterling ERA of 1.94. If Moscoso impresses his new team out of the gate, he could be in Arlington by the All Star break. However, one note of caution with Moscoso is his durability. He underwent shoulder surgery in 2005 and has never pitched 100 innings in a season. Melo, only 17, is more of a long-term project. He has yet to pitch in North America, though he already boasts a mid-90’s fastball and at 6’3” 180 pounds he projects to add even more velocity as he matures. His offspeed stuff is still a work in progress.

Laird represents a clear upgrade over Pudge Rodriguez, who by last season had regressed considerably – both offensively and defensively – since signing with the Tigers in 2004. The 29-year-old has excellent catch-and-throw skills, is adept at blocking pitches in the dirt and received high marks for his handling of the Rangers’ pitching staff. At the plate, Laird can more than hold his own, which is all he’ll need to do in Detroit’s power-packed lineup. Though he doesn’t walk much, he makes good contact and has enough power to hit 15 home runs if he plays regularly. Laird also comes with a reasonable price tag. He earned just $1.6 million last season and still has two years before he’s eligible for free agency.

In Everett, the Tigers have signed an old-school, defense-first shortstop. He won’t hit much, but that’s not what he’s being paid to do. Instead, he’ll provide far more range than Edgar Renteria did and at a fraction of the price. To put the Everett signing into proper perspective, it’s important to note that multiple sources had the Tigers on the verge of trading either Matt Joyce or Jeff Larish, two burgeoning power hitters, for Jack Wilson and his $7.25 million salary. Everett, on the other hand, will cost Detroit a base salary of just $1 million and no prospects (or draft picks, for that matter). While Wilson has been slightly better than Everett on both sides of the ball, he’s certainly no Alan Trammell. Examining both players’ lifetime stats below, it’s evident that Everett, if he can stay healthy after an injury-riddled 2008 (Tiger scouts worked him out prior to signing him and deemed him fit to play), is by far the more cost-efficient acquisition.

AVE OBP SLG FP RANGE

.246 .298 .355 .976 4.21 (Everett)

.269 .312 .375 .978 4.68 (Wilson)

While the addition of Laird and Everett will significantly improve the Tigers’ defense, even more impressive was their low monetary cost. Combined, both players will earn approximately $4 million in base pay. That’s less than half of the $9 million the club paid Renteria for his subpar 2008 season. With this savings, the Tigers will be able to pursue a first rate closer – either Kerry Wood or J.J. Putz – and continue to lay the foundation for a revival in 2009.

Don't do it, Theo

Temptation can come in many forms. To the married man, it’s the stunning blonde sitting alone in the corner of the bar. To a car thief, it’s the late model BMW idling unattended in front of a convenience store. To the female shopaholic, it’s that Gucci handbag on sale at half price. To Theo Epstein, GM of the Boston Red Sox, it’s the slugging first baseman available this Christmas for a cool $150 million.

Mark Teixeira is clearly the marquee position player up for grabs in this winter’s free agent bazaar. In fact, he’s the best hitter available since the winter of 2000-01, when Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez were offering their services to the highest bidder. A switch-hitter with both power and patience, Teixeira’s line of .290/.378/.541 since he broke into the major leagues in 2003 is the best by a first baseman not named Albert Pujols. Oh, he’s also young (only 28 on Opening Day), an excellent fielder (two Gold Gloves) and durable (he’s averaged over 150 games per season).

So, with Teixeira’s sparkling resume and the mounds of cash Boston seemingly has to spend this winter, is there any reason why Epstein should not make the two-time Silver Slugger his primary offseason objective?

Yes, there’s actually one huge reason -- Teixeira can’t pitch.

Despite Boston’s burgeoning dynasty, which includes two world championships and five postseason appearances since 2003, the organization’s post-2010 pitching outlook outside of emerging ace Jon Lester isn’t as bright as one might think. Workhorse Josh Beckett, a free agent after 2010, could follow the likes of Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and others by shunning megabuck overtures and return to his native Texas; Daisuke Matsuzaka, his 18-3 record last season notwithstanding, consistently racks up high pitch counts due to poor command and failed to make it into the sixth inning in almost half his starts; Tim Wakefield is 42; Clay Buchholz has regressed significantly and is now being dangled as trade bait; and recent free agent signee Junichi Tazawa has never thrown a pitch in North America. Put simply, the acquisition of a proven, frontline starter would bolster the Red Sox’ rotation at a crucial time and all but ensure the team’s ability to contend well into the next decade.

Fortunately, ‘tis the season for Epstein & Co. In C.C. Sabathia, Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett, Boston has three studs to choose from this winter. Sabathia is obviously the main attraction. As his work down the stretch with the Brewers exhibited, he’s a money pitcher, a guy who’s capable of putting a team on his back and changing the entire dynamic of a pennant race all by himself. Though it’s no secret that the big lefty desires to pitch close to his California home, the Red Sox could throw a wrench into his plans if they extend an offer which approaches the 6-year/$140 million proposal already put out by the Yankees. If nothing else, a decision by Boston to enter the Sabathia sweepstakes would drive up the price for the Bronx Bombers and possibly prevent them from making other major acquisitions this winter.

Lowe is intriguing for several reasons. First, he’s already had success pitching in the Beantown pressure cooker, as evidenced by his excellent 52-27 record as a starter from 2002-04 and the stingy 3.09 ERA he posted in 61 postseason innings with the Red Sox. Second, he’s durable. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Lowe has never missed a turn and averaged nearly 211 innings a season.

Burnett has always been something of an enigma – he has first-rate stuff but only appears to stay healthy in the walk year of his contract. Still, given his electric arm and the success he’s enjoyed against the arch-rival Yankees (2.43 ERA in almost 80 career innings), he’d provide manager Terry Francona with the perfect right-handed foil to Lester.

The Red Sox likely don’t have enough money to sign both Teixeira and a pitcher from the Sabathia/Lowe/Burnett triumvirate; however, they’d have far less difficulty making do without Teixeira’s lumber. In Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Jason Bay and J.D. Drew, Boston has the strongest lineup in the A.L. East. And let’s not forget that Ortiz will have an entire winter to rest and rehabilitate the ailing wrist which caused him to suffer through a disappointing 2008. Nor should we neglect to mention third baseman Mike Lowell, who, after undergoing hip surgery this offseason, could very well return to his 120 RBI form from 2007.

There’s yet another player we feel compelled to bring up. That’s Boston’s first baseman of the future, Lars Anderson. Anderson, 21, breezed through High A and Double A in 2008 at a .317/.417/.517 clip and displayed a good eye as well as the ability to hit with power to all fields. While no prospect is ever a sure thing (see Burroughs, Sean), Anderson is as close as it gets. The left-handed slugger should be ready for prime time no later than 2010 and would offer the club at least replacement level production at the big league minimum of $400,000. This is in contrast to Teixeira, who would offer mouth watering numbers but at an eye popping cost. So with the Red Sox offense already a juggernaut and more help on the way, Teixeira would represent an unnecessary luxury whose exorbitant cost could prohibit the organization from addressing other areas of need. And in the bare knuckles world of the A.L. East such a serious miscalculation could have dire consequences, including the end of a golden era in Boston.

Don’t do it, Theo.

Friday: Covering the Bases

Lots of shortstop news this week…

· The full effect of the economic crisis was seen this week when the Yankees – the Yankees! – refused to offer arbitration to Bobby Abreu out of fear that it would result in the veteran outfielder receiving a one-year contract in the neighborhood of $16-18 million. Executives from both leagues think Abreu’s next deal will have a much lower annual value, perhaps as low as $8-10 million. That said, the Rays, who are in the market for an offensive-minded corner outfielder (preferably a right fielder), have to be paying particularly close attention to these recent developments. Don’t be surprised if the current economic malaise combined with the glut of corner outfielders on the market will continue to depress salaries, which, in turn, could cause an Abreu, Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell to fall right into Tampa’s lap.

· Multiple analysts have commented that the Padres’ trade yesterday of shortstop Khalil Greene to St. Louis would free up enough money to perhaps enable them to hang on to ace Jake Peavy (Greene is owed $6.5 million for 2009). Padres GM Kevin Towers sure hopes so because after yesterday a Peavy-to-Atlanta deal is far less likely. Not only is Greene no longer available to replace Yunel Escobar, who was long-rumored to be a component in any Padres-Braves deal, but former Braves prospect Brent Lillibridge’s inclusion in the Javier Vazquez trade takes yet another possible Escobar replacement out of the equation.

· Yesterday was not a good day for free agent Rafael Furcal, who saw his market shrink considerably. With St. Louis (Greene) and San Francisco (Edgar Renteria) both addressing their needs, Oakland is left as the only obvious landing spot for Furcal. And A’s GM Billy Beane, being the smart cookie that he is, is never one to bid against himself.

· And, finally, the Jack Wilson-to-Detroit trade rumors never made any sense. Not only is the $7.25 million Wilson is owed next year well out of the Tigers’ price range, but Wilson would have cost GM Dave Dombrowski at least one mid-level prospect (multiple sources have suggested that slugging corner infielder Jeff Larish was coveted by the Pirates). If Dombrowski continues to look externally to fill the team’s shortstop void, the name which makes the most sense is free agent Adam Everett. He’s cheap, won’t cost the team any prospects or draft picks and would likely accept a one-year deal. However, we here at Infield Chatter advocate the team shifting incumbent third baseman Brandon Inge to shortstop, moving Carlos Guillen from left field to third base and replacing Guillen with a Matt Joyce/Marcus Thames platoon. This alignment would help preserve Guillen’s back and knee while taking advantage of Inge’s range.

A Giant Mistake by Sabean

Earlier this afternoon the San Francisco Giants announced that they had signed veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria to a two-year contract worth $18.5 million. This will prove to be a deal Giants GM Brian Sabean winds up regretting for years to come. Renteria is coming off a horrific season – not only was his .270/.317/.382 line the second worst of his 13-year career, but his range and arm have both diminished to the extent that he has become a defensive liability. It’s possible that Sabean has based his decision on the fact that Renteria enjoyed stellar seasons in 2006-07 with Atlanta after returning to the National League following a subpar 2005 with the Red Sox. We here at Infield Chatter, however, don’t expect history to repeat itself. Let’s not forget that Renteria played most of 2005 at 29; he’ll turn 34 in August. While we’re not accusing the five-time All Star of any foul play whatsoever, it’s become evident that thirty-somethings haven’t exactly aged gracefully since baseball enacted its strict anti-PED/amphetamine policy several years ago.

Even if Renteria does bounce back to the tune of his career .290/.347/.407 line, it’s doubtful that he alone will do much to reverse the Giants’ 72-90 record from 2008. The Giants’ primary Achilles Heel last season was not at shortstop (more on that in a minute). Instead, it was an utterly pathetic offense – an offense which hit just 94 home runs (25 percent less than the next closest team), was second-to-last in SLG and runs scored and third-to last in OBP. So, rather than wasting a fortune on a shortstop whose best days are likely far behind him, Sabean would have been much better served by taking advantage of the glut of corner outfielders on the market and signing a legitimate power threat like Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn or an on-base machine like Bobby Abreu for little more (both in dollars and in years) than what he squandered on Renteria. That would have been the most obvious way for the team’s longtime GM to steer the team back to respectability in 2009.

Ironically, if there was a bright spot in the Giants’ lineup in 2008, it was at shortstop, where promising youngster Emmanuel Burriss hit a healthy .283 in 95 games and posted a .357 OBP. The 23-year-old also showed excellent speed (13 steals) to go along with well above average range and a strong arm. Simply put, he was a far better player than Renteria. And at a pro rated salary of $390,000 he was much cheaper. The arrival of Renteria will relegate Burriss to the bench and stunt the kid’s development – not an insignificant development given that Burriss was supposed to spearhead a group of talented position prospects, including 2008 1st round pick Buster Posey, that is perhaps the best the team has assembled in decades. As a result, it turns out that the Bay might not be the only thing that’s foggy in San Francisco. So too might be the Giants’ chances in 2009. And even in 2010 and beyond.

It's a Brave New World for Vazquez

The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox earlier today formally announced the completion of the winter’s second blockbuster trade. Atlanta has received veteran right-hander Javier Vazquez and lefty reliever Boone Logan in exchange for a package of four prospects, the stud among them being 22-year-old catcher Tyler Flowers.

With the winter meetings still days away and over $40 million of spare change burning a hole in his pocket, it’s obvious that Braves GM Frank Wren is just getting started. That said, it’s unfair at this juncture to evaluate this trade from Atlanta’s perspective. What we do know, however, is that despite gaudy minor league statistics and extraordinary talent, Vazquez has never enjoyed the sustained major league success so many had predicted for him when he broke into the big leagues a decade ago. He’s posted a very pedestrian 127-129 record, surrendered an average of almost 30 home runs in each of his nine full major league seasons and has regularly had his heart and ability to perform under pressure questioned on a routine basis. Still, the 32-year-old offers a precious commodity that scores of GMs, managers and pitching coaches would kill for: reliability. Since 2000, Vazquez has never made less than 32 starts or thrown under 198 innings. This is of vital importance for a team like the Braves, who in 2008 had to rely on the likes of Chuck James (9.10 ERA last season), Charlie Morton (6.15) and Jo-Jo Reyes (5.81), while the supposed Big Three of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Tim Hudson missed a combined 57 starts. And, finally, it has to be encouraging for the Braves that Vazquez will be returning to the National League, where in five full seasons he’s posted a very respectable 3.80 ERA. This is in contrast to the 4.54 ERA he’s delivered in four years in the American League.

So, now that we’ve established that Javier Vazquez would serve as a very effective middle-of-the rotation innings-eating starter in the N.L., it becomes imperative for the Braves to land a bonafide ace in order for this trade to be deemed a success. Jake Peavy, who Wren has been trying to wrestle away from the Padres since the end of the end of the regular season, is the ideal candidate. He’s young (27), a stud, and, by virtue of his long-term contract (guaranteed $62 million through 2012) represents cost certainty. After Peavy, there’s a substantial drop-off. Free agent Derek Lowe is reliable and clutch, but he’ll be 36 in June and has never been a true ace with the ability to miss bats at will. Fellow free agent A.J. Burnett has shut-down stuff, but he’s been a giant enigma his entire career and only risen to the occasion in his walk years.

From the White Sox perspective, the success of this transaction will primarily hinge on whether Flowers fulfills his vast potential. The 6’4” 250 pound power plant had an excellent 2008, including 12 home runs and an otherworldly 1.433 OPS in 75 at bats in the Arizona Fall League. He projects to hit at least 25 home runs a season at the big league level as well as post a solid OBP due to excellent pitch recognition. His defense, however, is another story. He has a below average arm in addition to poor receiving skills. If he can somehow improve his subpar defensive to the point where he’s at least adequate behind the dish, he’d be a noticeable upgrade over current backstop A.J. Pierzynski, whose current contract expires after 2010. Flowers was deemed redundant by the Braves, who already have three-time All Star Brian McCann locked up through 2012.

None of the three other prospects acquired by the Braves jump out at you as deal makers. Shortstop Brent Lillibridge, 25, is a decent fielder with slightly above average pop who will likely max out as a middle-of-the-field utilityman. Jon Gilmore is a 20-year-old third baseman who has put up good numbers in two years of short season ball. Some scouts project him as a Joe Crede-type performer, but he’s at least four years away and will have to improve his pitch recognition as he moves up the ladder. Santos Rodriguez, also 20, is a lanky lefty from the Dominican who throws in the mid-90’s and struck out nearly 14 batters per nine innings in 14 relief appearances the Gulf Coast League. Spotty control and poor command of his breaking pitch indicate that he’s also years away from making any kind of impact at the major league level.

Don’t be surprised if this deal is also prelude to something significantly bigger for Chicago GM Kenny Williams, who seemingly always has something up his sleeve. In trading away Nick Swisher and Vazquez, Williams has freed up nearly $17 million of salary from the White Sox 2009 payroll (Vazquez will earn $11.5 million in 2009) and shed $28.25 million in post-2009 obligations. If this is indeed the case, Hotlanta won’t be the only place the stove is simmering this offseason.

Rain Delay Is Over

Hey everyone. It's been over a week since my last post and I apologize. Unfortunately, my computer crashed due to a terminally ill hard drive and I was forced to shut down the presses. Fear not, however, as I'm up and running again with a new machine and should be posting fresh columns well before the start of the Winter Meetings on Sunday. Thanks for your patience.